Tigers counting on Mize to bounce back in '25

This story was excerpted from Jason Beck's Tigers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

For most players, a contract option declined would be a major statement, starting an offseason of uncertainty. For Casey Mize, it means little.

From the moment the Tigers and Mize avoided arbitration last winter with a one-year contract that included the $3.1 million club option, it was unlikely to be exercised. Unless Mize had an incredible comeback season after he essentially lost two years to Tommy John and back surgeries, Detroit was expected to go back to arbitration with him. The option was a secondary piece to a deal that came together to avoid an arbitration hearing over a $25,000 difference in salary proposals.

Make no mistake: Mize still faces an offseason of uncertainty. But it has everything to do with what he does on the mound.

“My hope is that he has a big offseason and that he shows up to Lakeland [for Spring Training] with as high a ceiling as anyone has in this organization,” president of baseball operations Scott Harris said at season’s end. “He has that ability, he has that work ethic, and those are pretty compelling combinations.”

Five years after the Tigers assembled a prospect-loaded rotation at Double-A Erie that was expected to form the backbone of Detroit’s rebuild, Tarik Skubal -- a ninth-round Draft pick in 2018 -- is the one pitcher from the group to break out. Alex Faedo, a 2017 first-rounder, has found a role in the bullpen. Matt Manning, the ninth overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, made just five starts for Detroit in an injury-plagued season that saw Keider Montero pass him on the rotation depth chart.

Mize, the top overall pick from the 2018 Draft, is the mystery of the group. He was a 3.4 bWAR player in 2021, second on the Tigers to Jeimer Candelario. He began the 2022 season as Detroit's No. 2 starter behind Eduardo Rodríguez when a right elbow injury in the second start of the season brought his career to a standstill. Not only did Mize have Tommy John surgery that summer, he had back surgery as well, a one-two punch that cost him the rest of 2022 as well as '23.

This season was always going to be a reintroduction for Mize to get back into the routine of pitching. The first year back from Tommy John surgery usually sees pitchers battle inconsistency, and Mize had quite a fight. He had a 3.08 ERA in April, including six scoreless innings at Minnesota, then posted a 6.56 ERA in May that included six runs on nine hits over just 1 2/3 innings at Kansas City.

After two months lost to a left hamstring strain, Mize was in the bullpen by season’s end. By the postseason, he was a depth piece, left unused in Detroit’s Wild Card Series win at Houston and then left off the roster entirely for the Division Series against Cleveland.

“I think there were some positives this year for Casey,” Harris said. “I think he’s pitching with a different fastball than he’s ever had before. That fastball can be explosive at the top rail. He can miss bats at the top rail with it. I think some of the adjustments we are looking for, and that he is actively working on, are with his secondary pitches, to find the slider that he can command to both sides of the plate, to find the split that can go strike to ball, that could really put a hitter away when he gets to two strikes.”

The fastball velocity of 95.5 mph was easily the highest of Mize's Major League career, and it ranked just outside the top quarter of MLB pitchers according to Statcast. He accomplished his Spring Training goal of getting more ride on his four-seamer: His induced vertical break of 16.2 inches was above the MLB average for the first time in his career. But too often, Mize left fastballs in the middle of the zone, a reflection of that command issue.

His secondary pitches were another matter. His splitter was great in some stretches (.174 average allowed in April, 44.1 percent whiff rate in September) and pounded in others (.579 average allowed in June). His slider struggled for the swing and misses he needed.

The result was a pitcher who struggled to finish off hitters. Mize gave up almost as many baserunners in two-strike counts (50 hits, 23 walks) as he had strikeouts (78).

The Tigers pride themselves on their ability to help pitchers improve and rebound, as they did with free-agent signings Michael Lorenzen and Jack Flaherty. If Mize was a free agent cut loose by another organization, his ability, health and metrics would fit the profile of a pitcher Detroit would want.

“He still has all of the God-given ability in the world,” Harris said. “He is one of the more determined workers we have in our clubhouse. We’ve just got to find a way, now that he’s healthy and now that he is removed from the [surgery]. … I think just refining a little bit of both the [pitch] shapes and the way he’s executing the shapes can unlock that potential and translate it into performance.”