This story was excerpted from John Denton¡¯s Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
JUPITER, Fla. -- Broken -- somewhat literally and figuratively -- early in the 2024 season following a fifth stint on the injured list in less than two years, a disconsolate Lars Nootbaar sought some answers and peace of mind via a full-body scan.
¡°I needed to know if my bones were actually bones,¡± Nootbaar said, half-jokingly and half-seriously at the time.
When Nootbaar passed that full-body scan, he chalked up all that had happened to him over the past two seasons to sheer dumb luck. A thumb injury came about when he slid headfirst into third base in the 2023 season opener. Later that season, Nootbaar hurt his back when he fell into the center-field wall, and he injured his groin upon fouling a ball below the belt.
Unfortunately for Nootbaar, the 2024 season didn¡¯t offer any solace either. He fractured two ribs in Spring Training when his arm jammed into his midsection at the wall. Finally back from that injury, Nootbaar then tore an oblique muscle after checking his swing. He beat himself up mentally for the injuries and questioned everything from his winter workouts to his body composition. Looking back, Nootbaar knows now that his injuries were mostly just freakish occurrences.
¡°Weird, weird things have happened, weird stuff that has never happened before,¡± Nootbaar said. ¡°You don't want to have any excuses or anything like that. You just want to go in and make sure you're good. If I can get 140 or 150 [games in 2025], I think I can help this team out.¡±
Based on the past two seasons, Nootbaar and the Cardinals are hopeful that the talented outfielder is due for a stretch of good luck. If Nootbaar can play 140 or 150 games, St. Louis is confident that he can fulfill his seemingly enormous potential. Even in two injury-marred seasons -- where he played in just 117 games in 2023 and 109 games in ¡®24 -- Nootbaar had the kind of underlying metrics to suggest that much more is left in the tank.
He had hard contact on 21.9% of his swings in 2024, a stat that placed him just behind superstars Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., per Baseball Savant. His 16.9% chase rate was the lowest among 214 batters who saw as many out-of-the-zone pitches as he did. To boot, Nootbaar ranked in the 98th percentile in walk rate (12.8%), adding a 17.8% blasted-swing rate (a combination of a fast swing and a barreled-up ball), tied with National League MVP Award winner Shohei Ohtani.
¡°It tells me that there¡¯s a lot of good in there, but there¡¯s also something missing because I¡¯m not those players,¡± Nootbaar said candidly. ¡°Where the disconnect is, as an athlete, you work to try and find that. I have a pretty good idea of what it is -- and executing it, of course, is the toughest part. But it does leave me thinking that there¡¯s something in there that maybe I can achieve. It makes you hungry and want to figure out how to get there.¡±
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol knows there¡¯s a large gap between a projection and production, but he thinks more quantity will eventually lead to better quality from Nootbaar. Asked what a Nootbaar season could look like with 140-to-150 games played, Marmol dared to dream.
¡°It could be special,¡± Marmol said. ¡°He¡¯s worked hard at it and when you look at his batted-ball profile, it¡¯s at the top of the league and his swing decisions are really good. You put that together and you have a solid player. He¡¯s worked hard for this season and I¡¯m excited to see it.¡±
Where that excitement comes from in the lineup is undecided. With Nootbaar¡¯s high walk rate and a career on-base percentage of .348, Marmol is tempted to slot him into the leadoff spot. Analytical types suggest that he should hit second, the spot usually reserved for a team¡¯s most complete hitter. However, after his first Spring Training homer in Saturday's 9-5 win over the Blue Jays, his seven RBIs in Grapefruit League action suggest he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order producer.
At this point, Nootbaar doesn¡¯t care where he hits as long as he is free of the injuries that have haunted him. He also lets himself dwell on the player he can possibly become, but he doesn¡¯t want to get too far ahead of himself yet.
¡°Yeah, I think about that, but there are lots of ups and downs throughout every season,¡± Nootbaar said. ¡°For me, I really think just being out there will solve a lot of problems. My mentality this spring has been just getting after it and trying to make sure there¡¯s no holding back. I want to let everyone know I¡¯m ready to do it this year.¡±