Will Paredes' pull power play at Wrigley?

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CHICAGO – Before Isaac Paredes exited Tropicana Field earlier this week and headed to join the Cubs, he posted a photo of Tampa Bay’s field with the caption, “Se extra?ará el left field.”

Translation: Left field will be missed.

During the past three seasons with the Rays, Paredes blossomed into a plus power threat, and he made his first All-Star team this season. The consistency found within Paredes’ offensive profile – he pairs his power with upper-tier contact ability and a low strikeout rate – convinced the Cubs to target him as a middle-of-the-order addition at this year’s Trade Deadline.

The power that Paredes unlocked under the Rays’ watch has come nearly exclusively to the pull side, explaining his fond farewell message to left field at The Trop. In the past three years, no right-handed hitter has pulled more home runs than Paredes (67), who has exactly zero blasts to center or right in his career.

The question now is: How will that approach work in Wrigley Field?

“We looked carefully to see how that would play,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. “Yes, he does have a really pull-heavy approach, which I think is why some of his expected stats are lower, because he doesn’t spray the ball a lot. But that’s the approach he adopted in Tampa [Bay] and it served him really well with their ballpark.

“But all the studies said it would translate well to Wrigley Field.”

The difference between slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage is one broad-strokes way to look at this area. For example, per Statcast, the overall slugging percentage (SLG) at Wrigley Field this season has been .361, compared to a .383 expected slugging percentage (xSLG). That’s a difference of -.022, which is tied for the fifth lowest among the 30 MLB venues in 2024. Tropicana Field (-.018) is closer to the MLB mean.

That is only scratching the surface, especially because it includes all batted-ball types and includes different types of hitters. Let’s peel back a few more layers to get closer to the Paredes profile of batters.

Right-handed hitters
Wrigley Field: -.027
Tropicana Field -.013

RHH to pull side
Wrigley Field: .064
Tropicana Field: .143

RHH to pull side (fly balls)
Wrigley Field: .271
Tropicana Field: .615

All of the above stats are through Thursday’s action

The ballpark closest to the Rays’ home dome in those last two categories is Coors Field, where hitters thrive in the elevated environment. Righty hitters have a .143 difference between SLG and xSLG when pulling the ball at Coors, and that number gets a boost to .635 when it is pulled via fly ball. It is easy to see why Paredes said he will miss left field in St. Petersburg.

“When I started hitting my first couple home runs, I just kind of realized that was my preferred side – the left side,” Paredes said via translator. “In terms of Wrigley, I’ve heard nothing but great things about it. It’s a great ballpark to hit in, so I’m just going to go out there and just focus on hitting and let the home runs just come themselves.”

Depending on the wind pattern of the day, Wrigley Field can be turned from friend to foe in a hurry for righty power hitters. The most extreme example this season came on June 14, when Patrick Wisdom looked to have a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning against the Cardinals. Per Statcast3D, the wind knocked it down 62 feet, morphing a would-be no-doubter into a flyout on the warning track.

“It's telling him not to change his style of hitting,” Wisdom said. “That’s what got him this far and made him an All-Star. When you get to a place like Wrigley, the wind can definitely affect outcomes of the ball, for sure. But I think over the long course of a season, if you can just kind of stay with what you do, I think you'll be OK.

“There will be ones like the one that was going to put us ahead against the Cardinals. It's hard to swallow, because you did it all right. And it wasn't even like, 'Wow, he made a great play.' Like, no one should have made a play on that. You just tell him to kind of understand what the wind is doing.

“Hitting is hard enough as it is, but I think you just kind of have to – not adapt, not adjust – but just be aware of it. And that big scoreboard in left-center [field], it definitely helps. If you can get it to the scoreboard, you’ll be alright.”