PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. -- Mediocrity can be a front office¡¯s worst enemy.
As the summer months arrive, teams in no man¡¯s land often have difficult decisions to make. Do you get aggressive at the Trade Deadline and try to bolster your roster with the hopes of a late-season run to the postseason? Or do you become a seller in an effort to better your chances in the ensuing years?
The Rays found themselves in such a spot last July, when they entered the month with a 42-42 record. They faced an 11-game deficit behind the Orioles (53-31) and the Yankees (54-32) in the American League East, and while they were only four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, two teams were between them and the Royals in the AL's sixth spot.
¡°We had an obnoxiously strong pull to .500 last year and we couldn't escape it,¡± president of baseball operations Erik Neander said. ¡°Things just never really synced up; every time the ball bounced our way, it bounced the wrong way the next day.¡±
With a limited number of teams prepared to sell, Neander recognized an opportunity. There would be no full-blown fire sale, but the Rays had some desirable players entering their final year of control, so trading some of them would accomplish some specific goals.
First, it would open spots for younger players to gain meaningful experience, allowing the Rays to see them compete at the highest level. Second, it would take care of some contractual issues that were destined to clutter up Tampa Bay¡¯s offseason. Third, and perhaps most important for a club that relies on its pipeline of talent, it would add a wealth of young, controllable players to the farm system.
If the postseason was a long shot for the Rays, what did they have to lose?
¡°There was probably a moment of reckoning coming this offseason if some of the decisions weren't made in July,¡± Neander said. ¡°When you're not firing at all cylinders, it's really disappointing. It's not fun, but you have to partition that and figure out, ¡®OK, if this is some sort of valley rather than a peak, how do we make it the shallowest valley possible?¡¯¡±
Neander has seen the other side of that equation. The Rays' 77-85 finish in 2014 was the worst for the club since the 2007 Devil Rays went 66-96, but it also began a run of five straight years without a postseason appearance.
Neander was committed to making sure last season didn¡¯t have the same lingering effect. The Rays had made the playoffs in every season between 2019-23, reaching the World Series in '20, so how could they make '24 merely a blip on the radar?
It was time to go to work.
¡°Going through that is not a whole lot of fun,¡± Neander said. ¡°Sometimes it's necessary to prioritize the future at the expense of the present if your cards aren't there to really keep it going.¡±
Between July 3 and the Trade Deadline, the Rays dealt starters Aaron Civale (Brewers) and Zach Eflin (Orioles), relievers Phil Maton (Mets), Tyler Zuber (Mets), Shawn Armstrong (Cardinals) and Jason Adam (Padres), outfielder Randy Arozarena (Mariners) and infielders Amed Rosario (Dodgers) and Isaac Paredes (Cubs) for a haul that included Christopher Morel, Dylan Carlson and 14 prospects.
The deals not only brought back a load of young talent, but they also cleared a path for players such as Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs (who wound up being dealt for a trio of prospects this winter), Junior Caminero, Edwin Uceta, Manuel Rodriguez, Drew Rasmussen, Richie Palacios and Jonny DeLuca to play.
¡°Opportunity is a bit of a tone-deaf word when you have a disappointing season,¡± Neander said. ¡°But if you have the opportunity to really condense the valley over a few months, make sure you get the absolute most of it by the difficult trades you make.¡±
The trades of fan favorites Arozarena and Paredes were unpopular, but they were necessary in the eyes of the organization. While some labeled it as a fire sale, the Rays saw it as a reset that would position them well for the near future.
Arozarena¡¯s salary was climbing toward eight figures with two years of arbitration remaining, while Paredes would be earning more than $6 million in 2025 with two more years of arbitration eligibility.
As their salaries rose, the Rays would have had to make other challenging decisions -- non-tenders, trades, etc. -- in the offseason had they held on to the pair. Moving them allowed Tampa Bay to bring in younger, more controllable talent while cleaning up payroll issues that would have presented themselves in the months ahead.
¡°For us, there are no guarantees of players developing into the kind of impactful contributors Randy and Isaac were,¡± Neander said. ¡°You never take that for granted. In the particulars of our situation, you have to make some difficult decisions to try to position yourselves to grow the next group.¡±
Neander made a handful of other minor trades prior to the Deadline, bringing the July total to 10. Eight players from Tampa Bay¡¯s Opening Day roster were now with other organizations, yet the Rays continued their season-long dance with .500 for the remainder of the season, ultimately losing their final game to finish 80-82.
¡°Our crystal ball is fair at best,¡± Neander said. ¡°But we think we took steps that made last year even more challenging at the time, but better prepared us for success in ¡¯25 and beyond.¡±
When MLB Pipeline released its Top 30 Prospects lists for 2025, the Rays¡¯ group included eight players acquired last July: outfielder Aidan Smith (No. 6), right-hander Brody Hopkins (No. 8), righty Jackson Baumeister (No. 14), outfielder Homer Bush Jr. (No. 17), shortstop Gregory Barrios (No. 18), righty Ty Johnson (No. 21), outfielder Matthew Etzel (No. 27) and righty Dylan Lesko (No. 28). Two other players outside the Top 30 -- Michael Flynn and Paul Gervase -- were interesting enough to receive nvites to big-league camp.
Neander felt good about the state of the farm system prior to the trades, but the moves strengthened the group in a matter of weeks.
¡°A few years from now, we think it¡¯s going to pay dividends and make sure that we continue to have the pitching we need,¡± Neander said. ¡°We had a good base, but there was an opportunity we felt to make it that much more strong while having pieces that we felt were ready to kind of be a part of our Major League team and help us remain competitive at the Major League level."
One of the most impactful aspects of the trades was the second-half performances of Rodriguez, Uceta, Mason Montgomery and Kevin Kelly, which has given the Rays the confidence that their bullpen would be strong in 2025 after a rocky start last year gave way to their usual bullpen dominance in the second half.
¡°We used those two months to really reinvent our bullpen,¡± Neander said. ¡°We don't need a couple months this year to figure it out; we can hit the ground running because of the experiences they had those two months last year."
Only time will tell whether last summer¡¯s trades will help the Rays avert a repeat of their 2014-18 postseason drought. But Neander and his staff had a plan and executed it with conviction, strengthening the system they hope will be the pipeline for the future.
¡°They're all silver linings; we weren't very good,¡± Neander said. ¡°Conditional on not having the year we wanted, I¡¯m very pleased with the way our staff stuck together and the work that was done to make the most out of it to strengthen our competitive outlook for ¡®25 and beyond.¡±