Five homers in 10-3 win over the Reds? Must be Aug. 20

TORONTO -- Five home runs for the Blue Jays? That sounds like a good week.

In their 10-3 blowout win over the Reds on Tuesday night, they did it in just five innings, turning rookie Carson Spiers into their own batting practice pitcher for the evening.

This is the Blue Jays’ newest, strangest annual tradition. This club hadn’t hit four home runs (let alone five) in a game in 2024, and the last time it did this was exactly one year ago to the day on Aug. 20, 2023 … in what was also a 10-3 win against the Reds.

Don’t worry, Reds fans, they’ll be in Anaheim on this date next year.

George Springer bookended the Blue Jays' quintet of blasts, with Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz and Leo Jiménez launching their own in between. It was so refreshing to watch after Toronto has spent much of the season trying to string together five singles. A dozen different things need to improve between now and Opening Day 2025, but the Blue Jays will not go anywhere until this lineup’s power potential improves. It’s the anchor still dragging behind them, but a night like this can cut through the tension of a season gone wrong, setting off a party in the dugout.

“I enjoyed everything tonight,” Jiménez said, smiling after the win. “Just seeing the guys making jokes. It’s an everyday thing, but just being able to talk to them and have fun in the dugout, it’s just the best thing I can get from being around them.”

Nights like Tuesday point to the path forward. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has leapt back into a class of his own and looks like a hitter capable of chasing 40 home runs each season, but beyond that, the Blue Jays don’t have anyone who the rest of the baseball world would define as a true power threat. Part of this is by design, with recent signings representing more of a solid floor than tantalizing upside -- think Justin Turner and Brandon Belt at DH -- but there’s still a way to take the quantity approach.

“That would be great,” manager John Schneider said. “Spencer and Leo are tapping into some power. Leo, especially, he hits the ball hard. That’s three home runs in his last four games. I think that would be great. If you look up and have a couple of guys leading the way -- Vlad with his, George and Varsho, I think there’s more in there for Kirk, too -- it would be great.”

In 2021, the Blue Jays blew the barn doors off the league. They hit 262 home runs, comfortably the most in baseball, with a .796 team OPS. It’s one of the best seasons from a Toronto lineup. That lineup had Guerrero with 48 homers and Marcus Semien with 45, but those were just two of seven Blue Jays to hit 20 or more long balls. That number dropped to five hitters in 2022 and four a year ago. This season, Toronto is waiting on Springer (16) and Daulton Varsho (15) to give its lineup a second behind Vladdy.

2024 team rankings
Home runs: 123 (26th in MLB)
Slugging%: .388 (19th)
Average exit velocity: 88.1 mph (26th)
Hard-hit rate (95+ mph): 36.7 (25th)

While Springer and Varsho clearly have the potential to land in the 20- to 25-homer range annually, the Blue Jays need much of this growth to come from top prospects and new guys. Horwitz, like newcomer Will Wagner, is known far more for his on-base ability than his pop. Davis Schneider, who looked like an easy bet to hit at least 20 a year ago, has fallen cold over the summer. Danny Jansen, who had the power to hit 30 or more over a healthy season, now calls Fenway Park home.

Instead, this needs to come from Orelvis Martinez, the Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect still serving his 80-game suspension for a positive PED test. Then, down the line comes the young Arjun Nimmala (No. 5) and the much-closer Charles McAdoo (No. 8), both of whom offer exciting power upside in a system needing it. Joey Loperfido, already playing regularly with Toronto, will need to make good on his power promise, too.

It’s still clear that some of this will need to come from outside of the organization, too, with another massive offseason suddenly looming over this franchise. But regardless of how the puzzle comes together, this team needs power. The Blue Jays need more nights like Tuesday, ideally before Aug. 20, 2025.