Could Padres trade Cease? Arraez? Why the hold up on Bregman??

Happy new year! (Is it too late to say that?)

With Spring Training only a month away and dozens of free agents still looking for jobs, it seemed like a good time to dive into the inbox and answer some hot stove questions.

Some questions have been edited for content and clarity.

Who are the Padres most likely to trade away?
-- @JasonLSwitzer

There have been a number of players mentioned this offseason as potential trade candidates to varying degrees, five in particular: Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, Jake Cronenworth, Michael King and Robert Suarez.

Let’s knock King off the list, because even if he wins his arbitration case against the Padres, he’ll be earning $8.8 million in his final year before free agency, which is a bargain for a starting pitcher of his caliber. Cease – another impending free agent – will earn $13.75 million in 2025, and while the Padres could certainly use him in the rotation, he could very well be dealt -- especially if San Diego wins the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. Given the need for starting pitching around the league, the Padres would likely be open to trading Cease if they can find a team willing to part with controllable players and/or prospects.

Arraez will earn $14 million in his final season before free agency, while Cronenworth has six years and $73 million remaining on his contract, so while moving either player would help shed some payroll, it’s unclear whether the Padres would be able to get a substantial return for either of them.

Suarez feels like the most logical given the Padres’ strong bullpen, which also includes Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon. Suarez is set to earn $10 million this season and has a two-year, $16 million club option that must be exercised or declined at the end of the 2025 World Series, which presents an intriguing option for any club potentially acquiring the All-Star closer.

Where could the Royals look for outfield help?
-- @x23nichols

In all likelihood, any help at this point will come from the trade market, as Kansas City doesn’t seem to be in the mix to spend in free agency.

The Royals have been active this offseason, bringing back Michael Wacha on a three-year, $51 million contract, signing Michael Lorenzen to a one-year, $7 million deal, and trading Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer.

Potential trade candidates could include Jesús Sánchez, Jake McCarthy and Mike Yastrzemski, though the truth is that the Royals may simply rely on bounce-back seasons from MJ Melendez and/or Hunter Renfroe rather than bringing in another outfielder. At the moment, those two project as the starters in the corners, with Kyle Isbel penciled into center field.

If they do look to the free-agent market, I don’t see the Royals spending for Anthony Santander or even Jurickson Profar, but what about Randal Grichuk, Austin Hays, Mark Canha, Harrison Bader, Alex Verdugo or Tommy Pham? There are a number of players still available who won’t break the bank.

Does Baltimore open the vault of prospects and make a trade for a starting pitcher?
-- @HeyMattPatt

Given the depth and quality of their farm system, it would make perfect sense for the Orioles to pursue such a trade. Whether they would be willing to deal away prospects for a pitcher in his final year before free agency, however, remains to be seen.

Baltimore did exactly that last winter, trading DL Hall and Joey Ortiz to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes, who was excellent for the O’s in 2024. But that’s the only season Burnes will be suiting up for Baltimore, having signed a six-year, $210 million deal with the D-backs last month.

So if GM Mike Elias decides not to roll the dice for a second straight year by trading for a player entering his walk year -- think Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, for example -- would he be willing to part with prospects to acquire a controllable starter?

The name that makes the most sense to me is Seattle’s Luis Castillo, who is owed $22.75 million in each of the next three years. Another possibility: Sonny Gray, who is likely available as the Cardinals do something of a reset, though he’s due $60 million over the next two seasons and has a full no-trade clause. St. Louis could also trade Erick Fedde and/or Steven Matz, though both are a step down from Castillo and Gray.

One other thought: It’s tough to think the D-backs wouldn’t pay down Jordan Montgomery’s salary without asking for much in return, so why not take a chance on the lefty bouncing back from his poor 2024 season?

How close is that Angels OF trade? Taylor Ward maybe?
-- @JPwbn973321

A number of my dear followers have had their share of fun with me on this one since I tweeted something at the Winter Meetings, so allow me to shine some light on how some of this stuff works.

For those unfamiliar with the post, on Dec. 10, I wrote this on X:

The Angels appear to be close to trading an outfielder, per source. Taylor Ward has been generating a lot of interest, so it would not be a surprise if it’s him.

At the time I reported that, the information I had from multiple sources was that the Angels were indeed in discussions to trade one of their outfielders. Was it a lock? No. That’s why the words “appear to be close” were in the post, because at the time, it appeared to be close. As for Ward, he had indeed been generating a lot of trade interest, so to speculate that it would not be a surprise if he was dealt wasn’t exactly a stretch -- but the report did not say Ward was the outfielder they were potentially close to moving.

As we all know, it’s been more than a month since that Winter Meetings report and the Angels have not traded an outfielder. The baseball offseason is fluid when it comes to the free-agent and trade markets, so the fact that Los Angeles has not moved an outfielder isn’t a shock. What may have been close on Dec. 10 may have crumbled hours, days or weeks later. It’s still possible that the Angels trade an outfielder before Spring Training, though if that happens, I won’t be looking for anyone to credit me for having that first.

What seems to be the hold up on Alex Bregman making a decision? Is it his perceived value of himself vs. team value? Mostly a difference in years on a contract?
-- @LezmanCameron

You nailed it with your last one. The biggest hold up seems to be the terms Bregman is seeking, namely a deal of seven years. The Astros offered him six years and $156 million before moving on with their trade for Isaac Paredes and signing of Christian Walker, essentially ending any chance of a return to Houston for Bregman.

The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets and Cubs are all still in the mix for Bregman to varying degrees, though none appear prepared to give him the deal he’s seeking.

Detroit seems to make the most sense on paper given its need for an impact bat and the relationship between Bregman and manager A.J. Hinch. The Red Sox would likely be looking at Bregman as a second baseman, while the Mets are still talking about a reunion with Pete Alonso, which would leave Mark Vientos at third base. Should talks between the Mets and Alonso stall, New York could pivot to Bregman, moving Vientos across the diamond to first base.

Unlike Alonso, Bregman doesn’t appear willing to accept a shorter-term deal with opt outs, which could result in him waiting even longer to find a new deal.

Will the Yankees wait until the Trade Deadline to address 3B?
-- @KerryDeMarco1

After Jazz Chisholm Jr. proved last season that he can handle the hot corner, the Yankees are in a good position in that they can fill their infield hole with an addition at either second or third. Ideally, New York would like to move Chisholm to second and add a third baseman, but neither Bregman nor Nolan Arenado seem to be options the Yankees are pursuing.

Among the remaining free-agent infielders the Yankees could look at are Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and Paul DeJong, any of whom could address the club’s need to start the season. If the Yankees decide they need an upgrade during the season, GM Brian Cashman has never been shy about making a midseason acquisition before the Deadline, and by then, more infielders may become available.

Thoughts on the Reds OF situation? Do you see them trading for someone like Luis Robert Jr. or Taylor Ward, or sign a short-term deal with Anthony Santander (with opt outs)?
-- @Just_A_Reds_Fan

Cincinnati’s new TV deal could push them back into the free-agent market or allow them to add payroll in a trade, but I’m not sure it’s going to be enough to sign Santander.

Trading for Robert or Ward will require giving up young talent, which is probably not something an up-and-coming team wants to do. Among the free-agent outfielders that could make sense for Cincinnati are Grichuk, Hays and Canha -- the same group I mentioned above for the Royals.

In addition to a corner outfielder, the Reds are in need of additional bullpen help, and with the number of quality arms still available, acquiring a good reliever might be more realistic.