Analyzing the Arraez trade from all sides

It's only May, but the first blockbuster trade of the 2024 season is already in the books.

The Padres have acquired two-time batting champ Luis Arraez and cash from the Marlins in exchange for reliever Woo-Suk Go and three prospects.

It's a move that bolsters the top of the Padres' order while helping the Marlins stock their talent pipeline with an eye toward the future.

TRADE DETAILS
Padres receive: Luis Arraez, cash
Marlins receive: RHP Woo-Suk Go, OF Dillon Head, OF Jakob Marsee, 1B/OF Nathan Martorella

Here is a breakdown of this intriguing exchange from all angles, via MLB.com experts:

Why it makes sense for the Padres
Via MLB.com's Michael Reynolds

The 27-year-old Arraez led the AL with a .316 average in 2022, then led the Majors with a .354 mark last season to become the second player to win a batting title in consecutive seasons for different teams, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Nobody has done it for three teams in three seasons. Arraez is currently batting .299.

Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are second to none. Since he debuted in 2019, he has recorded MLB’s only three seasons in which a player took at least 500 swings and had a whiff rate lower than 8%. That fits right in with the Padres’ “get ‘em on and get ‘em in” philosophy, mixing on-base skills with slug.

“The guy is probably the closest to Tony Gwynn that there is right now," Fernando Tatis Jr. said, "so I’m looking forward to seeing him in the lineup." More >

Why it makes sense for the Marlins
Via MLB.com's Cole Jacobson and Alex Espinoza

The move certainly might signal the beginning of further moves after their 9-24 start -- tied for their second worst through 33 games in franchise history, only ahead of an 8-25 start in 1995. Last year’s Marlins squad had the lowest run differential of any playoff team in MLB history, and that good luck has swung harshly in the other direction this season. More >

Prospect profiles
Via MLB Pipeline

OF Dillon Head (No. 6 on Padres' Top 30; No. 5 on Marlins' Top 30)
Age: 19 in 2024
Height: 6’ 0” / Weight: 185 lbs.
Bats: L / Throws: L
MLB ETA: 2027

Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 80 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

2023 stats
Rookie: .294/.413/.471, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, 11 BB/9 SO (63 PA)
Single-A: .241/.312/.333, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 4 BB/10 SO (61 PA)

Head, a first-round pick in 2023, exhibited one of the most exciting combos of speed and pure hitting ability among prep bats in the Draft. The outfielder instantly became one of the fastest runners in the Minors with elite speed he’s able to use all over the diamond. Those wheels make him an impressive defender in center with gap-to-gap coverage, and he’s able to gather good momentum to generate above-average arm strength when he needs a cannon. Head should be a stolen-base threat too, and he can also turn infield grounders into base knocks with the way he fires out of the left-handed batter’s box. More >

OF Jakob Marsee (No. 9 on Padres' Top 30; No. 10 on Marlins' Top 30)
Age: 22 in 2024
Height: 6’ 0” / Weight: 180 lbs.
Bats: L / Throws: L
MLB ETA: 2025

Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45

2023 stats
High-A: .273/.413/.425, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 41 SB, 87 BB/82 SO (499 PA)
Double-A: .286/.412/.446, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 5 SB, 11 BB/15 SO (69 PA)
Arizona Fall League: .391/.509/.707, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 16 SB, 21 BB/25 SO (118 PA)

Marsee's hitting ability and plate discipline got him drafted in 2022's sixth round out of Central Michigan by the Padres. He led San Diego farmhands with 98 walks and a .413 on-base percentage while reaching Double-A in his first full pro season before winning MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League. Teams began asking for him in trades by mid-2023. Marsee thrives on making opposing pitchers throw strikes. He doesn’t chase much at all, and when he does swing out of a coiled left-handed stance, it’s with intent to make contact. More >

1B/OF Nathan Martorella (No. 13 on Padres' Top 30; No. 11 on Marlins' Top 30)
Age: 23 in 2024
Height: 6’ 0” / Weight: 224 lbs.
Bats: L / Throws: L
MLB ETA: 2025

Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

2023 stats
High-A: .259/.371/.450, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 5 SB, 73 BB/87 SO (483 PA)
Double-A: .236/.313/.382, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 9 BB/14 SO (99 PA)
Arizona Fall League: .237/.338/.339, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 7 BB/14 SO (68 PA)

Martorella used a breakout final season at California, where he hit .333 with a career-best 11 homers, to propel himself to the Padres in the fifth round of the 2022 Draft. He slashed .255/.361/.437 with 19 homers and a 123 wRC+ over 135 games between High-A and Double-A in his first full pro season and ended the campaign with more experience in the Arizona Fall League. Martorella led all San Diego farmhands with 582 plate appearances in 2023, impressing with his ability and willingness to stick in the lineup. His managers and coaches wanted him playing every day because of his inclination to work counts, success against pitchers from both sides and strength to shoot for at least average in-game power. More >

Trade Deadline implications
Via executive reporter Mark Feinsand

Miami’s 9-25 start had the Marlins on an obvious path to become sellers before the Trade Deadline, but the Arraez deal could kick-start a pre-Memorial Day fire sale.

The Marlins don't have a ton of veterans or expiring contracts to move, but impending free agents such as Josh Bell (earning $16.5 million this season), Tanner Scott (earning $5.7 million this season) and Tim Anderson (earning $5 million this season) could be traded at some point.

For the Padres, the Arraez move signals that San Diego could become an active buyer this summer, though that is never a surprise given general manager A.J. Preller's history.

Diving deep
Via analyst Mike Petriello

It may not seem like the Padres are filling a huge and obvious need here; after all, their 4.9 runs per game were seventh-best in the Majors entering Saturday, and there's not a clear opening at the two defensive spots he plays, first and second base. It’s not even like strikeouts are a problem on this club – only six teams have lower strikeout rates. If it seems like adding pitching help would be a higher priority, we agree.

Then again, there's not exactly top-flight starting pitching available in the first week of May, and we know they've had their eye on Arraez for a while, as they reportedly tried to trade for him over the winter. What Arraez brings is some further lefty balance to a mostly righty lineup, because the team's other lefty bats are either 21 years old (Jackson Merrill) or were not very good last year (Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth). While Arraez is a very poor fielder (his minus-21 Outs Above Average over the past two seasons are the weakest of any infielder), there's plenty of DH time available, and in fact is probably his best fit on this roster. He's projected to add something like two wins the rest of the way, which isn’t really needle-moving, yet could also be the difference between grabbing a Wild Card spot or just missing out.

We often talk about how low-power, high-contact hitters are inconsistent, simply because their production relies so heavily on batted balls finding grass, which carries with it an aspect of luck. (Look no further than the ups-and-downs of similar-type hitters Steven Kwan and Jeff McNeil over the past few seasons.) But six seasons into his career, Arraez appears to be the outlier, a truly special bat-to-ball hitter who is still productive when the hits aren't falling and absolutely elite when he is. The "21st century Tony Gwynn" comparisons will get truly overcooked now that he’s wearing brown-and-gold, but know that they were already true.

Stat to know
Via MLB.com research staff

63: That's the number of games with three or more hits that Arraez had accumulated in his career before his trade to the Padres. Among those were three five-hit games and 11 four-hit games. And it wasn't just singles. Those games included 36 doubles, six triples and five homers.