Experts predict favorites, dark horses in Juan Soto sweepstakes

We don’t need to wait for the offseason to arrive to start talking about what is sure to be the hottest topic of the winter: Which team will land superstar slugger and impending free agent Juan Soto?

MLB.com gathered for a roundtable to discuss the possibilities:

Alyson Footer, editor/moderator: One of the most intriguing storylines of the upcoming offseason is already in full swing -- where will Juan Soto sign? I don’t think there was any doubt that Soto was in for a big year, partly because it’s his walk year and partly because he’s simply one of the most talented players of his generation.

Let’s start with this -- everyone list four teams that they think could be “front-runners” and rank them from most likely to least.

Mark Feinsand, senior national reporter:

Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Giants.

Sarah Langs, researcher/analyst:

Same -- Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Giants.

Anthony DiComo, Mets beat reporter:

Yankees, Giants, Mets, Nationals.

Footer: The Nationals angle is fascinating. At first glance, it would seem like a longshot that he’d return to his original team. But then you really look at the way the Nats are set up, and it appears they’re entering another window of winning. That would seem enticing to Soto, who loved his time there and has, at least publicly, had only nice things to say about the Nats franchise. Is there anything there? What is the best argument in their favor?

Feinsand: The Yankees and Mets are obvious. I think this will be a two-team race, but there’s already been some Nationals buzz, which makes sense. Washington has a solid young core to build around and has a lot of money coming off the books. I don’t think the Dodgers will be in on Soto after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year, but the Giants are still looking to reel in that big fish they have been seeking for two years, so I expect them to enter this fray.

Soto and the Yankees visited D.C. recently, and it was a love fest for him. He still loves it there and the fan base still loves him. And he’d make a heck of a lot more money now than he would have if he had accepted that $440 million deal a few years ago.

Langs: The Nationals have done a fabulous job rebuilding, in part with the players they got from the Soto trade. I love the idea of Soto being able to play for a franchise that he helped rebuild. I do assume the New York teams will be the two front-runners, but everything else about his relationship with D.C. makes sense.

Feinsand: And with James Wood, Dylan Crews and CJ Abrams under cost control for the next handful of years, there’s an inexpensive core to put around him.

DiComo: Nostalgia is big business these days, and the Nationals can sell that to Soto in a way that no other franchise can. Of course, generational wealth is going to be more important to Soto than any sort of nostalgia, so the Nats have to be willing to play ball at a level they've never gone to before for free agents. But if they are, the idea of bringing Soto back to the place he grew up as a baseball player and won a World Series, right at a time when some of the best prospects in baseball could be blossoming around him? That's poetry.

Feinsand: Also, I have to assume that Soto will have an opt-out in his contract and test free agency again in four years, so unless something goes horrifically wrong, you’re probably looking at a four-year deal worth about $200 million to $240 million.

Langs: We just had the most unique free agent in history last offseason with Ohtani, and in many ways, Soto is No. 2 on that list. No player as good as him has ever changed teams twice at such a young age, and we are potentially talking about a fourth team now. Even if he returns to D.C. or stays with the Yankees, this is unlike any other free agent that any front office has seen in terms of a future HOFer who is not even 26 years old until October.

Footer: The Yankees probably have the most pressure on them, because, obviously, they currently employ Soto, and also because it’s fair to say the Yankees would be in a much worse position in the standings without Soto in their lineup. They don’t just want him, they need him. How concerned should they be that they’ll be outbid, or in the case of the Nats, out-nostalgia-ed?

Feinsand: Any time you’re potentially in a bidding war against Mets owner Steve Cohen, there’s a reason to be worried.

Soto’s deal is likely going to be worth more than Ohtani’s -- at least in present-day value -- and nobody has more money than the Mets do. It isn’t Hal Steinbrenner’s way to get into a huge bidding war.

Langs: I think the most powerful asset at the Yankees' disposal, aside from the obvious deep pockets, is the experience he has had in a Yankees uniform. When you go to a game at the Stadium, the entire right-field crowd is just demonstrating for nine innings and Soto is giving it right back. The energy is undeniable, and I think the experience of being a Yankee will be very powerful.

Feinsand: I have to think Soto enjoys hitting next to Aaron Judge, too. If any part of the equation is his legacy, the best place for him to cement that is with Judge in the Bronx.

That said, does any part of Soto feel like he will always be overshadowed in the Bronx by Judge? Perhaps he wants his “own team” to lead, which is something he won’t have as long as Judge is playing.

DiComo: They don't need to be concerned, because if they want to outbid anyone, they're the Yankees. They can. And they have home-field advantage. But the Yankees do need to be willing to go to that level after years of (relative) financial restraint. Over the past half-decade, they went all-in on Aaron Judge, who was born and bred in their organization and coming off a record season, and for Gerrit Cole, whom they considered a generational ace. Soto does seem like the type of player for which the Yankees would do something similar, but if they don't offer absolute top dollar, you know somebody else out there (the Mets? the Giants? the Dodgers?) with deep pockets will.

Feinsand: Let’s say the Yankees offer Soto 10 years and $500 million -- which, based on my conversations around the league, seems to be the expected floor -- and the Mets come back at $550 million, will Hal Steinbrenner go there? That’s almost $200 million more than they gave Judge.

The “financial restraint” Tony mentioned has still led to $250 million payrolls on an annual basis. Remember the days when Hal talked about not needing a $200 million payroll to win? Will he go to $300 million?

Footer: Soto definitely seems to enjoy playing in New York, which is a plus for the Yankees -- and also potentially for the Mets. What would the Mets' best "pitch" be to Soto, other than money? Can Soto look at how the Mets are set up in the next several years and realistically believe he'll mostly be on a contender?

Langs: Being on the Mets does allow him to be The Guy, as there is no Aaron Judge there. And it is still New York. Both of which could be pluses, depending on what he is looking for.

Feinsand: The Mets certainly have a nice foundation and some excellent players to surround Soto. And they won’t have to sell the city. Maybe he likes NL cities better? Maybe they can sell him on him being the No. 1 guy there, which as I mentioned before, won’t ever be the case with Judge and the Yankees. But in the end, the biggest thing the Mets can sell Soto on is a bigger paycheck. And I have to think that will carry a lot of weight with Soto and Scott Boras.

DiComo: Frankly, the Mets thought that by the time they reached the 2024-25 offseason, their pitch would be better. Unfortunately for them, their farm system has not produced fruit the way they had hoped, and there are no guarantees the Mets will be competitive in '25. They're going to need to rebuild their rotation again this offseason, construct a new bullpen almost from scratch and either pay Pete Alonso or find his replacement. This is a team with a ton of question marks, meaning their pitch to Soto really may come down to, "Hey, we're going to keep throwing money at this thing every year and eventually, something will stick.” It also doesn't hurt that Steve Cohen and Scott Boras have an extremely cozy relationship.

Langs: It is worth wondering what a Yankees lineup with Soto next year would look like. If any sort of financial restraint is on the radar, signing him could mean a lineup with Soto, Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and a handful of much younger/unproven players. But again, that could be true on any team depending how they are set up.

Feinsand: That’s where the Nats have an advantage. Soto knows he’ll be with Wood, Crews and Abrams at a minimum, and those guys don’t cost anything yet and won’t for at least a few years.

With the Yankees, Soto is looking at Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe and …?

And Soto and Judge will cost about $85 million between them. If Cole sticks around [he can opt out of his current deal after the season], now you’re talking about $120 million for those three. Yeesh.

Footer: Of the four teams mentioned, it seems the Giants have the worst chance to sign Soto. Besides having bid on big names in the past (Carlos Correa, Judge), is there any other reason why we think they might pose a threat to the other suitors? Honestly, it just doesn't seem like there's a lot of direction regarding the on-field product.

Feinsand: I have the Giants as a distant fourth. Their park isn’t particularly hitter-friendly, their core isn’t particularly attractive and I don’t know if Soto wants to go to the West Coast. But they seem to get involved in a lot of big free agents, so I expect they will on this one, too. But if Soto signs anywhere besides the Bronx, Queens or D.C., I will be pretty surprised.

DiComo: For me, the Giants are a factor because they're motivated to be a factor. They have tried for years to lure an impact bat to San Francisco, and it just hasn't worked out for them. They clearly are willing to spend money to make it happen. But yeah, it's probably going to require them to outbid the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies and whoever else, which is no small task. Top-tier sluggers don't like the idea of playing in that ballpark. Just this past offseason, J.D. Martinez said he turned down more money from the Giants because he feared a big ballpark like that effectively ending his career. It's a challenge for San Francisco to navigate with any free-agent hitter.

Footer: If you google “where will Soto land?” you’ll find nearly identical headlines, with a different team mentioned in each. “Phillies mentioned among top suitors for Juan Soto"; “Cubs mentioned among top suitors for Juan Soto"; “Red Sox mentioned among top suitors for Juan Soto.” It’s comical. But also probably true. We’ve only mentioned Yankees, Mets, Giants and Nats so far. What about some of the others?

Feinsand: I don’t see the Cubs or Red Sox going big enough to sign Soto. If Boston ownership was willing to pay that kind of money, Mookie Betts would still be there. They just gave Rafael Devers a big bag of money, so I don’t see them doing the same with Soto. Ditto with the Cubs, who aren’t typically big-game hunters to this level. The Dodgers are the only other team I can see making a play for him, because they’re the Dodgers and you can never count them out.

DiComo: I'll believe the Red Sox ponying up for a premium free agent when I see it. They just don't shop in those aisles anymore. The Cubs seem a bit more realistic, but only slightly. The Phillies, though -- I won't count them out on anyone these days. You just know Bryce Harper is going to make his best pitch. I do wonder when the Phillies will run out of money to spend, but it hasn't happened yet. In that sense, the Phillies have become similar to the Dodgers. I'll never count them out until a player signs elsewhere.

Langs: I love the idea of Philly. I have no idea how realistic it is, but the idea of Soto/Harper together again and this time winning together would be amazing. Citizens Bank Park is very hitter-friendly. Consider this: Soto has 37 homers right now. If he played all his games (obviously not realistic but bear with me) there, he would have 45 based on all fly balls he has hit this year.

Feinsand: The Phillies already have some huge contracts with Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. I know Dave Dombrowski loves stars, but I don’t see ownership going there when their team is already stacked.

Soto and Harper together? Imagine the damage they could do. Oh, wait …

Footer: Let's wrap with everyone proposing a mystery team -- that one dark horse who could swoop in and make a splash. Cannot be Yankees, Mets, Nats or Giants. Go!

Langs: I will go Phillies for the reasons I stated above, and because I feel like the Phanatic would have a great reaction after "rooting against him" since 2018.

Feinsand: I’ll go with the Orioles, just because that would be so much fun. I don’t think there’s any chance it happens, but think of what that lineup would look like if they did! Realistically, outside of those four, the Dodgers are the only other team I could see making a realistic run at Soto.

DiComo: I'll go Dodgers. You don't hear as much buzz about them as the Yankees and Mets regarding Soto, but they are the Dodgers. This is what they do: acquire big-name stars.