Projection rollouts are a staple of the baseball offseason, with multiple sites providing data-driven forecasts for how the upcoming season will play out.

With Spring Training rapidly approaching, we now have projected standings from two of the most trusted sources around: Baseball Prospectus¡¯ PECOTA and FanGraphs, which uses a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems.

The PECOTA projections can be found here, and the FanGraphs projections here and here.

While the two are in agreement on a lot this year, they don¡¯t see eye to eye on everything.

In terms of playoff odds, six clubs have a disparity of more than 15 percentage points between the two sites. Here¡¯s a breakdown of those six teams, listed in order based on the size of the gap, starting with the largest.

Playoff odds are as of Feb. 6

1. Red Sox: 37.3-point difference
FanGraphs: 51.0% | PECOTA: 13.7%

Although the Red Sox finished the 2024 season with a .500 record and have made the playoffs only once in six years since they won the 2018 World Series title, they are poised to enter the upcoming campaign with renewed optimism.

A big part of that is due to the arrival of ace Garrett Crochet, who joins fellow 2024 All-Stars Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck on Boston's roster after being acquired from the White Sox in December. The Red Sox also have three of baseball¡¯s top 12 prospects (per MLB Pipeline) in Roman Anthony (No. 2), Kristian Campbell (No. 7) and Marcelo Mayer (No. 12), all of whom are expected to arrive in the Majors at some point this year.

Nevertheless, PECOTA is pessimistic about Boston¡¯s playoff chances, projecting the club to finish in last place with a 78-84 record. In contrast, FanGraphs gives the Red Sox the second-best playoff odds of any team in the American League East, behind only the Yankees, and projects them to capture an AL Wild Card spot.

2. Orioles: 31.6-point difference
PECOTA: 75.6% | FanGraphs: 44.0%

The Orioles¡¯ youthful roster has made back-to-back playoff appearances, but the team is facing a number of major questions entering 2025. Finding a way to replace the production they lost when ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and power-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander departed as free agents is perhaps the biggest concern, with new additions Tyler O'Neill, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano facing significant pressure to step up.

PECOTA projects the Orioles to overcome the losses of Burnes and Santander and challenge the Yankees for AL East supremacy. FanGraphs, though, sees things differently, ranking the O¡¯s eighth among AL clubs in terms of playoff odds.

3. Cubs: 30.5-point difference
PECOTA: 85.8% | FanGraphs: 55.3%

After four straight seasons without a playoff appearance, the Cubs have been one of the game's most active clubs this offseason, with outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Ryan Pressly headlining their long list of acquisitions. Meanwhile, the reigning National League Central-champion Brewers have lost both shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams, putting a serious dent in their postseason chances.

While both FanGraphs and PECOTA expect Chicago to take the division crown in 2025, the two disagree on the gap between the Cubs and the rest of the NL Central. FanGraphs sees the race as much closer, with roughly three games separating the Cubs and Brewers, while PECOTA predicts a 10-game disparity between those two teams and gives Chicago the third-shortest playoff odds of any MLB club behind the Dodgers and Braves.

4. Tigers: 23.8-point difference
FanGraphs: 46.9% | PECOTA: 23.1%

The Tigers made a shocking run to the playoffs in 2024, clinching their first postseason berth in a decade despite finding themselves eight games below .500 on the morning of Aug. 11. Detroit went on to upset the Astros in the AL Wild Card Series and took the Guardians to five games in the AL Division Series before its magical journey came to an end.

Looking to build on that success, the Tigers brought in second baseman Gleyber Torres, starters Jack Flaherty (per a source) and Alex Cobb and reliever Tommy Kahnle via free agency, adding them to a roster that already included reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, talented outfielder Riley Greene and a deep bullpen. But while FanGraphs expects the Tigers to be in the AL Wild Card mix once again, PECOTA views Detroit as a sub-.500 club entering 2025.

5. Mets: 18.5-point difference
PECOTA: 84.5% | FanGraphs: 66.0%

Despite reaching last year¡¯s NL Championship Series and putting together a banner offseason headlined by the Juan Soto signing and capped by Wednesday's deal to bring back first baseman Pete Alonso (per a source), the Mets are not viewed as the NL East favorite by either FanGraphs or PECOTA entering 2025. Neither is the team that won the division in 2024, the Phillies. Instead, both sites have the Braves out in front.

Where the two differ is in the size of the gulf between the Braves and Mets. PECOTA projects a much closer race, with the Phillies lagging behind in third place. FanGraphs' projections, meanwhile, have Atlanta in first place by a comfortable margin, with New York and Philadelphia in a tight battle for second.

6. Rangers: 17.5-point difference
PECOTA: 76.5% | FanGraphs: 59.0%

Coming off a World Series championship in 2023, Texas faltered in its quest to repeat, missing the postseason with a 78-84 record last year. However, many of the key pieces from that title team are still in the fold, including infielders Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Josh Jung, outfielder Adolis García and starter Nathan Eovaldi. Additionally, two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is now fully healthy following Tommy John surgery, and the club added Joc Pederson and Jake Burger to its lineup this offseason.

Both FanGraphs and PECOTA give Texas the shortest playoff odds in the AL West, but there¡¯s a large disparity between the two sites in terms of the actual figure. While PECOTA projects the Rangers to be more than two games better than the Astros and Mariners, FanGraphs groups the three clubs more closely together.