Peeling back the layers of Vladdy's arbitration case

This story was excerpted from Julia Kreuz’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- What’s an offseason without a little spice?

Just as temperatures dropped to frigid levels in Toronto -- and while the Blue Jays remained mostly quiet in the free-agent and trade markets -- a new development rekindled the fire around the club: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays did not reach an agreement ahead of last Thursday’s arbitration deadline.

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, Guerrero asked for a $19.9 million salary in 2024, with the Blue Jays countering at $18.05 million. Neither figure hits Guerrero’s projected $21 million for the season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Both parties are free to keep negotiating ahead of a potential arbitration hearing, which would likely come in February.

So, what now?

The weight of the name itself is enough to rile up a fan base and fill social media with hot takes, but there’s no real reason to panic yet, since this could still play out in a variety of ways.

Yes, Toronto’s history indicates that the club won’t keep negotiating after salary figures have been exchanged, but we’re just one offseason removed from Bo Bichette’s three-year, $33.6 million deal, which he signed roughly one month after he and the club failed to reach an agreement before the arbitration deadline.

After coming up with a lofty offer for new Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani, the Blue Jays should be in a prime financial position to sign Guerrero to a much-anticipated long-term extension. If the club could pull that off, it would certainly fall under the major-move category. If it can’t, and if an arbitration hearing actually materializes, that may signify an even trickier path toward locking in the three-time All-Star and 2022 Gold Glover.

More than that, it may point to missed opportunities elsewhere.

Vlad is in his second-to-last year of arbitration eligibility. So are other members of the Blue Jays’ homegrown core, such as Danny Jansen, Cavan Biggio, Jordan Romano and Tim Mayza. Bichette’s three-year deal also sets him up for free agency in 2026. A multiyear extension for Guerrero would certainly affect the Blue Jays’ approach to their complementary pieces in the years ahead, and that may become the real crux of Toronto’s negotiations with its star first baseman.

Jansen, Biggio, Romano and Mayza were part of the group of 11 Blue Jays players who agreed on one-year deals prior to the arbitration deadline. That’s good from one viewpoint -- a looming hearing with a superstar is enough of a handful -- but it may pose challenges two years from now, when all of those highly regarded players hit free agency at the same time. Beyond securing extensions for cornerstones such as Guerrero and Bichette, the Blue Jays must consider their long-term plans for the rest of their core.

It’s clear how much the front office values these players: Biggio, for one, agreed to an above-projection $4.21 million deal this season. Jansen, Romano and Mayza all settled for slightly more than what they were expected to earn.

The time will soon come for the Blue Jays to make a more holistic decision on these important pieces of their roster. If Vlad ends up signing his fabled long-term extension, Toronto’s one-day-at-a-time approach with the rest of the roster will be justified. If Vlad doesn’t sign, the decisions made this offseason may impact the club for years to come.

Welcome to baseball’s version of Schr?dinger’s cat.