Debating the 2024 HOF ballot: Who gets in? Who takes another big leap??

The 2024 Hall of Fame ballot has been released, which can mean only one thing: It’s time to debate resumes.

Who should get in? Should there be any first-ballot Hall of Famers? Which players will make another big leap this year to position themselves well on future ballots? Who won’t get as much recognition as they maybe deserve?

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While you’re welcome to discuss any or all of those topics with your family and friends, three MLB.com writers -- Manny Randhawa, Paul Casella and Brian Murphy -- sat down to discuss a few of the key questions surrounding this year’s ballot.

Here’s what they had to say:

Which players do you think will be voted in on this ballot?

Manny Randhawa: I'll go with three guys -- Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner -- getting in this year.

Paul Casella: Same three for me: Beltré, Helton, Wagner.

Brian Murphy: It’s not very exciting when three people make the same prediction, but it’s hard to go against the crowd here. Beltré, Helton and Wagner will head to Cooperstown. Andruw Jones has a chance, but he probably comes up just short this year.

Which first-year candidate will do better: Joe Mauer or Chase Utley? Will either (or both) ever be voted in by the writers?

Randhawa: I think Mauer will do better on this first ballot, and I think he’ll eventually be voted in by the writers. He has the requisite credentials for both sabermetric-minded voters and “old-school” voters. His career WAR, WAR per 162 games and JAWS are all higher than that of the average Hall of Fame catcher. Mauer also won three batting titles, an MVP Award and three Gold Glove Awards.

Utley, I think, will be a close call with the writers -- he’s a borderline candidate as far as advanced metrics go, but he just might not have enough accolades, though his postseason exploits could give him a boost (10 homers, including five in the 2009 World Series).

• Breaking down every first timer on 2024 HOF ballot

Casella: Again, hard to argue with anything Manny just said -- I think he nailed it. Both Mauer and Utley were the best players at their respective positions during their prime … but did either player’s peak last long enough to deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame? That figures to be a question voters wrestle with quite a bit in the coming years, as I don’t think either player will be voted in this year, though I do think Mauer will receive more votes this time around as a result of his MVP Award and three batting titles.

That said, I actually see a path to the Hall of Fame for both players -- Mauer for ranking among the best catchers of all time and Utley for his postseason heroics and remarkable six-year peak from 2005-10. Still, I think both will be on the ballot for a few years before it happens.

Murphy: Mauer will be inducted at some point and will receive a higher percentage of the votes this year. I’ll predict Mauer is picked on more than 50% of submitted ballots, while Utley ends up in the 30-40% range. The standout individual achievements -- namely the aforementioned three batting titles and the AL MVP Award -- really work to Mauer’s advantage. His candidacy is supported by the fact that he was one of the league’s best hitters for almost a decade while playing the most demanding defensive position (although he was merely OK behind the plate; Utley was the better defender at his respective position).

I’m uncertain about whether Utley gets into the Hall. Neither player had a long peak, but Mauer’s lasted for eight years, while Utley’s lasted for just six. Only Albert Pujols had a higher WAR than Utley from 2005-10, but after that, Utley was more or less a league-average bat for the next nine seasons -- and his defense experienced a similar decline. I’ll say he makes it because I’m a “big Hall” guy, but I don’t feel confident about it.

Which returning candidate who does not get voted in this year will make a significant leap to position himself well for 2025?

Randhawa: Andruw Jones. He’s one of the very best defensive center fielders in baseball history and he belted 434 career home runs, plus he made an enormous jump last year, going from 41.4% in 2022 to 58.1% in '23. I think he gets into the low-70s this time around -- just shy of the necessary 75% threshold -- positioning him for election next year.

Casella: Since Manny once again covered it perfectly with Jones, I’ll go with Carlos Beltrán, who received a solid 46.5% of the vote in his first year on the ballot last year. Beltrán has a pretty impressive Hall of Fame resume: 435 home runs, 2,725 hits, nine All-Star selections, three Gold Glove Awards, two Silver Slugger Awards, the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year Award and a 2017 World Series ring. He also racked up 70.1 career WAR -- and he did it all as a switch-hitter, making him one of the best switch-hitters in MLB history. Look for Beltrán to make a sizable leap from Year 1 to Year 2 on his way to eventual induction.

Murphy: Bobby Abreu started gaining some traction last year, when his voting percentage jumped from 8.6% to 15.4% in his fourth year on the ballot. We’ve seen players in similar situations eventually cross the 75% threshold. Larry Walker was at 21.9% after his seventh year on the ballot, but he made a meteoric rise over the next three voting cycles on his way to being inducted in the Class of 2020. Wagner, who we all agree will be inducted this time around, was at just 16.7% after his fourth year on the ballot.

Abreu has time on his side. He’s got the numbers, too. He is one of seven players with at least 900 extra-base hits and 400 steals. Five of the other six are in the Hall of Fame, and the other is Barry Bonds. Abreu reached base more times than Tony Gwynn -- and he did it in fewer plate appearances. Abreu had a higher WAR than Vladimir Guerrero. Abreu should get more love from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America this year.

Which first-year candidate do you think will unjustly go one-and-done by failing to receive at least 5% of the vote?

Randhawa: I’m thinking Victor Martinez. He was a consistently reliable, and sometimes very productive, catcher/first baseman/designated hitter for Cleveland, Boston and Detroit over his 16-year MLB career. He had an .815 career OPS with 246 homers, plus he was a five-time All-Star. Given that Martinez played most of his career in smaller AL Central markets and that he doesn’t have the overall counting stats, I think he’ll fall off the ballot in Year 1.

Casella: James Shields. His overall resume -- a 4.01 career ERA, only one top-10 Cy Young Award finish and one All-Star selection -- won't get much Hall of Fame consideration, but Shields is arguably the last of a dying breed when it comes to starting pitching. Just take a look at his 2011 season: 11 complete games, four shutouts, 225 strikeouts over 249 1/3 innings and a 2.82 ERA. The only other pitchers with 11 complete games, four shutouts and 200 strikeouts in a season over the last 35 years are Pedro Martinez (1997) and Roger Clemens (1991 and '92).

Of course, one season doesn’t make a Hall of Famer – but Shields was also a workhorse outside of 2011. In fact, from 2007-16, he ranked first among all pitchers in innings pitched. He also ranked sixth in strikeouts behind only Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. Shields ranked sixth in shutouts behind Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, King Felix and Adam Wainwright. That’s a pretty impressive decade-long run.

Murphy: I fear we won’t be talking about José Reyes for more than one year on the Hall of Fame ballot. That would be a shame because he was a thrilling player to watch during his prime from 2005-11.

Reyes recorded double-digit triples and at least 55 stolen bases each season from 2005-08. He also won the 2011 NL batting title. Though injuries began piling up during his late 20s and early 30s, Reyes is still one of just four players in the Divisional Era (since 1969) with at least 100 homers, 100 triples and 500 steals. The other three members of that exclusive club are Kenny Lofton and Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Tim Raines.