How Arizona could have a new-look offense in '25

This story was excerpted from Steve Gilbert’s D-backs Beat newsletter, with MLB.com's Manny Randhawa filling in while Gilbert is on vacation. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Which team scored the most runs in 2024? No, not the Dodgers. Not the Yankees. Not the Phillies. The team that scored the most runs last season was the D-backs, with 886. Arizona’s offense was surprisingly the best in MLB by several metrics, and when you look under the hood for some reasons why, they become evident fairly quickly:

Ketel Marte had what was by many measures the best season of his career, earning him a spot among the National League MVP finalists; the club got 33 home runs and an .873 OPS from its designated hitters (primarily Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk) and the duo of Christian Walker and Eugenio Suárez customarily gave the D-backs big production from the corner infield spots, combining for 56 homers.

Three of those five players will likely be playing elsewhere in 2025, as Pederson, Grichuk and Walker test the free agency waters. That’s a big chunk of Arizona’s offense from 2024; how will the D-backs replace it?

In short: It won’t be easy, but there’s a path to filling the void.

Internally, Pavin Smith stands out as one of the potential contributors to that cause. The surge at the plate Smith enjoyed last season bodes well for Arizona -- the 28-year-old slashed .270/.348/.547 with nine homers, three of which came in consecutive at-bats on Sept. 8 against the Astros. Over the final month of the season, he posted a 1.061 OPS with six homers.

Can we expect similar production from Smith in 2025, perhaps helping to fill the vacancy left by Walker at first base? A look at the quality of contact metrics suggests Smith’s ’24 success, albeit in a relatively small sample, was no fluke. His 44% hard-hit rate was a career high, as was his 14.7% barrel rate (nearly double what it was in ’23), and his expected batting average was actually higher than his actual batting average (.293 to .270), suggesting he was a bit unlucky.

Smith was very good, but a note of caution is that his success came in 158 plate appearances, about a quarter of a season at the plate.

Another internal candidate to watch is the club’s No. 1 prospect, infielder Jordan Lawlar. The No. 6 overall pick from the 2021 Draft was limited to 23 Minor League games last year due to injury, but in those games, he hit .318/.418/.482. He’s played in 28 games at the Triple-A level between 2023 and '24, posting a slash line of .362/.438/.603 with seven homers.

The caveats, of course, are that the Pacific Coast League is a high-offense environment and Lawlar only has 34 Major League plate appearances to his name.

What about the free agent market? Are there any options the D-backs could look into there? If Arizona wants to swim at the deep end of the free agent pool, it could pursue slugging first baseman Pete Alonso to fill the hole at that position left by Walker. But a more affordable -- and familiar -- target might be Paul Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt, who was drafted by the D-backs and played for Arizona from 2011-18, is 37 years old and coming off his worst season at the plate -- he hit .245/.302/.414 (98 OPS+) with 22 home runs in 2024. But he finished stronger than he began and is still only two years removed from winning the NL MVP Award.

There were also some encouraging underlying metrics that suggest Goldschmidt might have something left in the tank -- his 49.6% hard-hit rate ranked in the top 8% among qualified hitters, according to Statcast. His 10.7% barrel rate wasn’t far from his barrel rate during his 2022 MVP campaign (11.6). His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were both higher than the actual figures.

The big issues for Goldschmidt were his elevated strikeout rate and declining walk rate -- he struck out 26.4% of the time, his highest rate since he was a rookie in 2011, while his 7.2% walk rate was the lowest of his career. If he can return those closer to his career norms, he could still be a productive hitter.

In a similar vein, there’s another aging slugger on the market who had a subpar campaign in 2024 but is not far removed from prodigious production. With Pederson potentially departing, DH extraordinaire J.D. Martinez could be a fit. He’d likely have to settle for a short deal at an affordable rate after he posted a .725 OPS with 16 homers for the Mets.

As with Goldschmidt, the D-backs are familiar with Martinez -- he helped Arizona reach the postseason in 2017 by launching 29 homers in 62 games following a trade from the Tigers.

Two seasons ago, Martinez slugged .572 with 33 homers for the Dodgers. He’s also entering his age-37 campaign, so it would be a risk -- though likely not an expensive one -- to try and replace the lost production at DH with Martinez, production that was invaluable for Arizona in 2024.

On the other hand, as in Goldschmidt's case, many of Martinez's underlying metrics were still solid -- he had a 14.9% barrel rate and he actually struck out less often and walked more often than in '23.

This past season was an unusual one for the D-backs -- they led MLB in many offensive categories and their starting rotation, which was expected to be a strength, was a liability for much of the year.

As Arizona looks for a bounce-back performance from its starters, it will have to figure out how to replace the offense that could be leaving in the coming weeks if it wants to get back to the postseason after a surprise World Series run in 2023.