Will Vladdy get his extension? And if so, when?

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- With five weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in Dunedin, Fla., the Blue Jays have left themselves with some work to do.

Here’s what’s on your mind as the offseason enters its home stretch:

Do you see an extension with Vladdy happening? How likely is it? -- @SaloKamahji (and everyone else)

It’s unlikely before the season. When Juan Soto blew the roof off free agency, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s potential future earnings shot up even further. In December, GM Ross Atkins said that the Blue Jays need to “stay disciplined” in extension talks with Guerrero, and with a front office that has tended to stick to its valuations, it feels unlikely they’ll chase a moving number right now. Yes, the Blue Jays want Guerrero, but so does every other team. It’s about finding the right number.

I’m still where I’ve been all along with Guerrero and the Blue Jays, who settled on a $28.5M deal to avoid arbitration on Thursday. The likeliest path to Guerrero staying in Toronto is taking the Aaron Judge route -- hitting free agency and feeling out the market first before re-signing.

If they don’t see Vladdy as a $400M-type player, how pressured would they feel to trade him? -- @Masterflip_

Building on the last thought, this has to be the next conversation. I’d still consider this very unlikely, as trading Guerrero would have to align with a complete sell-off of any other veterans the Blue Jays could get value for. This organization should be viewing this from the opposite side by going all in for what could be Guerrero’s final season here.

Why can’t the Blue Jays land one of these big names they’re “in” on? Do players not want to come to Canada? -- George N.

I don’t hang much of this on geography. Put yourselves in the shoes of a 29- or 31-year-old player signing what might be their last “big” contract. From their standpoint looking in, the Blue Jays are a 74-win team with a poor farm system. A year from now, you might be stuck as the default “face of the team” when Guerrero and Bo Bichette leave. The Blue Jays need to make this roster an attractive destination. It has been in the past. Right now it simply isn’t.

Who hits leadoff Opening Day? -- @LangilleEli

Good question. It’s time to explore lineups with George Springer in other spots, and I don’t expect Andrés Giménez to bat in the top half, so who’s left? The Blue Jays could blitz pitchers with Bichette’s aggression up top, but there’s a good chance the leadoff hitter isn’t on this roster right now. My pick for later in the season? Will Wagner.

Do you see Orelvis Martinez as an everyday player in 2025, and who do you think his closest comp Major Leaguer is at his ceiling? -- @G_Litzy10

I don’t see Martinez as an everyday player immediately, so this would take either an incredible start from the 23-year-old or a brutal start from the Blue Jays. I like the idea of easing him in as a part-time player and letting him crush some lefties.

A comp for Martinez? I might defer to Vladdy, who has said that Martinez reminds him of a young Hanley Ramírez. If Martinez can really hit, I see him eventually moving from the left side to first base or DH.

What do we make of Davis Schneider’s future with this team? Is there a chance of a dynamic turnaround, or will he be back in the Minors by June? -- @JesseBurrill17

Big, big spring for Schneider. The organization loves him, but he needs to rebound from 2024, and putting up numbers against lefties would be a great start. He can hit for power and play some left field, but he’ll face competition from outfielder Alan Roden eventually, and the Blue Jays are still expected to add. One thing that could open a door for Schneider is if Daulton Varsho (shoulder surgery) needs to open the season on the IL, which would slide Joey Loperfido or Jonatan Clase to center.

Which prospects have the best chances of making the Opening Day roster? -- @JoshHaggstrom

Roden feels like a good bet to be the spring favorite. He’ll see plenty of action and is an on-base machine who fits the style of hitter the Blue Jays love (think Spencer Horwitz). Jake Bloss is an injury away from the rotation and could be a swingman option, but there’s a good case to be made for him starting in Triple-A as the next man up.

This farm system needs to have a big year. Forget a success story, they need a dozen.

Why does no one seem to want Ernie Clement at 3B? The guy almost won a Gold Glove last year. -- @KitJenkin

Clement does feel like the forgotten man, but he shouldn’t be. I feel Clement is best cast as a utility player who finds his way into the lineup for 100-plus games. His ability to back up shortstop might not be needed as often in 2025 with Giménez around, but he’s a sharp defender anywhere on the infield, makes plenty of contact at the plate and is one of the best athletes on the roster. He’s a big leaguer.

Much was made of (and invested into) the player development complex in Dunedin. What value has that brought so far in your estimation? When do we see leaps forward in our prospects? -- @chrismcgregor

Great question, and this is something I want to speak to some people about while I’m down in Dunedin for Spring Training. When the renovations happened, I was a big believer that it would take some time. You wouldn’t see it immediately in the 22-year-old prospects, but eventually, you’d see the benefit in the 16-year-old prospects who got to spend a few years (and physically mature) while at the complex.

It’s about time for that to show up, isn’t it? Pitching injuries have really hurt this farm system, but it’s time to see a young hitter take a jump. They’re overdue.