How the Blue Jays could set themselves up for 2025 at Trade Deadline
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This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson¡¯s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO -- It¡¯s all about 2025 now. ¡ But what¡¯s going to be different next season?
That¡¯s the uncomfortable question in all of this. If the Blue Jays do what they¡¯re widely expected to do and trade away only players who are on an expiring deal -- think Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi García -- the focus will immediately shift to taking one last run with a core led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2025.
How¡¯s that going to work, though? This season has been a lesson in what it looks like when you bet on internal improvements and lose. Competing in 2025 without making major changes will require not only better luck, better health and better performance, but some savvy business in between.
The Blue Jays need to thread the needle here, but have you ever tried threading a needle? It¡¯s hard, especially when you haven¡¯t threaded a needle in years.
It all starts this week, leading into Tuesday's 6 p.m. ET Trade Deadline.
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1. Can they find legitimate upside at the Trade Deadline?
Kikuchi and Garc¨ªa could each net the Blue Jays a noteworthy prospect, perhaps two. We¡¯re not talking about someone¡¯s No. 1 prospect, but a ranked prospect. Ideally, one who is close to making an impact at the Major League level. If this is all about making one more run in 2025, a 17-year-old kid isn¡¯t going to help.
Danny Jansen could land the Blue Jays a decent prospect, too, but when we reach Trevor Richards, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier, it¡¯s difficult to forecast much of a prospect return, especially with the amount of money still owed to Turner and Kiermaier over the final two months. Unless Toronto expands its openness to dealing players with control beyond 2024, there simply isn¡¯t much upside to play with here. The club will need to nail the Kikuchi and Garc¨ªa deals, period.
Here¡¯s one idea that isn¡¯t getting enough play: the Blue Jays buying while they sell.
Think of the Whit Merrifield deal in 2022. That was the Blue Jays helping themselves down the stretch, while also getting out ahead of an offseason need. Expect them to look for something similar in this market, if the right opportunity arises for a depth starter, reliever or an outfielder who could help in ¡®25.
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2. Where will the internal improvements come from?
You¡¯re forgiven if ¡°internal improvements¡± isn¡¯t your favorite term after this season, but those need to be part of this plan if the Blue Jays hope to be a better team in 2025.
There are obvious candidates at the big-league level. Bo Bichette alone could swing a few losses into wins if he returns to his full, healthy self. George Springer has shown he still has something in the tank, and Daulton Varsho can help this team more offensively on top of his brilliant defense. Of course, with Kiermaier a pending free agent, it feels like adding an outfielder is the Blue Jays¡¯ best shot at waking this offense up.
Something needs to come from the farm, though, and this organization simply hasn¡¯t had enough good news from its prospects. Toronto¡¯s young pitchers, in particular, have dealt with a terrible string of injuries. No. 1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann is now seeking second and third opinions on his left elbow, which doesn¡¯t exactly inspire optimism. No. 2 prospect Orelvis Martinez, who has tremendous power upside, is serving an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.
The Blue Jays don¡¯t just need another Davis Schneider or Spencer Horwitz, they need a breakout star.
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3. How do they approach the offseason?
Would the Blue Jays load up on short-term deals? Can they clear enough money to leave room for a legitimate high-impact bat? Can that even be found without stretching for a long-term contract? It all feels a bit clunky.
The Blue Jays will need to add several relievers and improve their rotation depth, which hasn¡¯t been strong enough for years now. The offense remains the glaring issue, though, and fixing that in one offseason -- all with Guerrero and Bichette entering their final year of club control -- isn¡¯t a simple task. Unless either is given a contract extension, which would be very surprising at this point, it¡¯s difficult to envision what this club looks like in 2026 and beyond.
There¡¯s time, but there are questions. Turning to 2025 only makes sense if the Blue Jays genuinely believe they can make a run, and if that¡¯s going to happen, the next few months will need to be awfully busy.