Soto-Harper reunion? Here's what it'd take

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Who wouldn’t want Juan Soto in the Phillies’ lineup for the next 10-15 years?

Everybody in Philly does, of course. But no matter how hard you squint, it’s difficult to see him in red pinstripes.

Why? Let’s start with this: Soto is likely to sign with the highest bidder, and other teams are better positioned to pay him what he wants.

“We’re going to be available to every team,” Soto told reporters after the World Series. “I feel like every team has the same opportunity. I don’t want to say anybody has the advantage because, at the end of the day, we’re going to look at what we have and how much they want me.”

It sure doesn’t sound like Soto will take any discounts to reunite with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and hitting coach Kevin Long in Philadelphia.

• Soto's top suitors, contract projections, comps & more

Soto is projected to get anywhere from $500 million to $600 million or more in his next contract. There is no question that he and agent Scott Boras want to set a record. Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers last offseason. It’s the most guaranteed money in baseball history, although more than 97 percent of the cash is deferred. Because of that, the average annual value of the deal is around $46 million for luxury tax purposes, which is the highest AAV for a player in baseball history.

The Yankees and Mets could push Soto toward Ohtani’s numbers, if they choose.

The Phillies? Well, managing partner John Middleton announced last week that the Phillies added three new members to the ownership group. The new owners will inject capital to the organization to pay down COVID-19 pandemic debt, pursue an expansive new complex in Clearwater, Fla., make enhancements to Citizens Bank Park and more. Told that fans will want to know if a more robust ownership group will allow the organization to push a top-five payroll even higher, Middleton said, “It’s hard to go much crazier with the payroll.”

Cot’s Contracts projects the Phillies’ 2025 payroll to be $262 million in salaries, plus another $19 million in benefits, which figures into the competitive balance tax.

That’s at least $281 million without re-signing Jeff Hoffman or Carlos Estévez or acquiring any other players via trade or free agency.

Because the Phillies have paid the luxury tax three consecutive years, they’ll be charged a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent in the first luxury tax tier ($241 million), 62 percent in the second tier ($261 million), 92.5 percent in the third tier ($281 million) and 110 percent in the fourth tier ($301 million).

Let’s say Soto only gets a $41 million AAV, which is probably at least $6 million short of what Soto and Boras want.

If he signs with the Phillies for a $41 million AAV, it would push their 2025 payroll to at least $322 million. They would pay at least $64 million in CBT penalties, pushing their payroll commitment to more than $386 million. Throw in another $20 million to bolster the bullpen and rotation, and the total number jumps to more than $428 million.

Perhaps that’s why Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said last month: “I don’t think we need to have more star players. We have as many stars as about anybody in baseball. So, I don’t think necessarily that you need to add more. John is very accommodating and giving, but you're also in a position where you're still working with a payroll.”

Now, could Middleton open his wallet and tell Dombrowski, “You know what? The heck with it. Let’s just go for it?”

Sure. He said something similar last fall when Dombrowski pressed him to take a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Phillies offered Yamamoto at least $300 million, but they fell short to the Dodgers.

The Phils could try to shed payroll by trading highly valued arbitration-eligible players, top prospects and veterans in the final years of their deals. It would give the Phillies financial wiggle room, but it also would weaken them in other areas.

“If you look at the last three years, we’ve been among the two or three most successful teams in baseball,” Middleton said. “You can’t have that record over three years and not be a tweak or two away. If all our best players were 37 years old, that would be different. They’re not.”

The Phillies won the World Series in 2008, lost the World Series in '09, lost the NL Championship Series in '10 and lost the NL Division Series in '11, despite winning more regular-season games from year to year.

This group lost the World Series in 2022, lost the NLCS in '23 and lost in the NLDS in '24, despite winning more regular-season games from year to year. But perhaps this current group is more like the 1976-80 Phillies than the 2007-11 Phillies. Those Phillies lost three consecutive NLCS from 1976-78 and missed the postseason completely in '79, despite acquiring Pete Rose in the offseason.

They won the World Series in 1980.

“Look at the Dodgers,” Middleton said. “They got knocked out in the first round the last [two] years, and they won this year.”

The Phillies think they can be like the Dodgers. Still, they will be connected to Soto until he signs because they are one of the game’s biggest spenders.

Just don’t bet on it happening.