Why Mariners would be a tough playoff draw

SEATTLE -- World Series preview, anyone?

Such a proclamation of this weekend’s matchup between the Wild Card-hopeful Mariners and the defending champion Braves is wildly aggressive and perhaps outlandish, especially with so much baseball to play before the Fall Classic. But Seattle’s epic and series-clinching victory on Sunday showed that maybe Mariners fans should dare to dream.

The Braves voyaged to the Pacific Northwest as MLB’s hottest -- and arguably best -- team, and they showed why in Friday’s commanding win, their eighth straight. Yet the Mariners didn’t blink, bounced back and over the ensuing two days joined the NL Central-leading Cardinals as the only teams to defeat almighty Atlanta in consecutive games over the past five weeks.

Throughout this weekend that featured near sellouts in front of a fanbase starved for these moments, the Mariners showed why they could be the team that no one wants to run into in October. And it was all on display against as good of a team as there is.

Their starting rotation is dominant

After Marco Gonzales spun six brilliant innings on Sunday, Seattle’s starting pitchers have a 1.77 ERA, a .546 opponents’ OPS, a 10.0 strikeout-per-walks ratio and 0.8 walks per nine innings since Aug. 23 -- all MLB bests. They’re allowing 8.2 base runners per nine innings in that span, less than one per, also tops in MLB.

“One of our main principles on the mound is first-pitch strikes, no free bases,” Gonzales said. “And so when we're rolling, that's what we're doing.”

It’s correlated to a 13-5 overall record in that stretch, which has helped them create a cushion in the postseason standings, as they’re now six games ahead of Baltimore for the final AL Wild Card spot and hold a tiebreaker.

This current stretch is elite, but the rotation has been consistent all season -- and even more paramount, healthy. Not one starter has missed an outing due to injury.

With the AL West title essentially out of reach, the Mariners are on a fast track to play in the Wild Card Series, and their workhorses are why they’d be a daunting opponent in a best-of-three. Rolling out Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and then choosing between Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, who completely overpowered Atlanta on Saturday, would be quite a luxury for manager Scott Servais.

“It’s a lot of fun,” Servais said. “There’s no better feeling. Pitching drives the train. It will always drive the train in baseball, as far as I’m concerned. You’ve got to make the plays behind them and do all the other stuff, but we’re in a good spot. I love our rotation.”

They have, statistically, MLB’s best bullpen

Sunday’s near collapse -- five runs surrendered with two outs in the ninth inning -- was ugly, but also, an outlier.

Even including that outing, dating back to June 21, when Seattle famously entered play 10 games under .500, its bullpen leads MLB in ERA (2.52), opponents’ batting average (.189), opponents’ OPS (.574), inherited runners scored percentage (18.8%), WHIP (1.02) and left on base percentage (80.1%). They rank second in strikeout rate (26.9%) and third in WAR, per FanGraphs (3.3).

Not coincidentally, the Mariners have the AL’s best overall record (50-22) in this stretch.

That stable of elite arms has also allowed the Mariners to walk the tight-rope late in games, with an MLB-best 28-17 record in one-run games. And if postseason roster construction over the past decade has indicated, the teams that typically play deep into October have a deep bullpen.

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“I think anybody that's in our bullpen right now is capable of pitching in any situation, which is really special to say,” reliever Erik Swanson said. “We have a number of guys down there that have some of the nastiest stuff that I've seen."

They’re finally hitting

So much of Seattle’s struggles early this season were rooted in a failure to cash in runners, and the lack of the consistent long ball. But they’re crushing it lately, with a whopping nine homers last weekend against Atlanta and an AL-high 58 since Aug. 1. And that’s with Mitch Haniger in a 10-for-61 funk, Ty France nursing a wrist injury and Jesse Winker without an RBI since Aug. 19.

Compared to their June swoon, Seattle is better equipped to pick up the slack -- Eugenio Suárez being a huge factor here, with 11 homers in his past 22 games to bring his season total to a team-high 30. The veteran has a knack for being hot and cold, but when he’s producing, it completely changes the dynamic of their lineup.

“Geno has been awesome, really all year long,” Servais said. “But recently, he's barreling the ball up. He hits it in the air. He's got all kinds of power and he's been huge for us. I love having him in the middle of our lineup. You know you’re going to get a good at-bat and he just pummeled the mistakes.”

Julio Rodríguez justifiably gets most of the love among their young talent, but before Sunday, Cal Raleigh had just as many homers, with 23. That number leads all MLB catchers.

Servais recognizes the beauty of the long ball, but he knows the risks of living by it. The Mariners have a .305 on-base percentage in this same stretch, tied for 20th. Creating more consistent traffic, especially when the pitching quality skyrockets in the postseason, will be critical.

They don’t make defensive mistakes

The analytics back the eye test in assessing that Seattle has some of the game’s best gloves. And when every out is vital in the playoffs, there's zero margin for sloppy errors.

Mariners’ defensive ranks (MLB rank)
Errors: 56 (1st)
Outs above average: 10 (10th)
Defensive runs saved: 41 (8th)
Defensive WAR: 0.6 (12th)

Acquiring quality defenders -- and those who buy into the thorough preparation and philosophies instilled by infield coach Perry Hill -- was a huge premium on Seattle’s roster building during the rebuild.

“Defense is a big deal for us,” Servais said. “Just taking pride in it and knowing the value of every out. Perry has said it since he got here: ‘27 outs, no more.’ Don’t give up any more than 27. If we do that, we’ll win a lot of games that way. I’ve often said, too: We win a lot of games, but we don’t lose a lot of games that way. That’s where you lose them.”

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The Mariners might not be the best team on paper, but they don’t have many holes. Their roster construction, with a premium on pitching and defense, is built for the postseason -- which is why they’d be a tough draw for any opponent, as the defending champs learned last weekend.