Which team will be the best fit for Fried?

With the 2024 season behind us and the Hot Stove ready to burn, we're taking a closer look at some of the most prominent players eligible for free agency.

Name: Max Fried
Position: Left-handed pitcher
2024 Team: Atlanta Braves
Age (as of Opening Day 2025): 31
2024 stats: 11-10, 3.25 ERA, 174 1/3 IP, 1.164 WHIP, 166 K, 128 ERA+

This year’s free-agent market is rich in starting pitching, and while former American League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes is considered the top prize among the available arms, is it possible that Max Fried may be the most sought-after arm?

Many industry insiders expect Burnes to land a deal worth more than $200 million, a number Fried is not projected to approach. Given Fried’s excellent track record and extensive postseason experience, the left-hander should have no shortage of clubs looking to add him to their rotation for 2025 and beyond.

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You can make a case that Fried’s career has been more consistent than Burnes' to this point:

Fried: 73-36, 3.07 ERA, 168 appearances (151 starts), 884 1/3 IP, 863 K, 1.164 WHIP, 140 ERA+

Burnes: 60-36, 3.19 ERA, 199 appearances (138 starts), 903 2/3 IP, 1,051 K, 1.063 WHIP, 129 ERA+

How will Fried’s contract compare with the one Burnes receives? Will the Braves try to bring the lefty back, or will he wind up in a new uniform? Let’s take a look at how Fried's offseason might play out.

POTENTIAL SUITORS

BLUE JAYS
Toronto is eager to rebound from a tough 2024 season, and with one year left until both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette become free agents, the Blue Jays need to make some additions this winter to get back into the postseason picture. They’ll take a run at Juan Soto, but adding a top starting pitcher to go along with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos could be the best path to contention.

BRAVES
Atlanta hasn’t been afraid to hand out extensions to its stars in recent years, locking up Ronald Acu?a Jr., Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II with long-term deals. The Braves allowed Fried to reach free agency, and after he declined the qualifying offer, Atlanta will recoup Draft picks if he signs elsewhere. A return to the Braves isn’t out of the question, but it doesn’t seem likely.

DODGERS
Given the Dodgers’ injury issues within the rotation last season, adding a dependable starter would seem to be on their to-do list this winter. Fried has thrown at least 165 innings in four of the past five 162-game seasons, and as a Southern California native who grew up going to games at Dodger Stadium, he won’t have to be sold on the perks of living in Los Angeles.

GIANTS
Blake Snell’s decision to opt out of the final year of his contract has the Giants looking for another ace to pair with Logan Webb, and Fried and Burnes are among the top candidates. Oracle Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions have made it difficult for the Giants to recruit top hitters, but free-agent starters will have a far different view of the ballpark.

METS
Even as they try to win the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Mets have a lot of work to do with their rotation, with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all free agents. The Mets are very familiar with Fried, who is 9-5 with a 2.48 ERA in 23 career outings against New York, including a 4-3 record and 2.57 ERA in 14 outings at Citi Field.

ORIOLES
Baltimore faces the loss of ace Burnes, potentially leaving a huge hole atop the rotation. Fried doesn’t have a Cy Young Award like Burnes, but he’s been an All-Star in two of the past three seasons and would be a more-than-suitable replacement as the Orioles’ No. 1 starter.

RANGERS
Nathan Eovaldi’s decision to test free agency could leave the Rangers with a sizeable hole atop their rotation, with Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney also free agents. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker could move into the rotation, but adding a top starter should be a priority, especially if Eovaldi signs elsewhere.

RED SOX
The Red Sox appear to be all in on starting pitching this offseason, with hurlers including Fried, Burnes and Snell all drawing interest. Fried is a high school teammate of Boston righty Lucas Giolito, who could help recruit the longtime Braves starter to join him in Boston.

YANKEES
The Yankees’ current focus is re-signing Soto, but should they lose the superstar slugger, they seem likely to pivot to another top free agent. Gerrit Cole’s return erased the need for an ace, but adding Fried or another top starter to a group that already includes AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman would give the Yankees incredible pitching depth.

EXECUTIVE TAKE

“Coming off a strong season, Fried is sure to get a sizeable pay bump. One of the considerations of giving Fried the long-term contract at the average annual value he is looking for is that he has only thrown 170 innings twice in his career, though both came in the past three years. Other than a Tommy John surgery early in his career, Fried’s injury history hasn’t stopped him from being a mainstay in the Braves' rotation, so his consistency should land him a strong nine-figure contract.”

BUYER BEWARE

Fried’s 8% walk rate in 2024 was his highest since 2020, marking the second straight season that number has gone in the wrong direction. His 24.1% whiff rate was also down, coming in at his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2017. One other number to watch: Fried’s 34.6 hard-hit percentage was his highest since 2019, though he remained in the top 20% of the league in that category.

FOR COMP’S SAKE

Carlos Rodón was entering his age-30 season when he reached free agency, while Fried will be 31 in January, but Fried’s track record is far lengthier than Rodón’s was when he landed his six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees. Aaron Nola was heading into his age-31 campaign when he signed his seven-year, $172 million deal with the Phillies last year, though Fried might not a find a deal of that length. A five- or six-year deal with an average annual value between $25 million and $28 million should be within Fried’s reach.