Who will be each team's top home run hitter in '25?

The 2024 season featured some epic home run performances, from Aaron Judge’s MLB-leading 58 to Shohei Ohtani’s 54 (as part of his unprecedented 50-50 campaign) to Anthony Santander’s 44 (the fifth-highest total in history by a switch-hitter).

What will 2025 have in store when it comes to the long ball? For some clues, let’s look at each team’s projected season leader, as of Monday, according to FanGraphs Depth Charts (a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, with expected playing time allocated by FanGraphs staff). Along with each projected leader, we’ll include that team’s actual 2024 leader, as well as one other slugger to keep an eye on as he takes his cuts in ‘25.

Finally, keep in mind that projections are, by their nature, conservative. That’s why you won’t see any projections of 50-plus homers on this list. A year ago, Judge was projected for 46 homers, and Ohtani 39. Some players are bound to outperform theirs in 2025 -- but who will it be?

Yankees: Aaron Judge (49)
2024 leader: Judge (58)

If Judge cracks the 50 mark again, he would tie Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa for the most such seasons in Major League history (four).

Keep an eye on … Jasson Domínguez (21): It feels like we’ve been waiting a long time for The Martian to truly arrive, but he just turned 22 and is set for his first extended big league opportunity.

Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (42)
2024 leader: Ohtani (54)

It feels unfair to expect 50-plus long balls again from Ohtani, given that he will no longer be a full-time DH. But even in his past three seasons as a two-way player, he averaged 41.

Keep an eye on … Michael Conforto (20): He struggled mightily at Oracle Park last season, but his .530 SLG on the road ranked 12th among MLB qualifiers.

Athletics: Brent Rooker (38)
2024 leader: Rooker (39)

Rooker went deep 24 times on the road last year, compared with 15 at home, as the Oakland Coliseum ranked as the 29th-best home run park for right-handed batters. We’ll see if the move to West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park gives Rooker a boost.

Keep an eye on … Lawrence Butler (26): After a big-time breakout at age 23, can Butler take the next step?

Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (38)
2024 leader: Schwarber (38)

Schwarber has led the Phillies in this category in each of his three seasons with the club, and his 131 dingers over that span rank behind only Judge and Ohtani across the Majors.

Keep an eye on … Alec Bohm (17): Statcast metrics show Bohm can square up the ball with the best of them, but it’s yet to translate to more than 20 homers in a season. At age 28, now is the time.

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (37)
2024 leader: Manny Machado (29)

Tatis hasn’t topped 25 homers in a season since losing all of 2022 to suspension and injury, but it feels like it’s only a matter of time before his monstrous power reappears. The 2024 postseason (1.000 SLG, four homers in seven games) may have been a sneak preview.

Keep an eye on … Jackson Merrill (25): As a 21-year-old rookie, he ranked in the 78th percentile in barrel rate, the 94th percentile in sweet-spot rate and the 96th percentile in expected slugging.

Blue Jays: Anthony Santander (36)
2024 leader: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (30)

Will Toronto’s 2025 leader be the big offseason addition to its lineup (Santander), or the franchise cornerstone in his final year before reaching free agency (Guerrero)? The former is coming off a career-high 44 homers (11 more than his previous best), while the latter tied for the MLB lead with 48 in 2021 but has not approached that figure since.

Keep an eye on … Orelvis Martinez (9): The 23-year-old has a lot to prove coming off a season that included a PED suspension, but his “prodigious power” is intriguing if he gets an opportunity to crack the Blue Jays’ lineup.

Mets: Pete Alonso (35)
2024 leader: Alonso (34)

The Polar Bear is back in Queens and ready to lead the Mets in home runs for the seventh consecutive season … or is he? The new star in town, Juan Soto (34), might have something to say about that. But either way, Alonso would take over as the franchise’s all-time leader with at least 27 big flies.

Keep an eye on … Francisco Alvarez (22): While Mark Vientos broke out in 2024, Alvarez saw his power production crater. He’s still just 23, however, with plenty of thump in his bat.

Astros: Yordan Alvarez (34)
2024 leader: Alvarez (35)

Alvarez has been as consistent as anyone, hitting between 31 and 37 homers in each of his first four full MLB seasons. It would be no surprise to see him finally reach the 40 plateau, though.

Keep an eye on … Isaac Paredes (25): His pull-heavy approach should be a perfect fit for Houston’s newly renamed Daikin Park and its left field Crawford Boxes.

Braves: Matt Olson (34)
2024 leader: Marcell Ozuna (39)

Olson lost 25 home runs from 2023 (54) to ‘24 (29) despite playing in 162 games for the third straight season. He is one of several Braves hitters hoping to rebound from injuries and/or underperformance in ‘25.

Keep an eye on … Ronald Acuña Jr. (25): Speaking of which, it remains to be seen exactly when the 2023 NL MVP will rejoin the Braves’ lineup -- and how quickly he returns to form when he does so.

Red Sox: Rafael Devers (33)
2024 leader: Tyler O’Neill (31)

O’Neill is now in Baltimore, which leaves Devers as the favorite. Devers looked to be headed for his fourth 30-homer campaign in 2024 but went deep just five times in 54 games after the All-Star break to finish with 28.

Keep an eye on … Trevor Story (17): Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup is in dire need of some right-handed power. Can that come from Story, whose Sox tenure has been decimated by injury?

Orioles: Gunnar Henderson (31)
2024 leader: Anthony Santander (44)

Henderson took a massive step forward in 2024, mashing 37 home runs as a 23-year-old shortstop. With Santander now in Toronto, it becomes even more important that Henderson back up that performance in 2025.

Keep an eye on … Tyler O'Neill (24): Nobody is more ripped than O’Neill, and his power remains ever-tantalizing if he can stay healthy.

Rangers: Jake Burger (31)
2024 leader: Corey Seager (30)

Burger somewhat quietly launched 63 home runs for the White Sox and Marlins over the past two seasons. Traded from Miami to Texas in December, he now has a chance to help a Rangers lineup that hit 57 fewer homers in 2024 than during its ‘23 championship season.

Keep an eye on … Wyatt Langford (23): A top prospect heading into 2024, he hit eight homers and slugged .610 in the final month of his rookie season.

Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (30)
2024 leader: Witt (32)

No hitter had a bigger gap than Witt last season between his expected home run total (38.3, per Statcast) and his actual total. Of course, there are three Royals in the top five of that list, which reflects the fact that even though Kauffman Stadium is a good place to hit in general -- Witt slashed .382/.441/.676 there in 2024 -- it’s not an ideal home run park.

Keep an eye on … Salvador Perez (26): Now entering his age-35 season -- and in the final guaranteed year of his contract -- Perez is 44 homers behind George Brett’s franchise record of 317.

Guardians: José Ramírez (30)
2024 leader: Ramírez (30)

The last time Ramírez didn’t lead the Guardians in homers was 2019, when he finished fourth behind Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor and Roberto Perez. Santana is now back in Cleveland, but neither he nor anyone else in the Guardians lineup is projected to approach J-Ram.

Keep an eye on … Jhonkensy Noel (15): “Big Christmas” will have to earn an everyday role, and there are big question marks in his game. But the 23-year-old’s power is absolutely for real.

Cubs: Kyle Tucker (30)
2024 leader: Ian Happ (25)

No Cubs player has reached the 30-homer mark since 2019 (Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber). Chicago traded for Tucker precisely because he can be the type of elite hitter this lineup has been missing in recent years.

Keep an eye on … Seiya Suzuki (21): Perhaps moving into the regular DH role will help bring out the best in Suzuki’s bat in 2025.

Mariners: Cal Raleigh (30)
2024 leader: Raleigh (34)

With another one in 2025, Raleigh would join Hall of Famers Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza as the only catchers with at least three 30-homer campaigns through age 28.

Keep an eye on … Julio Rodríguez (29): One obstacle standing in the way of J-Rod’s ascendance: He went deep just eight times all season at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park last year.

Angels: Mike Trout (28)
2024 leader: Taylor Ward (25)

Trout is projected for as many homers as he managed in the previous two seasons combined (28). Of course, it’s all about health for Trout. The Angels hope a move to right field will help.

Keep an eye on … Jo Adell (23): Once a top-10 prospect, Adell may be running out of chances, but the elite bat speed and power are still there if he can harness them.

Rays: Junior Caminero (27)
2024 leader: Brandon Lowe (21)

Caminero is 21, with seven Major League homers to his name. Regardless, he’s slated to start at third base and hit in the middle of the Rays’ lineup, and the projections foresee an immediate impact.

Keep an eye on … Christopher Morel (22): Few batters whiff more, but few barrel it more often when they do connect.

White Sox: Luis Robert Jr. (27)
2024 leader: Andrew Benintendi (20)

What the projections don’t account for is the possibility that if Robert is hitting well enough to lead the 2025 White Sox in home runs, he just might find himself taking cuts for a different team by the Trade Deadline.

Keep an eye on … Joey Gallo (7): Now 31 and in camp as a non-roster invitee, can Gallo turn his career around? He’s hit .166 with a .665 OPS since 2022.

Giants: Matt Chapman (26)
2024 leader: Chapman (27)

Chapman’s first season in San Francisco was such a success that the team inked him to a six-year extension in September. He’s hit exactly 27 homers in three of the past four seasons.

Keep an eye on … Heliot Ramos (22): He destroyed left-handed pitching in his first full season (.750 SLG) but will need to hit righties better (.387) to take the next step.

Pirates: Oneil Cruz (26)
2024 leader: Bryan Reynolds (24)

In a league that includes the likes of Judge, Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, it was Cruz who recorded each of the four highest exit velocities of 2024, all over 120 mph. His ceiling remains sky high.

Keep an eye on … Joey Bart (12): Things never worked out in San Francisco for the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 Draft, but he found new life in Pittsburgh last season.

Twins: Royce Lewis (26)
2024 leader: Carlos Santana (23)

Three of the Twins’ top four projected home run hitters -- Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa -- all face the same question: Can they stay healthy enough to put up numbers that match their talent?

Keep an eye on … Matt Wallner (22): His contact quality is at the top of the scale, and he raked after returning from the Minors last July (.282/.386/.559 in 62 games).

Rockies: Michael Toglia (26)
2024 leader: Ezequiel Tovar (26)

Despite calling Coors Field home, the Rockies have not gotten a 30-homer season from any hitter since 2019. Toglia came pretty close last year (25 HR) despite playing only 116 games.

Keep an eye on … Nolan Jones (16): He was one of the out-of-nowhere stars of 2023, but struggled mightily through an injury-plagued ‘24.

D-backs: Ketel Marte (26)
2024 leader: Marte (36)

Marte pummeled exactly as many homers from the right side of the plate (18) as the left side in 2024, despite logging 118 fewer at-bats there. His career SLG is more than 100 points higher against southpaws (.539).

Keep an eye on … Pavin Smith (10): One of 15 players to notch a three-homer game in 2024, Smith could grab a more regular role in 2025 with Joc Pederson departing for Texas.

Brewers: Rhys Hoskins (26)
2024 leader: Willy Adames (32)

With Adames now in San Francisco, the Brewers will hope Hoskins can help pick up the slack. He did homer 26 times last season after missing all of 2023 due to injury, but his overall productivity was down considerably from his Philadelphia days.

Keep an eye on … Jackson Chourio (25): It’s hardly going out on a limb to predict a huge season from Chourio after he went 20-20 as a 20-year-old rookie.

Reds: Elly De La Cruz (25)
2024 leader: De La Cruz (25)

As productive as he was, there is little doubt that De La Cruz was only scratching the surface of his immense talent as a 22-year-old last year. A significant power spike in 2025 would be no surprise.

Keep an eye on … Christian Encarnacion-Strand (16): A big-time power hitter in the Minors, he showed promise in Cincinnati in 2023, before a hand fracture wiped out most of his ‘24 season.

Cardinals: Nolan Gorman (25)
2024 leader: Paul Goldschmidt (22)

Power has been Gorman’s calling card since before the Cardinals drafted him 19th overall in 2018. It blossomed in 2023, when Gorman knocked 27 homers in 119 games at age 23, but like fellow bat-first prospect Jordan Walker, 2024 brought a big step back, including a trip back to the Minors. St. Louis is hoping its young bats make clear progress in ‘25.

Keep an eye on … Willson Contreras (24): He has left the rigors of catching behind and bulked up in the weight room, with the goal of unleashing his bat as a full-time first baseman.

Tigers: Riley Greene & Kerry Carpenter (22)
2024 leader: Greene (24)

The main thing holding back both of these left-handed hitters when it comes to compiling big home run totals is facing left-handed pitching. Detroit has heavily platooned Carpenter, and while Greene has fared better against southpaws, his splits are still significant.

Keep an eye on … Colt Keith (16): He slugged .552 in the Minors in 2023 and showed flashes of that power as a 22-year-old rookie.

Marlins: Jesús Sánchez (21)
2024 leader: Jake Burger (29)

Sánchez launched the longest home run of the 2024 MLB season: 480 feet on Aug. 5 in Miami. Contact issues have hindered him, but there is no doubting the thunder in his bat.

Keep an eye on … Kyle Stowers (18): This could be either Stowers or Connor Norby. Both came from the Orioles in last summer’s Trevor Rogers trade and should have no shortage of opportunities to thrive with the Fish.

Nationals: James Wood (21)
2024 leader: CJ Abrams (20)

In his 79-game 2024 debut, the 21-year-old Wood more than held his own against big league pitching despite a 55% ground ball rate. If he can lift the ball more in 2025, the results could be scary.

Keep an eye on … Dylan Crews (16): Wood isn’t Washington’s only exciting young outfielder, with Crews an NL Rookie of the Year contender two years after being drafted second overall.