NEW YORK -- For the first time in a long time, the Mets have a bevy of well-rested starting pitching options heading into the National League Championship Series.
It’s a blessing for the Mets, who have spent most of the last three weeks turning to whichever starter happened to be rested enough to pitch. But it has also created a scenario in which team officials now must choose between three reasonable options for NLCS Game 1: Kodai Senga, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
“We’re having these conversations,” manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday, before his team held a closed-door workout at Citi Field. “We need to talk to some of the players, and we’ve got to check how some of those guys are feeling, and then we’ll make a decision.”
Mendoza said he plans to announce his decision on Saturday.
The case for Manaea is clear: He’s been the Mets’ best pitcher since late July, he’s coming off one of the most impactful starts of his life in NLDS Game 3, and he has pitched his best on regular rest. Manaea had a 2.86 ERA on four days during the regular season, versus a 3.87 mark when given an extra day or more.
But using Manaea for Game 1 would create significant gaps between starts for other rotation members, which isn’t always ideal. Senga hasn’t started since Oct. 5 and would be going on eight days’ rest if he started Game 2. Severino is in a similar situation, not having pitched since Oct. 6.
Senga is a unique case, given that he threw two innings and 31 pitches in NLDS Game 1 -- his first action since straining his left calf in July. Senga will be part of the Mets’ NLCS rotation in some form, but his next start will only last around three innings and 45-odd pitches. That means the Mets must back him up with a long man such as David Peterson or Tylor Megill.
Therefore, starting Senga in Game 1 would require the team to give significant innings to a relatively unproven pitcher, such as Megill, or to burn Peterson -- who has suddenly emerged as a top bullpen weapon in high-leverage spots -- for multiple innings early in the series.
Finally, there’s Severino, who could probably benefit as much as anyone from a bit of extra rest. Counting his two playoff starts, Severino has produced a 5.14 ERA over his last five outings. He has already thrown over 100 more innings than he did last year. But if the Mets wait until NLCS Game 3 to start him, he’d be going on nine days’ rest -- an extended layoff that brings its own set of challenges.
(Jose Quintana, who pitched five innings in NLDS Game 4, is likely to start NLCS Game 4 given all the other factors at play.)
About the only thing that won’t affect Mendoza’s decision is whether the Mets play the Dodgers or the Padres in the NLCS. Specific matchups aren’t a factor, the manager said.
“We’re going to make the decision that we feel is best for our team -- whether it’s keeping some of the guys on their routines or giving some of the guys some extra rest,” Mendoza added. “I’m going to check with some of the guys and have those conversations with them, and then make that final decision. But we have an idea. We have different routes that we could go.”