Is Sale's velocity drop a reason for concern?

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ATLANTA -- Chris Sale's four-seam fastball averaged 95.9 mph as he limited the Dodgers to one run over six innings on Sept. 14. Why is that important? Well, this little bit of data may at least pause any concerns you might have about Sale’s velocity through this year’s first few starts.

Or maybe, there’s no sugarcoating the fact that 28% (26 of 93) of the four-seamers Sale has thrown this year have been clocked at 92 mph or slower. Just 5.1% (55 of 1071) were clocked that slow last year.

When Sale threw a few four-seamers that ranged between 89.1 to 91.6 mph during the first couple innings of his April 1 start at Dodger Stadium, I thought it might have been a Statcast glitch. Or maybe it was just the cold weather? Maybe it had to do with him pitching on normal rest? Or maybe it was just an April Fools’ joke.

The prank theory was still in play when he started hitting 95 mph toward the end of the second inning and into the third.

Sale then threw a couple fastballs that registered around 92 mph during the first inning of Tuesday’s game against the Phillies, but he hit 96.1 mph and 97.3 mph on consecutive pitches to Kyle Schwarber later in the same frame.

Sale was fine, right? Well, overall, the four-seamer averaged 92.7 mph that night. That’s the lowest average he has produced in a game since the start of last year.

It has been good to see Sale show he still has some of the high velocity stuff in his tank, even if we haven’t seen it as consistently as we did last year. But as the 2024 National League Cy Young Award winner has surrendered an .822 opponents’ OPS through his first three starts, it’s obvious he’s not where he wants to be.

His four-seamer has averaged 93.2 mph through three starts. That same pitch averaged 94.9 mph last year.

“It just hasn’t clicked yet,” Sale said. “It’s frustrating, obviously.”

Sale’s history, which included injuries limiting him to a total of 151 innings from 2020-23, obviously leads to concerns about his health. But this could just be a mechanical issue. Sale’s arm angle has dropped from 11 degrees in 2024 to seven degrees this year.

Is this an indication he’s still bothered by the back issues that shut him down at the end of last year? Or is this just a delivery issue that the 36-year-old hurler needs to address?

“I think the more he gets out there, the better he’ll be,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said.

Sale’s four-seamer average in each of this year’s starts
? March 27 at San Diego: 94.2 mph
? April 1 at Los Angeles: 93.1 mph
? April 8 vs. Philadelphia: 92.7

Note: His four-seamer averaged 94.7 mph over his first three starts of 2024

Sale’s three lowest four-seam avg. velocities in 2024 games
? Sept. 8 vs. Toronto: 93.6 mph
? Sept. 3 vs. Colorado: 93 mph
? Sept. 18 at Cincinnati: 93 mph

Those three starts were all leading up to the back discomfort that prevented Sale from pitching after Sept. 19. But stuck in the middle of this stretch was that start mentioned in this story’s first sentence. Just as it looked like he was fading, he displayed one of his best fastballs of the year during that late-season start against the Dodgers.

Without that start, we’d be looking at a troubling string that stretched back to the start of September. But with that start, we have reason to think the velocity could quickly move in the right direction.

It’s hard not to be a skeptic in the sports world. But all indications are that the Braves are confident some minor mechanical changes are all Sale needs to get back on track.