Blue Jays take a risk at the Rule 5 deadline

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TORONTO -- Tuesday’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft came and passed silently in Toronto, leaving a lesson in how offseasons are built and paced.

While the Blue Jays had no clear and obvious candidates to be protected -- think about a prospect of Orelvis Martinez’s caliber when his year rolled around in 2022 -- it was still surprising at first glance to see zero moves made. Besides, the Blue Jays built up plenty of bullpen depth on the waiver wire, and a half-dozen of those players won’t stick on the 40-man roster through the offseason.

Why not give that roster spot to a prospect, then? Perhaps 25-year-old Lazaro Estrada, the Cuban right-hander and recently crowned darling in prospect circles, fresh off a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League?

There’s some risk involved here, and the Blue Jays will be holding their breath through the Rule 5 Draft on the final day of the Winter Meetings three weeks from now in Dallas, but this is about the bigger picture of the offseason. This isn’t about comparing Prospect A with the last man on the 40-man roster today, but instead about comparing them with who the Blue Jays expect the last man on their 40-man roster to be three months from now. There’s no sense in adding a young player if they’re going to begin the next year on the DFA bubble.

Of course, this line of thinking only works if the Blue Jays are actually planning to make some serious additions this offseason. We’re not just talking about quality here, but quantity. It’s easy to see how the Blue Jays could free up six to eight spots on their 40-man roster.

The simple version? The Blue Jays are betting that by Opening Day, the final spot on their 40-man roster will be more valuable to them than any of the prospects they could have protected. It’s a risk, but one that can’t fully be judged until we get there.

That said, it’s a long season. Here’s a look at some players not protected on Tuesday who could still make an impact in 2025 or soon after:

RHP Lazaro Estrada

Expect to see Estrada in the Blue Jays’ Top 30 when we re-rank the prospects next spring. He’s developing later than the typical pitching prospect but has the potential to be a legitimate starting depth option for the Blue Jays if he can reach Triple-A Buffalo by late 2025, and his AFL performance (3.86 ERA, 19 Ks in 11 2/3 innings with Scottsdale) will only help that. Would another MLB club select him in the Rule 5 Draft and try to keep him on its roster for all of ‘25? It’s possible, but it feels unlikely.

C Phil Clarke

Clarke has some real fans in this organization. The Blue Jays loved him coming out of Vanderbilt in the 2019 Draft and he’s done enough at the plate, including 43 walks to just 33 strikeouts last season between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A (.719 OPS). Behind Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays have Tyler Heineman and Nick Raposo on their 40-man roster, but Clarke is next in line, and we’ve seen how quickly one injury can change a catching position. This is a big spring for Clarke coming up.

3B/1B Damiano Palmegiani

This was a down year for Palmegiani, who put up a .692 OPS in 123 games with Buffalo and slipped down prospect lists, but he’s a good bet for a bounce-back season, and even in 2024 he did one thing very well: hit left-handed pitching (.856 OPS vs. southpaws). He also worked some left field into his defensive rotation, which can only help him. Palmegiani will need to play his way back into this conversation, but with power, a little versatility and the ability to crush lefties, there’s always a chance.

2B/OF Adrian Pinto

Pinto was listed by our Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis as the Blue Jays’ toughest call, and Toronto will likely benefit from the fact that the 22-year-old has been limited to just 61 games over the past two years and hasn’t reached Double-A yet. He’s exciting, though. Pinto is a ball of fire who makes contact with everything. He impressed in the AFL (.749 OPS in 25 games) and has some exciting utility potential.

CF Dasan Brown

Brown’s incredible speed and elite defensive potential could be enough to get him to the big leagues all by themselves. Whether he hits is the question, so Brown (Toronto's No. 23 prospect) is likely headed for another look at Double-A to open the season. He’ll always be closer to the big leagues than his offensive numbers suggest.