3 pivotal spring storylines for Blue Jays

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- You’ve made it. The long winter is over and the Blue Jays are back in Florida, the sound of cleats on concrete filling their player development complex once again.

The Blue Jays’ offseason ended better than it began, but this is still a team that needs a lot of things to go right -- and all at the same time -- in 2025.

As pitchers and catchers gather for their first workout on Thursday, here are the three biggest storylines in Blue Jays camp.

1. The future of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Obviously.

Guerrero’s decision hangs over this camp, and if he sticks to his negotiating deadline of the first day of full-squad workouts, the clock is ticking on the Blue Jays. Until then, Guerrero’s contract status adds a “but” to every conversation we’ll have about this team.

Yes, Toronto has added some good players this offseason, but what does 2026 and beyond look like if Guerrero leaves via free agency? It feels like the next decade of this franchise is tied to Guerrero, who has said openly that he wants to stay with this organization long term. The Blue Jays have shown that they have the money to make that happen, most notably with their unsuccessful pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto.

Is Guerrero either of those players? No. But if the Blue Jays let Guerrero get to free agency and lose him there, the organization could spend years looking for the next Vladdy.

2. Where will the rest of the offense come from?
If we narrow our focus to the 2025 season alone, this is the make-or-break question. The Blue Jays ranked 23rd in runs scored last season (671), and while they were one of the best defensive teams in the Majors, they asked far too much from their pitching staff. If that happens again, this season will likely end up in the exact same spot.

Bo Bichette needs to be the face of the offensive turnaround. If Vladdy can once again be Vladdy, that’s a fine start, but Bichette bouncing back from a .599 OPS over just 81 games in an injury-riddled 2024 season is the biggest factor. Toronto needs Bichette back to being a .300 hitter with power, and with free agency also dangling in front of him, there won’t be any lack of motivation.

The Blue Jays need a surprise breakout, too. This is intentionally vague, but it doesn’t matter if it comes from No. 89 overall prospect Orelvis Martinez (Toronto's 2024 No. 2 prospect) or a Triple-A journeyman you haven’t heard of yet. The club has done well to produce its own depth pieces, particularly on the infield, but it needs someone capable of raising the lineup’s ceiling. Along with Martinez, Addison Barger has the eye-popping (and shirt-ripping) physical tools to make this happen, but we need to see that come together against big league pitching. Alan Roden (Toronto's 2024 No. 12 prospect) already feels like the darling of Spring Training and you’ll see plenty of him in Grapefruit League action.

This lineup, simply put, needs a success story. Not just another big leaguer, but someone who can win a few ballgames with a few swings along the way.

3. A big, big year for the farm system
This feels like the 10th year in a row I’ve written that this is a big year for the Blue Jays’ farm system -- but this one really is.

Last season was downright brutal on the injury front, particularly when it came to pitchers. The loss of Ricky Tiedemann (Toronto's 2024 No. 4 prospect) to Tommy John surgery was a real blow, given that the club envisioned him being a high-impact piece down the stretch had everything gone well. That’s all this organization needs to get rolling -- just one development success story that can begin to snowball -- but injuries have gotten in the way far too often.

Now, with Arjun Nimmala (No. 87 overall), Trey Yesavage (No. 88 overall) and a truckload of new prospects from the 2024 Trade Deadline, the Blue Jays’ development team has another crack at it. Yes, they need to develop prospects to help now, but if Guerrero and Bichette walk in free agency, who is the next Guerrero? Who is the next Bichette? There needs to be another potential core, similar to how the Orioles have now cashed in on and like the Red Sox have coming.

There’s also a world in which the Blue Jays exceed expectations this year and need to add at the Trade Deadline, taking one more big swing with Guerrero and Bichette in blue. No matter how this plays out, this team needs its farm system.