Bohm analyzes pitch-by-pitch approach

CLEARWATER, Fla. -- Alec Bohm knows there are stats for everything in baseball, but he does not know every one.

He does not know WPA.

“Close game stuff?” he said Monday morning at BayCare Ballpark.

Yeah, basically. Wins Probability Added measures the change in probability of a win caused by a batter. Only Mike Yastrzemski (2.935), Freddie Freeman (2.705) and Brandon Lowe (2.407) ranked ahead of Bohm (2.287) last season, which means he delivered in big moments throughout his rookie year. One of them came Sept. 8, when Bohm hit a walk-off single against Red Sox right-hander Matt Barnes at Citizens Bank Park.

“It seems so simple, at times, for him, and I think it is because of his approach,” Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins said.

Bohm’s approach helped him on Sept. 8. It also helped that he faced Barnes on Aug. 19 in Boston. The Phillies had a runner on first with one out in the eighth. They trailed, 5-3. Bohm hit a 3-2 curveball -- the eighth pitch of the at-bat -- to shortstop for an inning-ending double play. He learned from it.

“His curveball was his out pitch, and he wanted to use it,” Bohm recalled. “He probably wanted a double play, at least a ground ball. He knew that I was probably a guy that he could get into a double play. So I don't think the strikeout was really a big thing in his head.”

Flash forward to Sept. 8. The Phillies had runners on second and third with two outs in the seventh in the first game of a seven-inning doubleheader. The Red Sox led, 5-4. Barnes wanted a strikeout. Bohm expected curveballs.

Pitch No. 1: 97-mph fastball, up and in. Bohm backs up from the plate. 1-0.
Pitch No. 2: 85-mph curveball, down in the zone. Bohm fouls off the pitch. 1-1.

“I wasn't necessarily sitting on a certain pitch,” Bohm said. “I was looking for a breaking ball, but I like to stay on the fastball. Because if you're looking for a breaking ball and he throws a fastball in that situation, you're not -- especially with Barnes, he's got good velocity -- you're not going to be able to hit it. So I was on time for the fastball, but looking for a breaking ball most of that second at-bat. You can kind of tell.”

Pitch No. 3: 97-mph fastball, down the middle. Bohm takes it. 1-2.

Everybody from Hank Aaron to Ken Griffey Jr. to Bryce Harper has not swung at fastballs down the middle. There are reasons for it.

“Sometimes you just get frozen or you start late or you just don't feel right,” Bohm said. “The good ones won't swing because they know when they don't feel right, if they swing, they're probably not going to hit it well.

“I'm as guilty as anyone. I should have hit that pitch. But I just don't let it lead over to another pitch. So honestly, I just stuck to what I was doing. He threw a fastball by me. But I also didn't give him anything. I didn't swing. I wasn't late or early or whatever. I didn't swing at it. I didn't give him anything to go off of. Maybe he thinks I was sitting on a breaking ball. And you know, there’s that little bit of gamesmanship that goes on. He's like, ‘Oh, he's sitting on a breaking ball, so now I'm going to throw it again and try to trick him or something.’ I try not to let too many of those thoughts leak into my head and get me spinning.”

Pitch No. 4: 96-mph fastball, up and in. Bohm backs up again. 2-2.

“After he kind of brushed me back again, I knew, 'OK, he's trying to get me scared,'” Bohm said. “He's going to use that. Anytime you get dusted back like that, you're obviously ... I mean, it's hard. The ball, it hurts, right? Again, I just kind of threw it out. All right, I just went back and just kind of stayed on the breaking ball.”

Pitch No. 5: 85-mph curveball, outer half of the plate. Bohm hits it foul down the right-field line. 2-2.

“That was the one,” Bohm said. “That right there, I was like, 'OK, that was the one.' But then after that, I'm like, 'All right, well, can't do crap about it now, go back to work.' So clear my head and I went back to my plan.”

Bohm’s plan is important. Once he starts guessing he finds himself in trouble.

“You don't want to get trapped on the hamster wheel of guessing,” he said. “I just feel like whenever I get caught guessing, I guess wrong, and then I guess wrong again. And then I try to guess based on that wrong. It just keeps going -- wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. It just doesn't work.”

Pitch No. 6: 84-mph curveball, down the middle. Bohm laces a single to left. Two runs score. Phillies win.

“I was relieved that ... it's just nice to kind of -- when you have that plan, and then the pitcher throws what you think he's going to throw and you do execute and drive in a run or two -- it's always kind of that little rewarding feeling,” Bohm said. “But when it's in a big situation like that, to win a game, it's awesome.”

Harper said before a walk-off grand slam in 2019 that he put his hand on his chest in the on-deck circle to feel for a heartbeat. He could not believe he felt so calm in the moment.

Bohm is similar.

“There’s definitely something to be said for being able to just relax yourself,” Bohm said. “When you go up and down with every at-bat, it's going to be a long game and a long year. I'll have times where I get frustrated and a little emotional about it. But I try, as soon as that at-bat is over -- it’s over with. Next one. That kind of helps me.”

And stick with that approach.

“It’s really easy to get greedy in this game,” Bohm said. “You start feeling good, you get a couple hits, you start swinging a little bigger or you start trying to hit a little harder to try to lift the ball a little bit more. But I know those are all things that lead to strikeouts, popouts. When I'm locked in, and I'm sticking with my approach doing what I can do, my misses still play. But if I get big and all that, my misses are now swings and misses, foul balls, popups instead of a hard ground ball here, a little softer flared line drive -- the things I have a chance at getting on base with. Instead of just getting myself into a 2-0 count, which isn't easy to do, but then wasting it by just taking a huge swing that I don't normally take.”

Bohm’s mentality is why teammates expect more moments like the one from Sept. 8.

“When you’ve been around for a little bit, you see someone come up, a rookie, and they start getting their feet wet, they start playing in games and they start to really get a little more comfortable as the games go on,” Phillies left fielder Andrew McCutchen said. “You start going like, 'All right, he looks great, but I would change this, this and this.' Eventually, that's probably what he's going to change at some point in his career. Watching him play? There's literally nothing I would change.”