Why Snell’s FA case is better than last year

After opting out of his contract with the Giants, Blake Snell is a free agent for the second straight offseason, and he may actually have more value the second time around.

At first glance, that might seem dubious. When Snell reached free agency a year ago, he was coming off a season that would earn him his second career Cy Young Award. In 2024, he threw 76 fewer innings and saw his ERA increase by nearly a run.

Snell is also another year older, and concerns about his durability and penchant for wildness haven’t gone away.

But when you look at the overall picture, the 31-year-old's free-agent stock appears to be higher this time. Here’s why.

His incredible finish was another reminder of how high his ceiling is

While Snell led the American League with a 1.89 ERA in his first Cy Young season in 2018 and posted an MLB-best 2.25 ERA in 2023, his naysayers could point to his 3.85 ERA (104 ERA+) across 2019-22 as a reason to be skeptical about his ace stature.

Snell, though, reaffirmed his place among MLB's best pitchers in 2024, despite his rocky start to the season.

Snell didn't have time to properly build up for the campaign after signing with the Giants close to Opening Day, and he went on to record a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts, making two trips to the injured list with lower-body ailments as well.

However, the southpaw was virtually untouchable after returning from his second IL stint in July, recording a microscopic 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts, including a no-hitter against the Reds on Aug. 2. It was reminiscent of the way he finished the 2023 season, posting a 1.20 ERA in his final 23 starts.

Even if you factor in his early struggles in 2024, Snell has notched a 2.06 ERA with 331 strikeouts over 239 innings (12.46 K/9) in his past 43 starts dating back to May 2023.

That’s a large enough sample size for teams to overlook some of the inconsistency that has plagued Snell during his career.

His underlying metrics were better in 2024 than 2023

Although his ERA jumped from 2.25 to 3.12 from 2023 to 2024, Snell actually made some significant strides this past season.

Perhaps most importantly, Snell reined in the walks after leading MLB with 99 free passes in 2023. The left-hander managed to shave 2.8 percentage points off his walk rate from 2023 (13.3%), lowering it to 10.5% in 2024.

We can point to three reasons why this happened:

• He got more swings on pitches out of the zone in 2024, increasing his chase rate by 3.7 percentage points -- from 27.9% to 31.6%.
• He got into three-ball counts far less often in 2024. Only 26.6% of his plate appearances went to three balls, down from 32.3% the previous year.
• His in-zone rate in three-ball counts skyrocketed, going from 53.6% to 59.0%.

On top of his improvement in the walk department, the lefty increased his strikeout rate by 3.2 points (31.5% to 34.7%) and lowered his hard-hit rate by 4.9 points (33.8% to 28.9%) in 2024.

Snell was one of only two starting pitchers who ranked in the 90th percentile or better in both strikeout rate and hard-hit rate this past season, along with Braves lefty Chris Sale, the expected NL Cy Young Award winner. Snell placed in the 98th percentile in K-rate and the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Add it all up and Snell finished the year with a 2.54 expected ERA, a Statcast metric based on quality of contact, strikeouts and walks. He had a 3.77 xERA during his second Cy Young season.

Among pitchers who faced at least 350 batters in 2024, only one had a lower xERA than Snell.

Lowest xERA, 2024
Minimum 350 batters faced

1. Paul Skenes: 2.50
2. Blake Snell: 2.54
3. Tyler Glasnow: 2.62
4. Tarik Skubal: 2.68
5. Justin Steele and Bryan Woo: 2.72

His four-seam was as effective as ever in 2024

Snell’s nasty breaking stuff has propelled his success throughout his career, and 2024 was no exception. The lefty’s .188 wOBA allowed on breaking pitches ranked second in MLB (minimum 150 PAs ending on breaking pitches).

But Snell’s four-seam fastball was also markedly better in 2024, coinciding with an increase in his tendency to elevate the pitch.

High-spin four-seamers like Snell’s can be especially effective when elevated, taking advantage of the pitch’s “rising” action to get batters to swing underneath it. Snell really embraced this concept in 2024, elevating his four-seamer 63.5% of the time (51.8% across 2016-23).

With that, Snell ended up holding opposing batters to a career-low .276 wOBA on four-seamers -- down from .345 across 2016-23 -- while registering his highest four-seam fastball whiff rate (24.1%) since 2019.

Snell’s four-seam fastball improvement was particularly notable against right-handed batters, who had a .356 wOBA against Snell’s four-seamer from 2016-23 but just a .256 mark against it in 2024.

Snell's four-seam fastball heatmaps for 2023 and 2024 show what he did differently in those matchups this past season, not only elevating the ball more but also targeting the inside part of the plate more, rather than trying to keep the pitch down and away.

He’s not attached to Draft compensation

It’s likely some of the game’s highest-spending clubs didn’t even consider signing Snell last offseason thanks to the Draft compensation attached to him after he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.

The penalties are especially steep for teams that exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. To sign a QO free agent, these teams must forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the next MLB Draft in addition to $1 million from their international bonus pool.

Snell wasn't eligible to receive another QO, so there are no such penalties tied to him this time, unlike Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, two of the other top starters available in free agency. That could expand Snell's list of suitors.

MLB.com's Mark Feinsand broke down the potential market for Snell right here.