Crew gears up for busy WM with new baseball ops head

MILWAUKEE -- As the Brewers approach a crossroads with so many core players inching toward free agency, principal owner Mark Attanasio set a tone early in this offseason.

The posture, he said, remains the same: Postseason or bust.

“I can tell you we’re taking a harder look at things than we had in seasons that we made the playoffs, and I think that will make us better,” Attanasio said in October. “We’re really intent on getting back to the playoffs next year. Really intent.”

With next week’s Winter Meetings in San Diego set to add some fuel to baseball’s offseason, the Brewers’ recent subtractions have outshined their additions. They traded closer Josh Hader to the Padres in August with a year and a half of club control remaining, anticipating they wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Last week they traded their OPS leader, Hunter Renfroe, to the Angels for three young pitchers as Renfroe entered his walk year. And in between those deals, they transitioned from David Stearns to Matt Arnold at the head of the baseball operations department after Stearns opted to step down. (He remains with the organization as a consultant.)

Still, Attanasio and Arnold characterize the Brewers as contenders in the National League Central, which figures to tighten next season as the Cubs continue to build back from a rebuild and join the Cardinals and Brewers in a more aggressive posture. Leading the way is Arnold, Stearns’ longtime lieutenant, who has a player development background and more experience with mid-market teams -- he’s been with the Reds, Rays and Brewers since 2003 -- than with big-spenders.

“I feel like I'm ready for this,” Arnold said when he took over the top spot from Stearns, the architect of four consecutive postseason teams from 2018-21. “All we can do is just continue to build on that momentum, and I'm really excited about that. Ultimately -- hopefully -- that momentum leads us to where we want to be, which is to bring a World Series here to Milwaukee.”

Key events

• Sunday, Dec. 4: HOF Contemporary Era ballot results released (Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro, Curt Schilling)
• Monday, Dec. 5: All-MLB Team announced
• Tuesday, Dec. 6: Inaugural Draft Lottery, AL/NL Relievers of Year announced
• Wednesday, Dec. 7: Rule 5 Draft

Club needs
The Brewers lost a lot of offensive thump when they dealt Renfroe but appear open to trading his power for additional speed and give those at-bats to young outfield prospects including Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Esteury Ruiz. The more immediate need could be in the run prevention department, especially the bullpen and catcher. The Brewers lost primary catcher Omar Narváez to free agency after developing him into one of baseball’s premier pitch-framers, leaving Victor Caratini, unproven Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry -- a former Brewers prospect who was brought back earlier this offseason in a trade with the Marlins. Former Cub Willson Contreras is the top catcher available on the market.

The Brewers also have holes in the bullpen after trading Hader and declining Brad Boxberger’s option after the World Series. Right now, the top setup option to closer Devin Williams is Matt Bush, who surrendered six home runs after coming to the Brewers at the Trade Deadline, including five homers over his final 15 games.

Potential trade candidates
After declining their option on Boxberger and waiving Brent Suter, the Brewers have two players on the roster who are slated to be free agents following this season: Caratini and second baseman Kolten Wong. The Brewers opted to exercise Wong’s $10 million option rather than buy him out for $2 million, meaning he’s poised to be in the Opening Day lineup for a third straight season. But there’s also the possibility the Brewers trade Wong and use a player like Luis Urías or Brice Turang at second base. The Mariners are among the teams which reportedly have shown interest.

Less certain is whether the Brewers would consider trading any of their stars with two or more years of control remaining, a list that includes co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff and shortstop Willy Adames. That’s a much more complicated proposition that hinges in part on whether the club thinks it can extend those players before they reach free agency. Arnold has repeatedly said he is open to engaging those players on long-term deals.

Prospect to know
Four of the top eight players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Brewers prospects list are outfielders who've reached Triple-A, and barring a signing or a trade for a veteran bat, it appears we’ll learn a lot about them in 2023. Brewers fans already got a good look at Mitchell (No. 5) and a glimpse of Ruiz (No. 8), while Frelick (No. 2) and Joey Wiemer (No. 3) topped out at Triple-A and are not yet on the 40-man roster. With left fielder Christian Yelich the only incumbent starter in the outfield, there are lots of at-bats up for grabs.

Rule 5 Draft
The Brewers weren’t particularly active in the Rule 5 Draft under Stearns, so this year will start to tell whether that changes with Arnold in charge. The bullpen happens to be one area teams sometimes find a fit for a Rule 5 acquisition, and there are plenty of pitchers to choose from. In terms of Brewers prospects left unprotected, 21-year-old infielder Felix Valerio (No. 15 prospect) was the highest-ranked player left off the 40-man by Milwaukee. The 5-foot-7 Valerio is known for his bat-to-ball skills but had a down year in 2022, with a .228/.313/.357 slash line at Double-A Biloxi. Our MLB.com experts picked 25-year-old right-hander Victor Castaneda as the Brewers’ most intriguing unprotected player.

Burning question
How far will the Brewers push payroll? Milwaukee’s season-ending payroll in the $137 million neighborhood was a franchise record, according to Fangraphs’ detailed calculations. At the moment, that same site projects about $115 million in 2023 commitments based on the current roster, including arbitration estimates.