3 storylines to watch as Phillies camp begins

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Phillies will open Spring Training on Wednesday with perhaps 23 of 26 jobs already set on the projected Opening Day roster.

It doesn’t leave much room for intrigue, but it doesn’t mean camp will be boring.

Far from it.

Let’s start with the big picture: the Phillies are the defending National League East champions. They won 95 games in the regular season, second only to the Dodgers (98). But they played .500 baseball in the second half, then lost in four games to the Mets in the NL Division Series. They didn’t make a massive splash in the offseason, either.

But the Phils still have the second-highest payroll in the Major Leagues, saying repeatedly that they already have the players needed to win a World Series. They spent the offseason instead trying to improve along the edges. They got left-hander Jesús Luzardo to fortify the rotation, which could be the best in baseball. In left field, they added Max Kepler, who has been productive when he is healthy. They got Jordan Romano and Joe Ross to restock a bullpen that lost Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman.

They believe it is good enough to win.

The Phillies will need to stay healthy, of course. (Every team says that in the spring.) If they do, there is no reason they cannot win the NL East again and challenge the World Series-champion Dodgers for the NL pennant.

Against that backdrop, here are three storylines to watch this spring:

1. Ranger Suárez

This could be the biggest year of Suárez’s life.

How so? He will be a free agent after the season, and the bigger the year, the bigger the payday. Suárez, 29, pitched like an NL Cy Young frontrunner in his first 16 starts last season, going 10-2 with a 1.83 ERA, then made his first NL All-Star team. But injuries hit -- he had right hamstring, back and left shoulder issues -- and he looked like a completely different pitcher down the stretch.

In fact, he had a 6.54 ERA in his final 11 starts.

If Suárez returns to form, cha-ching. If he scuffles because of conditioning or health issues, it could cost him tens of millions in free agency. Maybe more. So keep an eye on Suárez this spring. He should be more motivated than ever to put together a complete season. If he does, NL hitters should watch out.

2. The bounce-backers

The Phillies have exceeded the fourth luxury tax threshold, which carries a 110 percent penalty for every dollar spent over $301 million. It explains why they did not sign a single free agent to a multiyear contract: Kepler (one year, $10 million), Romano (one year, $8.5 million) and Ross (one year, $4 million).

Luzardo is under team control through the 2026 season. He will make $6.225 million this year.

Kepler, Romano and Luzardo are coming off injury-plagued seasons. Kepler had a .682 OPS and 91 OPS+ in 399 plate appearances with Minnesota, fighting a core injury that required surgery in October. Can he stay healthy in 2025? Kepler has not had more than 491 plate appearances in a season since 2019. Can he hit lefties? He has a career .778 OPS against righties and a .655 OPS against lefties. The Phillies are banking on both, calling Kepler their everyday left fielder.

Luzardo went 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 12 starts with Miami. He didn’t pitch after June 16 because of a stress reaction in his lower back. Luzardo said he is 100 percent healthy. If he is, the Phils think he will return to prior form. He went 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts in 2023, starting Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Phillies.

Romano went 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA in 15 appearances with Toronto. He didn’t pitch after May 29 because of an injured right elbow, which required surgery. Romano comes into camp healthy. Again, the Phils believe he will return to form after he was an All-Star closer for the Blue Jays in 2022-23.

Do Kepler, Luzardo and Romano look healthy this spring? Are they performing well? The Phillies need them to be contributors this season to get to where they want to go.

3. The kids

The Phillies were mindful of their payroll this offseason, but they were also mindful of their prospects. Because of long-term payroll commitments to several stars -- including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola -- and the impending free agencies of Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Suárez, the Phils held onto their top prospects. They’ll need them to begin contributing as early as this year and to provide future payroll flexibility.

Three of the Phillies’ four prospects on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list will be in camp this spring: right-hander Andrew Painter (No. 8), shortstop Aidan Miller (No. 27) and center fielder Justin Crawford (No. 64). Painter could join the rotation this summer. Miller and Crawford are further away, but strong seasons in the Minors could accelerate their timelines.

Fans probably won’t see much of them this spring. (The Phillies already said Painter won’t pitch in any Grapefruit League games.) But any moments they have on the field should be fun to watch.