Ober the odd man out in Twins' rotation

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Bailey Ober hoped that he did everything he possibly could to make his case for the Opening Day roster, to force the Twins’ hand into finding room for him on a crowded pitching staff.

But in the end, there might not have been anything he could have done to change this outcome.

Minnesota optioned Ober to Triple-A St. Paul on Sunday morning, a day after he started the Twins' 9-4 loss to the Braves at Hammond Stadium. The move to send down one of their most consistent starting pitchers of the past two seasons formally resolved their most prominent roster battle of camp and seemingly finalized their five-man rotation for the regular season.

“There are situations in Spring Training where performance in Spring Training and what guys look like really do matter in the decisions that are being made,” manager Rocco Baldelli said on Saturday, before the decision had been announced. “And there are other times where they matter less.”

Minnesota is now poised to open the season with a starting five of Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, in that order. Saturday’s move was particularly tough to Ober because, frankly, he didn’t do anything to lose his position in those ranks -- especially not this spring.

Ober’s stuff has been up in camp, with his average fastball velocity up 1 mph, on average, from last regular season. He has already matched his hardest fastball from last year. He feels his slider and changeup are more crisp, more consistent than they were in 2022.

And that’s not to mention the 3.82 career ERA in two Major League seasons, including a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts last season around two extended absences from the big league roster while he was saddled with a recurring groin injury.

“It's definitely been a little tough, especially the last two weeks, I'd probably say, since it's more at the forefront,” Ober said on Saturday, before he was optioned. “My wife's been doing a great job trying to take my mind off stuff and asking questions and giving me time to just talk it out and vent a little bit. It's definitely hard.”

It doesn’t always carry a tough outlook to be the sixth starter in a rotation pecking order, because injuries are a fact of life in any spring. That figured to be even more the case in this group, with Maeda coming off Tommy John surgery and Mahle aiming to put the mysterious shoulder issues of late 2022 behind him.

But the five more established starters ahead of Ober all navigated a healthy camp. Mahle and Maeda have had some spring struggles, but Mahle has maintained his normal velocity throughout the spring, while Baldelli has attributed Maeda’s inconsistencies to “the definition of shaking off the rust.”

And considering the veteran status and big league track records of everyone else in the rotation mix, the Twins had little choice but to consider Ober the odd man out from the five-man starting group.

Though president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said mid-camp that the health and performance around the rotation had made the Twins “more open” to what a six-man rotation could look like, one ultimately didn’t line up considering the team’s bullpen needs (typically involving a long reliever) and the pair of early off-days on the schedule.

“[Ober has] had a really good Spring Training,” Baldelli said. “He was good early, he was good in the middle and he was good late. He’s been really good.”

Ober’s time will come, and scheduling considerations could dictate a need for his help in April, even without injuries. No team makes it through a regular season needing only five starting pitchers; the 2022 Twins had nine pitchers make at least five starts. They’ll need Ober, and they’ll also need Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson behind him, and perhaps even more beyond that.

From the organization’s perspective, this is a good problem to have, and an indication of the vast starting depth the Twins have often lacked. But it also makes for some tough roster conversations -- and no player is set to feel that harder than Ober.