No. 3 prospect Nimmala takes step back to leap forward

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- Prospect development in baseball is not linear.

This isn’t the NFL, where a first-round quarterback often starts as a rookie. This isn’t the NBA, where even picks toward the middle and back end of Round 1 contribute off the bench immediately, then expand their roles in their second and third seasons. Baseball’s a slow burn.

Take Arjun Nimmala, the Blue Jays’ No. 3 prospect and their first-round pick (20th overall) from the 2023 MLB Draft. The pick was excellent value at the time and still is for one of the top prep bats in his class, with legitimate power potential at shortstop. But we’re likely talking about five years of development here, not one.

Nimmala was challenged with an assignment to full-season ball this season in Single-A Dunedin at just 18 years old. He struggled through 29 games, batting .170 with 43 strikeouts, and was eventually moved to the Blue Jays’ development list in the middle of May, which is a way to keep Nimmala out of daily game action and work on some specific areas of focus at the club’s complex. It’s a tool they’re using more and more.

Nimmala was back in game action on Monday with the Rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate, a step down in levels where his age doesn’t look so out of place. This isn’t a failure, just the realities of developing a teenage prospect, especially when an organization is aggressive. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. played in Dunedin as an 18-year-old when it was a High-A affiliate, which was even more rare, but you only see the Blue Jays challenge prospects when they believe in not only the player’s talent, but their ability to handle some adversity.

Beyond the era of Vladdy and Bo Bichette, we’ve seen this more recently with Tucker Toman (No. 20), who played a full season in Dunedin at 19 last year and hit .208, but handled it well. We also saw this with Manuel Beltre (No. 27), another prospect mature beyond his years who got a taste of Dunedin at 18 before a full season at 19. Neither put up big numbers, but the Blue Jays are clearly comfortable challenging prospects in the right situations.

Nimmala’s upside hasn’t gone anywhere. It’s still just as exciting as it was nearly one year ago, particularly with his bat.

“The high finish that has a bit of an abruptness to it at the end has a unique nature to it,” general manager Ross Atkins said after Nimmala was drafted. “I think there are some players like that. I’m not comparing him to these guys, but Julio Rodríguez and Mookie Betts have a little bit of a higher finish with more of an abrupt finish. The most unique thing to me is how quick and powerful it is.”

By the time Nimmala reaches Double-A, the numbers matter. It can’t be about projection forever, but it still is right now. Nimmala’s move to the FCL looks like a step back, but given how he was challenged, this is just part of the journey for a prospect who could still easily force his way onto MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list in the coming seasons.

Triple-A Buffalo Bisons
Spencer Horwitz (No. 16) has been splitting time evenly between second and first this past month. That’s not just for fun. He’s batting .332 with a .455 on-base percentage, and while his overall power still isn’t threatening, he does enough against righties. With each passing day, it’s easier to see how Horwitz could help the Blue Jays if regular plate appearances were available. Orelvis Martinez (No. 2) and Addison Barger (No. 6) have more of a “wow” factor, but all Horwitz does is produce.

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Alan Roden (No. 7) has been heating up over the past few weeks, and while a little more power is still necessary to move him up a tier, his on-base ability (.371 OBP) will always be his calling card. Roden should earn a promotion to Triple-A soon, and if the Blue Jays were to promote a prospect like Barger again at any point, Roden’s jump could be tied to that.

High-A Vancouver Canadians
Canadian outfielder Dasan Brown (No. 26) is making a fine case for a promotion, too. His .371 on-base percentage is the key number, given his elite speed, but he’s driving the baseball more, too. Brown is also an excellent defender, so he doesn’t need eye-popping offensive numbers. It’s almost time to challenge him with Double-A pitching.