PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- In large part, the Mets¡¯ 2019 Draft orbited around Matt Allan.
After taking Brett Baty and Josh Wolf with their first two picks that June, Mets officials caught the industry¡¯s attention when they selected Allan, an 18-year-old high school pitcher, with the 89th overall selection. Widely considered a first-round talent with frontline, ace potential, Allan fell largely because of rumors that he was seeking a $4 million bonus. As the Mets¡¯ third-round pick approached, then-general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and his staff hurriedly sought assurances that they could sign Allan away from his commitment to the University of Florida.
Then the Mets did what the rest of the baseball world wouldn¡¯t, drafting Allan and paying him $2.5 million -- nearly quadruple his slot value.
Since that time, Allan¡¯s career has been a series of fits and starts. He wowed Mets officials during a brief debut in the lower Minors and, although he did not pitch at all in 2020 due to the pandemic, Allan continued to impress at the team¡¯s alternate site in Brooklyn. He spent part of the next offseason working out with Jacob deGrom and earned universal accolades as a Top 100 prospect in baseball.
The first hit came in May 2021, when Allan tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery. Less than a year later, Allan required a second operation to transpose a nerve in his arm. Then came the biggest blow: a UCL revision surgery in February 2023.
Allan is now approaching his 23rd birthday without having pitched in the Minors in four-plus years.
¡°He¡¯s been upbeat, positive, hardworking,¡± Mets senior vice president of player development Andy Green said. ¡°He¡¯s a great person. If you allow the big picture to come into play with as much time as he¡¯s missed, it can become overwhelming for a lot of people.¡±
Through Green, Allan declined an interview request because of how far away he is from pitching in games. He has not spoken publicly about his status since February 2022, shortly after his second operation. But he is again an active participant in Mets Minor League camp.
In recent weeks, Allan has been playing catch with the hopes of climbing back on a mound in May.
¡°He wants to be where his feet are,¡± Green said. ¡°He wants to be focused on just getting back and just doing what¡¯s in front of him and not looking too far out in the future.¡±
UCL revisions are similar to Tommy John operations in that they require doctors to take a tendon from elsewhere in the body and graft it into an elbow ligament. A revision becomes necessary if there is a problem with the original graft. According to Dr. Harshil Matta, a doctor of osteopathic medicine at NYU Langone, that can happen if a pitcher is young or hasn¡¯t pitched much before undergoing his initial Tommy John surgery, or if a traumatic event occurred during his rehab.
¡°Theoretically, we can assume that the original Tommy John didn¡¯t work optimally for him,¡± Dr. Matta said, speaking in generalities because he has not examined Allan personally. ¡°It sounds like there were already initial complications. If you¡¯re going in to do a nerve transposition of the ulnar nerve on that side, then something was up on that side already.¡±
The question now is whether Allan can still salvage his career. According to Dr. Matta, the same factors that put him at risk for a UCL revision -- primarily, his youth -- give him a better chance to return to top form in the future. But the average return from a revision is 18-20 months, as opposed to 15-18 months for an initial Tommy John.
That could mean another lost season for Allan, who no longer rates among the Mets¡¯ Top 30 prospects. Allan recently passed the three-year mark of his last competitive pitch, and the Mets won¡¯t even begin to have a gauge on his future prospects until he becomes a healthy pitcher again.
Perhaps at this time next year, the situation will be different. For now, Allan is doing what he can to give himself a chance.
¡°A lot of the evidence would say that coming back from a third procedure or a second Tommy John, your level is not going to be as high as it was before,¡± Dr. Matta said. ¡°But I would lean more on the positive side, just because he¡¯s younger. He hasn¡¯t yet tapped into his potential. Hopefully this at least lets him get out there and pitch, so the Mets can see what he can do.¡±