Dodgers' steals leader is not who you expect. Here's how he does it

Forget Ronald Acu?a Jr. and his 73 stolen bases. How about Freddie Freeman getting 23?

Yes, in 2023, the year that brought back the stolen base, Freddie Freeman was the Dodgers' leading basestealer.

This is a Dodgers team that has Mookie Betts in the leadoff spot, mind you. But it's also no accident. Freeman is one of the smartest baserunners in the game, and he doesn't hesitate to capitalize on his opportunities.

So it sounds strange to say, but in the playoffs, where every baserunning decision matters -- just look at Bryce Harper's mad dash through a stop sign to score the Phillies a big run in the Wild Card Series, or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting picked off second by the Twins in a critical spot -- Freeman is one of the likeliest players to impact a game for L.A.

"I value 90 feet in this game," Freeman likes to say. That's become something of a mantra for his baserunning. "If a pitcher's gonna give you 90 feet, you've got to be able to take it."

Here's how he does it.

Freeman's baserunning value emerges from a combination of two factors:

• The sheer amount of opportunities he creates for himself to take extra bases, as one of the best hitters in the world
• His acumen in knowing when he can take advantage of them -- an aggressiveness that has blossomed since Freeman arrived in Los Angeles and grown even stronger under the more favorable baserunning environment of 2023

It does not emerge from raw speed.

This was, as you might guess, the first 20-steal season of Freeman's career. For his entire tenure in Atlanta, Freeman averaged five stolen bases a year. And why would he steal? He's a slugging, middle-of-the-order first baseman, not a speedster. And he's been the same non-speedster forever.

Freeman's sprint speed by season, Statcast era
2015: 25.4 ft/sec
2016: 26.3 ft/sec
2017: 26.5 ft/sec
2018: 26.7 ft/sec
2019: 26.5 ft/sec
2020: 26.4 ft/sec
2021: 27.0 ft/sec
2022: 26.9 ft/sec
2023: 26.7 ft/sec
League average: 27 ft/sec

But now, Freeman has 36 stolen bases in his two seasons with the Dodgers -- a then-career-high 13 in 2022 followed by the new-career-high 23 in 2023.

Oh, and he's only been caught one time all year … and that was on his very first attempt, all the way back on April 1. He's stolen 23 bases in a row since.

"I need a 1.5 or higher. I need a lot of help," Freeman joked, referring to the pitcher's time to the plate that he requires to pull off a stolen base. "But I try to pick the right situations. I'm not just gonna run to run. If the stolen base doesn't matter in that situation, I'm not just gonna steal."

He scoffed as he said that, at the very idea of running gratuitously just to pad your stats. Then he reiterated his philosophy: "But 90 feet -- I value it very much. So if they're gonna give it to me, I'm gonna take it."

Still, how does the 34-year-old Freeman successfully pull that off?

Freeman might not have speed, but what he does have, first and foremost, is a huge amount of opportunities to run. That's because, well, he's on base so much. In each of his last five full seasons, Freeman has had over 300 stolen-base opportunities (in other words, he's on base and the base in front of him is open). He's among the league leaders every year.

Most SB opportunities, 2023

1. Nico Hoerner: 345
2. Freddie Freeman: 343
3. Steven Kwan: 337
4. Ronald Acu?a Jr.: 336
5. Juan Soto: 326
6. Marcus Semien: 325
7. Adley Rutschman: 320
8. Nathaniel Lowe: 319
9. Yandy Díaz: 311
10. Mookie Betts / Brandon Nimmo: 310

And in 2023, with the pickoff limits for pitchers, it's easier to take advantage of stolen-base opportunities than it ever was before. Especially if you're as studious as Freeman. He works with first-base coach Clayton McCullough to figure out pitchers' cues.

"Me, Clayton and the staff here do a really good job of picking up pitchers and what they do: presets, if they do something over and over again, trying to find patterns," Freeman said.

It could be a head bob. It could be a deep breath. Freeman wants to be able to identify instantly when the pitcher's body language is telling him to run.

"There's all sorts of things pitchers do," Freeman said. "Your subconscious can commit some crazy things up on the mound when you're trying to make a good pitch. We're trying to look for those little things that tip off that you're going to the plate, and I try to jump those."

Of course, not every hitter who creates stolen-base opportunities for himself will turn those into steals. If you look at the 14 players who had 300-plus opportunities this season, some ran wild, like Acu?a (73 stolen bases) and Hoerner (43 stolen bases), but others like Rutschman and Lowe (one steal each) or Díaz (zero) barely ran at all.

Freeman found a nice middle ground between the most aggressive burners and the mostly stationary sluggers. His 2023 season is reminiscent of what some other savvy power-hitting first basemen have done before him, like when Paul Goldschmidt averaged 31 homers and 24 steals from 2015-17.

Freeman's baserunning smarts and preparation are the real keys. They've let him overcome his lack of top-tier speed to steal successfully 96% of the time. Incredibly, among the players who stole 20-plus bases this season, only Trea Turner (a perfect 30-for-30) had a higher stolen-base success rate than Freeman.

Freeman gets excellent jumps when he does decide to steal. His average sprint speed when stealing this season was only 26 ft/sec, compared to the league average sprint speed of 27.6 ft/sec on steal attempts. But his average primary lead was 11.8 feet, well above the league average of 11.3 feet. And his secondary lead, which reflects the jump he's gotten by the time the pitcher releases the pitch, was 23.5 feet, over a foot longer than the league average lead distance of 22.2 feet.

Here are four examples of how Freeman gets the jump on the other team:

1) He steals off the most predictable pitchers

FanGraphs' Esteban Rivera did an excellent job in August detailing some of Freeman's techniques, which include stealing off lefty relievers who tend to have predictable deliveries.

And indeed, Freeman does love getting the jump on a lefty reliever. He had five steals off lefty relievers this season, tied for third-most of any player -- and, more generally, 10 steals against left-handers overall and 14 steals off relief pitchers.

Here's the Statcast 3D tracking for a Freeman steal where he takes off on first move against Génesis Cabrera in the eighth inning, going from a primary lead of 10.6 feet to a secondary lead of 26.7 feet. Cardinals catcher Andrew Knizner didn't even bother throwing down.

2) He steals off the slowest pitchers

On Aug. 22, Freeman was on first base with Noah Syndergaard on the mound. Syndergaard is notoriously one of the worst pitchers at controlling the run game -- this season, he allowed 34 stolen bases with only a single caught stealing -- so Freeman could steal second with ease. He got a huge jump off Syndergaard: Freeman's secondary lead was 26.8 feet.

3) He steals off the slowest catchers

Major Leaguers will often tell you that you steal off the pitcher, not the catcher, but the catcher plays a significant part, too, of course. It's a lot harder to steal off someone like J.T. Realmuto.

But if the catcher is exceptionally slow to second base? Freeman will run. The Nationals' Keibert Ruiz was the worst throwing catcher of 2023 by Statcast's Caught Stealing Above Average; on May 31, Freeman stole on him, beating Ruiz's slow 2.15 second pop time (MLB average is 2.00 seconds) and soft 73.1 mph throw.

4) He steals when the defense gives it to him

There are certain plays where a catcher is just less likely to throw down to second, like a first-and-third situation with an aggressive speedster on third. If the catcher throws down, the runner will take off for home, so the catcher will eat it rather than risk giving up a run.

Having Mookie Betts on base in front of him so often helps Freeman capitalize on those moments, even against the top throwing catchers. Here he is taking second base against quick-draw Giants rookie Patrick Bailey on Sept. 23, for his 23rd and final steal of the regular season, as Betts lurks off third base.

Now, Freeman will face a challenge stealing in the NLDS. D-backs catcher Gabriel Moreno was the best catcher in the Majors at controlling the run game this year -- and he was the one who caught Freeman on his lone caught stealing of the season. But he could impact the series with his baserunning anyway.

That's because Freeman's baserunning value isn't limited to stolen bases. For example: He ranked in the 86th percentile of MLB this season in Statcast's baserunning value metric, which only looks at runners' ability to take extra bases against opposing fielders, not their steals.

Or, if you want one all-encompassing number that includes both basestealing and baserunning during a play, Freeman ranks 15th among all MLB players in FanGraphs' Baserunning Runs stat over his two seasons with the Dodgers, with +10.4 runs created.

It all falls under the same umbrella. Freeman's basestealing and taking extra bases is all reflective of the same part of his game: Seize 90 feet whenever you can. That's how you get Freddie Freeman, 20-20 club member.

"I wouldn't consider it being a base-stealer. I just consider it trying to be a good base-_runner_," Freeman said. "It's just trying to be the best all-around baseball player I can be."