How the Cardinals could shake up the trade market

The St. Louis Cardinals, for the second time in a row and the fifth time in the last decade, missed the playoffs in 2024. Perhaps most ominously, a sense has crept in -- among the fanbase and even the organization itself -- that the Cardinals are no longer on the cutting edge. Other teams have passed them, and the franchise is in need of something it hasn’t resorted to often: a significant shake-up.

Indeed, the Cardinals announced, shortly after the season ended, that Chaim Bloom, the former chief baseball officer of the Red Sox, would take over from longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak a year from now. Bloom, who already served as an advisor in 2024, will spend a year restructuring the farm system. Mozeliak, as he said in his season-ending press conference, will be looking to trim payroll as the club invests more heavily in player development. The Cardinals are pivoting.

This is an unusual situation for the Cardinals, to say the least, as a team with only two losing seasons this century. And, to be fair, they’re still planning to be competitive in 2025. But they are doing so while foocusing on their young players, of which they have plenty, including Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese and Iván Herrera. More are coming up through the system, including left-hander Quinn Mathews, the Minor League Pitching Prospect of the Year.

The flip side is that some of St. Louis’ more established and costly veteran players could be trade candidates. It’s an opportunity, both for the Cardinals to bolster their stable of young talent, and for some playoff-hungry teams to fill holes or upgrade with an eye toward making a run in 2025.

There are four key Cardinals players who could be on the move -- and who could change the complexion of any team in baseball. (That’s not even accounting for veteran pitchers like Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, or younger players such as Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar or Erick Fedde, who theoretically could be part of a larger package.)

Here is a closer look at that main quartet, what their value could be and which teams should be interested. It’s worth noting that the first three have no-trade clauses that they would have to waive to clear the way for a deal. (Each player is listed with his 2025 seasonal age.)

Nolan Arenado, 3B, age 34

After the very fun 2022 season -- that’s the one where the Cardinals made the playoffs, Arenado finished third in MVP voting and Albert Pujols had all those glorious goodbyes -- Arenado surprised some by not opting out of his contract, agreeing to stay with the Cardinals through 2027. That move was predicated, though, on the Cardinals going all-in every year -- a reasonable presumption, since it’s something they’ve tried to do every year for two decades. Now, though? Now might be the time for Arenado to jump.

Arenado has regressed with the bat over the last couple of seasons, mostly in the power department, hitting only 16 homers in 152 games this year. However, he’s still above average at the plate and, after a difficult 2023 in the field, rebounded to return to his status as one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball this year. He’s also Nolan Arenado, probable future Hall of Famer, and a veteran that everyone loves to have on their team. He would fit a lot of places, as long as it’s a team that is looking to win now.

The Mariners would love him. The Dodgers have tried to trade for him in the past. The Astros could use him, if they don’t bring back Alex Bregman. The Yankees could, too, if they move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base or center field. He could be an ideal fit with the Phillies, particularly if, as rumored, they’re willing to trade Alec Bohm. Arenado is not even that expensive, with three years and $74 million remaining on his contract (not counting the portion the Rockies are paying). Planning on trying to win a World Series the next three seasons? Arenado certainly can help with that.

Willson Contreras, C, age 33

Theoretically, this would seem to be off the table, now that the Cardinals have announced that Contreras will move out from behind the plate to first base (and designated hitter). But just about everything involving Contreras has been in flux, through no fault of his own, since he signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal to go to St. Louis before the 2023 season. Why should this be any different?

He was, oddly, taken out of the catcher’s role just a month into his first season (right before a series at Wrigley Field against his old mates, no less), he was criticized for not being Yadier Molina behind the plate, he suffered multiple freak injuries in 2024, including having his wrist broken on a batter’s swing. But throughout it all, Contreras hit: He actually had the highest OPS+ (136) of his career in 2024.

The Cardinals have young catchers behind him whom they’d like to get more playing time (Herrera and Pedro Pagés), which is why they want to switch Contreras to first. But another complicating factor is that the Cardinals have several other hitters it might make some sense to try there, now that Paul Goldschmidt is out of the picture: Gorman, for example, or even Walker. And maybe Contreras decides he really does want to catch again.

If made available, Contreras would instantly become one of the best upgrades in the sport -- a catcher who can rake, is better behind the plate than he’s given credit for and, don’t forget, a World Series champion and intense competitor. His bat plays anywhere, regardless. San Diego would be a lovely place for him to land, as would Houston, a team he almost signed with rather than the Cardinals in the first place.

Sonny Gray, RHP, age 35

Wait, didn’t the Cardinals just sign Gray? They did! They inked Gray to a three-year, $75 million deal (plus a club option) last November, and while Gray wasn’t the Cy Young contender he was in 2023, he was a linchpin of the Cardinals' staff, giving them 166 1/3 innings and a 3.84 ERA. We’ve of course also seen him have ace stuff many times, including in '24; he’s a bonafide postseason starter and a rotation cog that every team wants.

He’s more expensive in 2025 and '26 than he was in '24 -- the Cardinals still owe him $60 million of that $75 million -- but it’s unlikely that any team can go out and find a Sonny Gray-caliber pitcher on the free-agent market for just a two-year commitment. Wouldn’t he be an ideal fit for the Braves if they lose Max Fried to free agency? Gray is even from Tennessee and has cited a desire to stay close to home.

Ryan Helsley, RHP, age 30

This is the one player on this list who is still arbitration eligible and doesn’t have a no-trade clause -- and he might just bring back the biggest return. Helsley might have been the best non-Emmanuel Clase closer in baseball this year, posting a 2.04 ERA, striking out 79 in 66 1/3 innings and leading the Majors with a Cardinals record 49 saves. While he’s due for a raise in his final year of arbitration after making $3.8 million in 2024, he still won’t be terribly expensive. Helsley is 30 years old and at his absolute peak right now.

He’d be with a team for just one season before hitting free agency, but what a year it could be. Imagine how much better Orioles fans, or Dodgers fans, or really any team’s fans would feel with this guy coming in for the ninth inning of a playoff game? He was the Cardinals’ lone All-Star in 2024. He may be the best piece they have available, because every team could use him, but a team with serious championship aspirations could use him more than the Cardinals in 2025.