How Ferguson could help solve the Bucs' lefty problems

This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf’s Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Pirates had a lefty problem in their bullpen last season. Manager Derek Shelton buys into left-on-left matchups late in games, and it yielded fairly solid results in his first years at the helm, but not in 2024.

Last season, left-handed hitters had a .267 batting average against Pittsburgh's left-handed relievers and walked at a 12% clip. That was the worst batting average allowed against lefties in the National League and the second-highest walk rate. Going by wOBA (weighted on-base average), their .329 clip was the worst in the National League. Bringing in a left-handed pitcher to face a left-handed hitter is supposed to be an advantage for the pitcher. It wasn’t.

A lot of that has to do with personnel. Ryan Borucki missed most of the season and had some rust when he returned in September. Jose E. Hernandez regressed and was designated for assignment. Josh Flemming, Jalen Beeks and Justin Bruihl didn’t help much either. The Pirates tried different arms, but it didn’t click.

That’s what makes this week’s signing of Caleb Ferguson intriguing. Yes, there’s a possibility the Pirates could explore what he could do as a starter, but he’s been a reliever for almost all of his Major League career (and has maxed out at 60 1/3 innings in an MLB season). And as a reliever, he could solve the team’s lefty problem.

Ferguson had a rough couple of months with the Yankees to start last year, but finished strong with the Astros after being acquired at the Trade Deadline (3.86 ERA, 2.88 FIP in Houston). Some of that could just be a bounce back to his career norms. He was one of the Dodgers’ top bullpen arms in 2023, leading the team in appearances. Ferguson’s 3.37 ERA and 47.2% ground-ball rate since the start of the 2022 season are 13th among left-handed relief pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched. He has a solid track record.

But Ferguson also did something new in Houston: He started throwing his sinker more.

Ferguson basically lived on a four-seam fastball and cutter in 2023, but experimented with his pitch mix with the Yankees. He started throwing a slurve, which has plenty of spin and gets a good amount of whiffs (32.2%). He also tried out a sinker at the start of the season, but shelved it after some poor early returns. When he went to Houston, he brought back the sinker, and it actually became his most-used pitch against left-handed batters.

The new pitch worked. On the season, lefty batters hit just .200 against Ferguson’s sinker with a 75.5 mph average exit velocity and -3 degree launch angle. It’s probably not a strikeout pitch, but when you average a weakly hit ground ball with a pitch, you don’t need to get a lot of whiffs.

Ferguson did have some difficulty getting the pitch in the zone consistently, but it was new and the sample size is small, so that’s not too surprising. It also got above average horizontal movement (15.8 inches). It does get below average vertical bite (21.5 inches with gravity factored in, -1.4 inches compared to comparable arm slots), so that might make it a pitch for just left-handers, but he already has an effective tool against right-handers: His cutter. The cutter gets whiffs (33.6%) and keeps batters in check (.130 batting average against). That can be the punchout pitch, but a sinker is the ideal ground ball pitch. Given his struggles with his four-seamer last year (.309 BAA), the cutter and sinker could be an avenue to use his four-seamer less.

Ferguson is coming off a down year statistically, but he has the tools to bounce back in 2025. Time will tell what his role will be -- the Pirates need to learn more about him too before any decisions are made -- but the bullpen is a pressing need this offseason. They have to improve from their 4.49 ERA last season, and neutralizing left-handers is a big part of that equation.

Regardless of his role, continuing to attack left-handed hitters with sinkers looks like a winning plan for Ferguson. If it’s done out of the bullpen, it could fix a problem that needs rectified. Time will tell if Ferguson will be throwing those sinkers in the early or late innings.