Could deGrom have a Sale-like resurgence in 2025?

Chris Sale’s resurgent 2024 season resulted in a Cy Young Award after years of injury problems. Could Jacob deGrom follow that blueprint in 2025?

Set to enter his third season with the Rangers, deGrom has thrown a grand total of 41 innings with Texas due to 2023 Tommy John surgery. Now 36 years old (set to turn 37 in June), deGrom is six years removed from his last full season, when he took home his second consecutive NL Cy Young Award for the Mets.

While many factors are working against deGrom -- most notably age and recent injury history -- we shouldn’t count out a Sale-like resurgence. Let’s explore.

The Sale trajectory

The comparison to Sale, who won his long-awaited first Cy in his first season with the Braves, is appropriate and provides optimism for deGrom potentially returning to form.

It’s easy to discount a possible bounceback for the Rangers right-hander, but then again, take a look at how deGrom compares to Sale at the same point last year.

Sale in 2024: Age-35 season, 31 starts over the past four seasons and six years removed from his last full, effective season (2018)

deGrom in 2025: Age-37 season, 35 starts over the past four seasons and six years removed from his last full, effective season (2019)

To be clear, there is probably more risk for deGrom. The righty is a bit older, and while Sale set up his 2024 Cy season by throwing more than 100 innings in 2023, deGrom hasn’t cleared the 50-inning mark since 2022 and the 100-inning mark since 2019. (To be fair, he was healthy in 2020, but the season was shortened due to the pandemic.)

Furthermore, deGrom is the rare two-time Tommy John surgery recipient, one who is trying to mount a comeback to full-time stardom in his late 30s.

Optimistic projections

Take a look at the 2025 Steamer projections available at FanGraphs, and most names at the top of the pitching leaderboard won’t surprise you. Young phenom Paul Skenes is projected for an MLB-leading 5.8 Wins Above Replacement, while Tarik Skubal (5.0), Garrett Crochet (4.8) and Zack Wheeler (4.6) are also in the top five.

Projected for the second-most WAR (5.1) is deGrom. That would represent the third-highest WAR deGrom has produced in a season, trailing only the 9.0 mark he had in 2018 and the 6.9 figure in ‘19, when the right-hander took home his consecutive Cy Youngs.

Of course, that 5.1 figure is projected across 26 starts and 152 innings, which deGrom has not reached since 2019. In fact, deGrom has not even made 26 starts and reached 152 innings combined dating back to the 2022 season. (The ZiPS projections, also at FanGraphs, paint a much less rosy picture, mostly due to playing time, pegging deGrom at just 12 starts, roughly 52 innings and 1.1 WAR.)

Let’s pretend that deGrom does return to full health in 2025, however. If that’s the case, the optimistic Steamer projections seem appropriate. From 2021-24, deGrom essentially accumulated a full season’s worth of work, throwing 197 1/3 innings across 35 starts.

Among starters who threw at least 150 innings during that time, deGrom was the top starter by practically any measure you look at. deGrom paced all qualifying starters in that group in ERA (2.01), strikeout rate (42.5 percent), WHIP (0.68), strikeout-minus-walk percentage (39.2 percent), FIP (1.63) and expected FIP (1.76).

Doing more with less

deGrom returned to a Major League mound for the first time in more than 16 months last September and was his typically excellent self, albeit in a tiny sample. In three starts across 10 2/3 innings -- the Rangers limited his innings upon return -- deGrom allowed two runs while striking out 14 and walking just one batter.

“The goal was to get out there and make a few starts. We were able to do that. Everything felt good and I felt like stuff was getting better each time,” deGrom told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry after his final start. “That was the goal, and we were able to accomplish that. That's the last one for me this year, and I’m going into the offseason feeling good about it, and get ready for next year.”

deGrom flashed top-end stuff, although it’s worth pointing out that his 97.3 mph average fastball velocity was 1.4 mph slower than his 98.7 mph heater in 2023. His slider, too, came in at 90.0 mph, compared to a 91.8 mph offering in ‘23. This might be a good thing for deGrom.

A complaint we often heard about deGrom from 2021-24 was that he was unable to stay healthy because he was seemingly going 100% on every single pitch. The list of starting pitchers who can consistently throw as hard as deGrom was and remain a full-time starting pitcher is pretty limited. (Even in 2024, just five other starters had an average fastball velocity as high or higher than deGrom’s, and none was older than 25.)

Working in deGrom’s favor is he’s already proven he can dominate with a fastball more in the 96-98 mph range, rather than 98-100. When deGrom took home his first Cy Young Award in 2018, his average fastball was 96.0 mph. deGrom averaged 96.9 mph on the heater when he won the award again in ‘19.

Maybe deGrom’s velocity was lower last September as he slowly returned from a second major arm surgery. Perhaps, the veteran right-hander also recognized that he could still have success in a lower velocity bracket, albeit a velocity that is still better than most starters.

Going for a third Cy Young Award

In Sale’s case, his rebound to the pitching elite finally earned him the Cy Young Award that somehow eluded him during his prime. That’s not the situation for deGrom, who already finds himself in pretty rare company with multiple Cy Youngs. He’s just one of 22 pitchers who can say that.

So what’s at stake? With a third award, deGrom would enter rarified territory and take a big step toward cementing his legacy in the game.

The only other pitchers with three or more Cy Young Awards are Roger Clemens (7), Randy Johnson (5), Greg Maddux (4), Steve Carlton (4), Justin Verlander (3), Clayton Kershaw (3), Max Scherzer (3), Pedro Martinez (3), Jim Palmer (3), Tom Seaver (3) and Sandy Koufax (3).

That’s good company to be in, as every pitcher outside of Clemens (ties to performance-enhancing drugs) is either in the Hall of Fame or is still active and almost certainly will be elected in the future. Considering how light deGrom’s counting stats will be compared to other Hall of Famers, being a part of this club could do wonders for his future case for Cooperstown.

To join that group, deGrom doesn’t just need to put together a full season -- he also has to overcome some stiff competition.

Skubal took home unanimous honors last year after winning the American League’s pitching Triple Crown (leading in ERA, wins and strikeouts). He’s just 28 years old and is in the conversation for best starters in baseball. It’s not just the Tigers’ ace, though. Crochet could be a real candidate in his first year in Boston if he can build upon his 146 excellent innings with the White Sox last season.

Beyond those two left-handed aces, there are plenty of other high-quality starters in the AL, including Max Fried, Cole Ragans, Pablo López, Framber Valdez, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby.

There are enough reasons to be skeptical that deGrom can win a third Cy Young Award and join a legendary group. Then again, few expected Sale to return the way he did for the Braves in 2024. If deGrom follows in Sale’s footsteps, the Rangers’ starter could make for one of the most interesting stories of the 2025 season -- and help vault the 2023 World Series champs back toward October.

“The goal is to get out there as many times as I can,” deGrom told MLB.com at Rangers Fan Fest last month. “I'm sure we'd have to be smart with it. We don't want to jump to 200-and-something innings, but I'd like to be able to go out there and make 30 [starts]. That's the goal. You sign here to pitch. I haven't been able to do that. So the goal is to go out there and make as many starts as I can to help contribute.”