The winning formula for 2025 Mets as Soto Era begins

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- Once again, the Mets head into a new season with a league-leading payroll and massive expectations. The addition of Juan Soto was a coup for a team that, last year, came within two wins of the World Series.

But Soto can’t solve every Mets problem. The 2025 version of this club features plenty of pitching questions and plays in arguably Major League Baseball’s toughest division. As manager Carlos Mendoza likes to say, the Braves and Phillies won’t feel sorry that the Mets are missing two of their top five pitchers out of the chute. No one will.

Instead, the Mets must forge forward, knowing they possess an elite lineup, an owner who’s willing to add when necessary and lots of upside throughout the roster.

“Everything that is said outside of this locker room, it does not matter,” Mendoza said. “We know we’ve got a good team. But there’s a long ways to go.”

What needs to go right? The rotation has to hold up.

Few question the Mets’ ability to bang the ball around the park, with Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso leading the way. Of greater concern is the rotation, currently headlined by reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes and several historically inconsistent pieces. Last year, the Mets did well to mold Sean Manaea and Luis Severino into solid starters. They’ll need to do the same with a combination of Manaea, Holmes, Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Frankie Montas and Paul Blackburn … at least until prospect or trade reinforcements arrive. Manaea and Montas are currently injured, adding to the degree of difficulty.

Great unknown: What exactly do the Mets have in Senga?

They’ve been asking themselves this question for more than a year, ever since Senga missed the start of last season -- and ultimately, almost all of it -- due to shoulder, triceps and calf injuries. He’s been healthy this spring but both limited and inconsistent in Grapefruit League games. For that reason, the Mets are holding him out until the fifth game of the regular season in Miami. Will Senga return to the ace-like form he showed in 2023? Will he be a lesser pitcher? Will he even manage to stay on the mound? The next few months should go a long way toward answering those questions.

Team MVP will be ... Soto.

With respect to Lindor, who finished second behind Shohei Ohtani in National League MVP voting last year, Soto is now the best offensive player on this team. He’s finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting five times in the last six years, he’s coming off arguably his best season ever and he’s smack in the middle of his physical prime. Anything other than an MVP-caliber season for Soto would be a disappointment.

Team Cy Young will be ... Holmes.

Maybe it’s a lot to put on a player who hasn’t started a game since 2018, but Holmes looked sharp all spring and seems well-prepared to make this transition work. It helps that he doesn’t have much competition. Outside of maybe Peterson, Holmes is the Mets’ best bet to stay healthy and in the rotation all year. The team may receive better small-sample performances from others this season, but Holmes is most likely to help the rotation wire-to-wire.

Bold prediction: Soto will have the best season of his career.

It’s going to be difficult to top last year, when Soto played his home games in a hitter-friendly ballpark and bashed 41 homers with a .989 OPS, finishing third in American League MVP voting. He also lost Aaron Judge as a teammate and chief lineup protector. But Soto seems loose and happy in his new home, and he’s stepping into a starting nine featuring loads of depth, including Lindor, Alonso, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo. At 26 years old, the ingredients are all there for Soto to have a monster year.