Ranking the top 10 free-agent starters

Free agency is officially underway, and the strength of this 2023-24 class is starting pitching. That’s great news for a number of prominent teams that are hungry for talented arms this winter.

But who sits at the top of this prestigious group? The answer could have been Shohei Ohtani, but unfortunately, the two-way star sustained an injury to the UCL in his electrifying right elbow late in the season, leading to surgery that will keep him off the mound in 2024.

Because Ohtani will only serve as a DH this coming season, he was not considered for this free-agent edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings. Still, even without him, there are a number of available pitchers who will be at or near the top of some team’s rotation in 2024. Here is a look at the top 10, via our MLB.com voting panel.

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Orix Buffaloes (NPB)
It says something about Yamamoto’s game-changing ability that a pitcher who has yet to take the mound in the Majors bested a likely 2023 Cy Young Award winner in our poll. Yes, there is always risk in terms of how the performance of international players will translate to MLB. But Yamamoto, the most decorated pitcher in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, has so many factors in his favor. The 25-year-old is quite young for a free agent, and he has the eye-popping track record, high-powered pitch arsenal, big-game bona fides and a stuffed trophy case to make big league executives salivate. The Buffaloes have announced that they will soon make Yamamoto available via the posting system.

? Get to know Yoshinobu Yamamoto

2. Blake Snell, LHP, Padres
Snell is one of two pitchers on this list who is a Cy Young Award finalist, and he seems to stand a good chance of bolstering his free-agent resume by becoming the 22nd multitime winner. With that said, it was an unconventionally successful season for Snell, who issued the most walks in the Majors (99). The key? Holding opponents to a .152/.251/.219 line with runners in scoring position. So while Snell posted a dominant 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts, there is some question as to whether he can continue walking that tightrope so adeptly.

3. Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies
It’s difficult to imagine Nola in anything other than a Phillies uniform, with the 2014 first-round pick having made 235 starts for the club over the past nine seasons (plus nine in the playoffs). But the 30-year-old righty’s durability should make him a popular target this winter for clubs looking to stabilize their rotations. Since 2018, Nola ranks first in the Majors in starts (175) and a close second in innings (1,065 1/3) behind only Gerrit Cole.

4. Sonny Gray, RHP, Twins
Gray, who turned 34 on Tuesday, is an AL Cy Young Award finalist, which means that he’ll finish in the top three in his league for the second time in his career and first since 2015 with the A’s. It was about as good of a contract-year push as Gray reasonably could have expected: He took the ball 32 times for the Twins and delivered a 2.79 ERA and 154 ERA+, both the second-best full-season marks of his career. In a time when offenses thrive on hitting the ball out of the park, Gray surrendered just eight homers in 184 innings (an MLB-best 0.4 per nine).

? The latest Sonny Gray rumors

5. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Rangers
Having said that, it’s likely that no pitcher on this list did more this past season to enhance his profile than Montgomery. The 6-foot-6 southpaw did so more and more as the year went along, with a 3.42 ERA in 21 starts for the Cardinals, a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch for the Rangers following a Trade Deadline deal, then a 2.90 ERA over six games (five starts) during Texas’ championship run. Montgomery’s stuff doesn’t wow you, but the 30-year-old gets the job done.

6. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers
Two winters ago, Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers. While not everything went smoothly for him in Detroit, Rodriguez showed enough in 2023 to exercise his opt-out clause and take another crack at the open market. The 30-year-old lefty missed some time this past season with an injury to his left index finger but still had a 3.30 ERA over 26 starts, including 13 outings in which he went at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs.

7. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs
There are a number of similarities between Rodriguez and Stroman, who also chose to become a free agent (declining a 2024 player option) despite missing some time due to injury in 2023. Hip and rib cage issues in the second half derailed Stroman’s age-32 season, but before that, he posted a 2.88 ERA over his first 20 starts while nabbing his second All-Star selection. While Stroman lacks top-end size and velocity, he has shown a consistent ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark.

8. Shōta Imanaga, LHP, Yokohama BayStars (NPB)
Yamamoto isn’t the only Japanese starting pitcher who is expected to draw serious interest from an array of MLB clubs after being posted this offseason. Imanaga is older (30) and is not thought to be a potential ace like Yamamoto, but according to MLB Network’s Jon Paul Morosi, the lefty offers “elite competitiveness” and could slot in as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter.

• Get to know Shōta Imanaga

9. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Guardians
Unlike some of the other pitchers on this list, Giolito did not enter free agency on a high note. Over his final 14 starts -- including short stints with the Angels and Guardians following a Deadline trade -- Giolito’s 2023 ERA soared from 3.45 to 4.88, thanks in part to allowing eight or more earned runs three times. But for our voters, those late struggles didn’t completely overshadow the success Giolito had earlier in the year, as well as from 2019-21, when he received AL Cy Young Award votes each season.

10. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers
Even heading into his age-36 season, Kershaw likely would rank higher on this list if he were expected to pitch a full season in 2024. However, the 10-time All-Star announced recently he underwent surgery on his left shoulder following the Dodgers’ disappointing playoff run, adding: “I am hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.” As long as Kershaw is able to come back healthy, there is no reason to think he can’t continue to get outs and bolster his Hall of Fame credentials. No pitcher with at least 200 innings has a lower ERA than Kershaw (2.37) over the past two seasons.

Others receiving votes: Jack Flaherty (Orioles), Kyle Gibson (Orioles), Seth Lugo (Padres), Michael Wacha (Padres)

Note: Julio Urías is eligible for free agency, but he is currently on administrative leave while the league investigates allegations of domestic violence against him. Given that his status for Opening Day 2024 remains unclear, he was not included in these rankings.

Voters: David Adler, Brett Blueweiss, Paul Casella, Doug Gausepohl, Thomas Harrigan, Sarah Langs, Travis Miller, Ricardo Montes de Oca, Brian Murphy, Sweeny Murti, Manny Randhawa, Efrain Ruiz, Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, Andrew Simon, David Venn