What does '25 hold for 22-year-old Smith-Shawver?

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- AJ Smith-Shawver is preparing for what will be his third Major League season. Had he followed through with his commitment to play quarterback at Texas Tech -- and possibly pitch -- he would be nearing the end of what would have been his fourth year on campus.

Chase Burns, the first pitcher selected in last summer’s MLB Draft, was born on January, 16, 2003, two months after Smith-Shawver (Nov. 20, 2022). Burns still hasn’t thrown a pitch in a professional regular-season game. Smith-Shawver has made seven big league appearances (six starts) in the regular season and two more in the postseason.

And just to strengthen the point, Smith-Shawver didn’t even pitch in high school until his senior season.

This is just another reminder of how young Smith-Shawver is. He was rushed to the big leagues in 2023 and unfairly assigned to start Game 1 of last year’s Wild Card Series against the Padres. If you missed the story about how he went from being the guy who had to wait in the hallway to the Game 1 starter within a matter of days, here it is.

All of these experiences have strengthened Smith-Shawver, who appears to be a prime candidate for a breakthrough season. The 22-year-old right-hander impressed on Saturday night as he recorded eight strikeouts over four innings against the Twins. He looked as comfortable as he does on those great YouTube videos you can find of his days as a high school quarterback at Texas’ Colleyville Heritage High School.

“I just keep telling myself to go have fun out there,” Smith-Shawver said. “I think whenever I'm having fun and just going out there and competing, it's when I have my best product on the field.”

Smith-Shawver’s product includes a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, a much-improved curveball, a good changeup and a slider. His confidence in each of these offerings has been seen with the willingness he’s shown over the past few weeks to lean on his secondary pitches when behind in counts.

“I feel like I've done better whenever I get behind in counts of being able to throw my offspeed and just everything for strikes,” Smith-Shawver said. “I think that puts you in a way better spot, because if it's four options, rather than having just one or two pitches in the strike zone that day, having four options really messes with the hitters. So, whatever's working and whatever I can land that day, having more of those options is always a good thing.”

In other words: Smith-Shawver has gained a better understanding of the art of pitching.

The assumption has been that Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes will fill the final two spots in the rotation, partly because they are both out of options. But Smith-Shawver could also land a spot on the Opening Day roster as either a starter or long relief option.

The Braves will play seven straight days to open the season. You never know what might happen during that stretch. Last year, Max Fried was chased in the first inning of his first start and Spencer Strider suffered his season-ending elbow injury during the first few innings of his second start. Nobody saw that coming.

To protect against something similar or even just a rough start or two, the Braves could essentially begin the season with six starters. And if Smith-Shawver is a better option than Anderson to start against the Padres or Dodgers, then it would make sense to give him a start.

Strider should return to the Braves rotation by the end of April. At that point, the Braves will have a better feel for what they want to do with Anderson and Holmes. But regardless of what happens, my bold prediction is that Smith-Shawver will make 20-plus starts this season. There’s no reason he can’t do what Spencer Schwellenbach did after reaching the Majors in late May last year.