Do the Cubs have a realistic path to October?

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CLEVELAND -- Cubs lefty Justin Steele insists he is not the type to regularly check the standings. He prepares for his next start, then goes out and pitches -- adopting tunnel vision to narrow his focus to the task in front of him rather than the big picture.

“I have no idea what our record is,” Steele said after Saturday’s 3-1 win over the White Sox.

Told that the Cubs (59-60) were one game under .500, Steele smirked.

“That’s good,” he replied.

Do not get Steele wrong. He knows the Cubs have been in comeback mode with little margin for error after how the team played through May and during June. And since the Fourth of July, the North Siders have posted a 20-12 record -- the second-most wins in the National League during that span, trailing only the D-backs (23).

Steele may not know the exact win total, but he has felt the difference lately.

“Oh, yeah. I mean, you can definitely tell we’re winning more ballgames,” Steele said. “But I never really look at the standings or anything, or look at records. I mean, last year toward the end -- when we were like one game out -- I started paying a little closer attention. But at this point, we’ve just got to win ballgames. It doesn’t really matter.”

Cubs manager Craig Counsell and the players have stressed the importance of “stacking up wins” over the past few weeks as the team tries to claw back to the fringe of the NL Wild Card race. The question is whether Chicago can keep raising the “W” flag enough over the final 43 games to successfully pull off an improbable in-season turnaround that ends in a postseason berth.

Heading into Monday’s series opener in Cleveland, FanGraphs gives the Cubs a 9.4% chance of reaching the postseason. That is up from a season-low 3.5% on July 30. Back on July 3 -- prior to the Cubs’ recent hot streak -- the team had a 4.9% chance. So while there has been clear progress, the odds are still against the Cubs punching their October ticket.

Since July 4, the Cubs’ offense has posted a .748 OPS (sixth in NL during that span) with a 109 wRC+ (tied for sixth in NL). Chicago’s 2.98 ERA overall is first in the NL in that span, including a 1.69 ERA from the bullpen (best in the NL) and a 3.76 ERA from the rotation (second in the NL).

“It does feel like it is still within our grasp, as far as controlling what we can,” Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “I do think you’re seeing a very complete version of us right now, as far as starting pitching, bullpen, defense and a full lineup. So, I think we’re in a good spot.”

One issue is that the Cubs, who are three games back of the Braves (61-56) for the final NL Wild Card spot, are done playing the six teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race. Chicago finished with a split of the series with the D-backs (3-3), and logged losing records against the Padres (2-4), Braves (2-4), Mets (3-4), Cardinals (6-7) and Giants (3-4). That means all five of those teams own the tiebreaker over the Cubs -- and the D-backs also have a significant edge in the second tiebreaker (intradivision record). Arizona is 19-14 against its division while Chicago is just 17-26.

That said, the Cubs do have one more game at home (22) than on the road (21) the rest of the way. On top of that, Chicago has 31 games against teams with a losing record. The other dozen games are in series against the Guardians (three games in Cleveland), Yankees (three at home), Dodgers (three in L.A.) and Phillies (three in Philadelphia).

“Like I’ve said, and it still holds, we dug ourselves a hole,” Counsell said. “We’re trying to dig out of it and we’re trying to put ourselves within striking distance here. Just keep playing good baseball. There’s time. But we’ve got to play good baseball.”