5 questions still facing the Mariners for 2022

PEORIA, Ariz. -- Now that a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is in place, the Mariners must quickly address -- and answer -- many of the most pressing questions facing their personnel for the onset of the season.

Here are the five that stand out the most leading into 2022:

1. Can they land another big-ticket player?
Before the shutdown, the Mariners acquired a pair of All-Stars (starting pitcher Robbie Ray and second baseman Adam Frazier) to make their rotation deeper and lineup longer. Both were nice additions and addressed areas of need, but Seattle could stand to continue bolstering those areas -- and the Mariners still have payroll flexibility to play in the high-priced waters.

After accounting projections for their arbitration-eligible players (including Frazier, Mitch Haniger and J.P. Crawford), the Mariners are operating with a roughly $77 million Opening Day payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, leaving them with room to add another blue-chip free agent or a higher-salaried trade piece. They’ve courted Kris Bryant, Trevor Story and Seiya Suzuki, and engaged in possible trades for Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray and more.

The Mariners have the ambition to keep adding -- but they also have huge urgency now, given that there should be a major transaction scramble, with teams looking to fill needs and players seeking a home, all with little time to spare before the season.

2. When will Julio arrive?
Sooner than later. The Mariners haven’t tempered the timeline of Julio Rodríguez like they did Jarred Kelenic a year ago, saying that anything is possible for J-Rod. But the more realistic outlook for MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect is a stint at Triple-A Tacoma before the big leagues, strictly from a stance of seeing more advanced pitching.

There, a bevy of breaking balls will await the 6-foot-3 slugger, who has soared through Seattle’s farm system in huge part for his ability to crush fastballs. At Tacoma, he’ll face stingier pitchers who possess better stuff and are playing with the motivation knowing that the big leagues are one step away. The Mariners also have mentioned that he could transition more to center field, and gaining more reps in the Minors could help facilitate that process.

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A right fielder by trade, Rodríguez’s immediate fit isn’t clear given that his role will hinge on whatever other additions Seattle makes ahead of Opening Day. But the front office has said Rodríguez is part of its plans for 2022. Kelenic reached the big leagues in mid-May, and Rodríguez following a similar trajectory seems highly plausible if he continues to check all boxes.

3. Can the bullpen be as elite as last year?
The most surprising element of Seattle’s 2021 roster was easily its bullpen, which ranked fourth in the Majors with 7.0 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs. And the club is bringing back all of its key contributors, including Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo and Drew Steckenrider, while returning what it believes will be two high-leverage arms coming back from injuries, Andrés Mu?oz and Ken Giles.

There’s promise, but even Mariners manager Scott Servais is candid about the fickle nature of bullpens, having said as much earlier this offseason.

“We all understand how bullpens work,” Servais said. “They go up and down. You can have four or five guys that are killing it, then all of a sudden you show up the next year and you have a couple injuries, lack of performance, this guy's fastball isn't this. It can change in a hurry. So you need a lot of depth. And that's what excites me about our bullpen because we do have depth, and we're adding to it.”

The bullpen was gassed by season’s end, perhaps a byproduct of having to cover many early-season injuries to the rotation. The Mariners have had a solid track record of finding hidden gems in this realm, though, and perhaps they do so again before the season starts.

4. How does the rotation stack up after surprising in 2021?
Contrast from the bullpen, Seattle’s starters ranked 22nd with 7.3 WAR last season, though much of that can be attributed to their early-season injuries and inconsistencies. More than half of that WAR (3.4) was accumulated over the final two months, a stretch in which they were 13th-best, even with Yusei Kikuchi’s spiral.

The 2021 rotation could still use another established big leaguer from outside, especially from an innings-allocation standpoint. The group is currently comprised of Ray (coming off a Cy Young year), Marco Gonzales (the staff leader who surged in the second half), Chris Flexen (the pleasant surprise and beacon of consistency) and Logan Gilbert (the towering sophomore with big upside). Barring health, it’s the best No. 1-4 unit that the Mariners have had since at least 2018.

But the big uncertainty is what to do with No. 5 -- and beyond. The Mariners entered last year with a six-man rotation but wound up using 14 non-opener starters. Top prospect reinforcements such as Matt Brash (Mariners' No. 10 prospect), Brandon Williamson (No. 7) and George Kirby (No. 3) are coming, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. But there’s still a great need for a bridge to those arms and overall depth in the immediate.

5. What can they expect from Lewis, White, other recovering players?
Kyle Lewis regularly posted Instagram videos of him working out and swinging in January, which was an encouraging sign. But Dipoto has reiterated that the Mariners won’t have clarity on the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year until they see his surgically repaired knee in action in Spring Training. Lewis will be determined to return to center field, but the Mariners will likely ease him back there, even if he is fully healthy, given his knee’s troubled history, and sources suggested that the club would’ve played him exclusively at DH had he returned late last year.

As for Evan White, he’s on track to be at full strength in camp, recovered from the season-ending left hip surgery he underwent last July. But where does the 2020 Gold Glove Award-winning first baseman stand after Ty France emerged as the team’s MVP? In the Mariners’ eyes, it’s a good problem to have. Dipoto has toyed with giving White outfield reps, and given White’s pronounced offensive struggles in his first two seasons, with a .165/.235/.308 (.544 OPS) slash line, it’s also possible that they start him at Triple-A Tacoma to further develop his bat.

Justin Dunn (right shoulder inflammation) was trending toward a return in September, but he experienced a setback and ran out of time. Before the lockout began, Dunn was on par to throw off a mound in December at an independent facility where he trains in Florida. Nick Margevicius (surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome) remains a question mark.