5 intriguing ZiPS projections for '25 Mariners

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SEATTLE -- It’s projection season over at many of the analytically forward websites covering baseball, including FanGraphs, which has already revealed the forecasts from one of its most popular systems.

That would be ZiPS, which gives an outlook for every player’s stats for the upcoming season.

Here are five interesting player projections for the Mariners in 2025. For context, these were released before the holidays, meaning no additions to the 40-man roster since were included.

1) Cal Raleigh is getting comps to Hall of Famers
ZiPS offers three historical comparisons per player based on their age and performance, past and the future expected. Two of Raleigh’s three are Hall of Famers -- Johnny Bench and Gabby Hartnett -- and the third is Todd Hundley, a two-time All-Star. Bench is in the conversation among the best catchers in the sport’s history.

In today’s era, Raleigh has emerged as one of MLB’s best overall backstops, leading the position in homers each of the past three years while winning the Platinum Glove Award last year as the best overall defender in the American League. He’s finally earned more recognition outside the Pacific Northwest, too.

ZiPS doesn’t account for pedigree, though, just production -- and the algorithms say that Raleigh is on a trajectory to remain one of the game’s greats as he enters the prime of his career.

2) J.P. Crawford will bounce back
After a season in which he offered blunt self-criticism, Seattle’s shortstop could be set for a solid rebound. ZiPS valued Crawford for 3.1 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, which would be third-highest on the team among position players, behind Julio Rodríguez (5.8) and Raleigh (4.9).

The Mariners would take that production from Crawford in a heartbeat, who was worth 1.6 WAR last year, when he hit .202 with a .625 OPS, both career lows. Part of his struggles could certainly be correlated to the right oblique strain and right hand fracture that limited him to 105 games.

3) Ben Williamson will be their top prospect contributor
The most intriguing projection might have been the 2.1 WAR that ZiPS valued the up-and-coming third baseman, who is expected to contribute in 2025, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said at the Winter Meetings. Williamson is ranked Seattle’s No. 15 prospect by MLB Pipeline.

Much of that number, however, was tied to Williamson’s defense, which has been touted among the best at the hot corner in the Minors. There’s still room for growth for Williamson’s bat, many scouts believe.

“ZiPS rates Ben Williamson as one of the best Minor League third basemen it’s seen in the decade it’s been able to use hit location/trajectory for Minor League defense,” wrote Dan Szymborski, who oversees the system. “If his bat develops and the computer isn’t hallucinating about his glove, he could become a serious keeper.”

4) Gregory Santos and Matt Brash will be key cogs in the bullpen
The Mariners are banking on emphatic returns from injury-plagued seasons to both relievers, and ZiPS offered some encouraging signs to support those hopes. Santos pitched in just eight games last year after dealing with extended injuries to his pitching lat and biceps, and Brash missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in early May.

The projections have Santos, who returned before season’s end and is expected to be at full strength this spring, posting a 2.56 ERA and 63 strikeouts over 51 outings, and Brash, who the Mariners are cautiously optimistic could return by early May, with a 3.11 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 45 outings.

Additionally, ZiPS has Andrés Muñoz matching the 33.2% strikeout rate he posted last year, to go with a 2.62 ERA.

5) The rotation’s consistency
The starting five of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo is again expected to thrive in 2025, with ZiPS forecasting that each will have a sub-3.70 ERA and an ERA+ over 100, which is league average.

Here's something even more interesting. ZiPS also does every player's 80th percentile projections -- that is, what a high-end season for that player could look like -- and within that criteria, Gilbert (2.78), Kirby (2.82) and Woo (2.94) each registered sub-3.00 ERAs, with Castillo (3.02) and Miller (3.11) not far off.