If things had gone the way people thought it would in 2023, Chase Dollander would not be preparing for his Major League debut with the Colorado Rockies on Sunday.
After a year at Georgia Southern in 2021, Dollander moved to Tennessee and was absolutely lights out as a sophomore, leading to him ranking No. 2 on MLB Pipeline＊s Draft Top 100 that comes out the December before that season. That＊s right, Dollander was two spots ahead of Paul Skenes, who of course would go on to be the No. 1 overall pick in the ＆23 Draft.
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But the 2022 Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Year did not repeat his success as a junior. The stuff was all still there, but his consistency in execution was lacking at times. It＊s not like he was walking guys left and right, but his BB rate did jump from 1.5/9 in 2022 to 3.0 in his Draft year, and gave up a lot more hits as his command within the zone faltered.
Because of his up-and-down season, Dollander slid a tiny bit, leaving him available for the Rockies to take at No. 9 overall in the '23 Draft. The hope was that the right-hander would be able to rediscover the sophomore version of himself on the mound under pro instruction, that some tweaks to his mechanics could help him re-find the pitch shape and sharpness that made him arguably the best college pitcher in the country in 2022.
Well, that＊s turned out well, hasn＊t it? There were scouts who saw Dollander during his first full season of pro ball in 2024, one that saw him make 14 High-A and 9 Double-A starts and finish with a combined 2.59 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and .215 BAA, and thought he was the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. That＊s why he＊s jumped from No. 52 on the 2024 Top 100 to his current spot at No. 24, No. 5 among all right-handed pitching prospects.
His long look this spring as he competed for a spot in the Rockies rotation may have resulted in uneven surface stats, but he whetted the appetite of the big league staff enough to know that his stuff would play at the big league level when the need arose. That turned out to be this weekend as Austin Gomber＊s return from injury has taken longer than anticipated.
The stuff, just like it was last year, was elite this spring. He averaged just over 97 mph with his fastball and flirted with triple digits, according to Synergy, after averaging nearly 96 mph during his first full season. Hitters don＊t square it up as he uses his approach angle and extension to his advantage with impressive induced vertical break. When he locates it up in the zone, it can be unhittable. It didn＊t miss bats this spring, but it did at a 35-percent clip in 2024.
Not only does Dollander have three at least above-average secondary offerings, he really knows how to use them, using all quadrants of the zone well. He＊s tinkered with slider grips in the past and it＊s a strikeout pitch in the upper-80s at its best. When he doesn＊t have as good feel for it, as was the case at times last year, he can go to his upper-70s curve to get ahead and miss bats. He shows good fade on his upper-80s changeup as well.
Dollander has always been athletic on the mound and he told MLB Pipeline＊s Jim Callis this spring that one of the keys to his success on the pro side had been his ability to regain his fluidity in his delivery. He＊s a learner, too, one who takes the lessons 每 from his inconsistent season at Tennessee to his up-and-down Cactus League outings 每 and makes adjustments quickly. The combination of stuff, feel and competitiveness all point to him not getting sucked into the pitching abyss that has absorbed many a young pitcher in Coors Field.
The Rockies＊ starting rotation 每 four until Dollander pitches Sunday 每 has gotten off to a very good start, leading the National League in ERA heading into this weekend series against the A＊s. But it would be very hard to argue that Dollander isn＊t one of the best five options afforded to Bud Black the rest of the year.