Shildt chooses wisely in taking a run off the board

SAN DIEGO -- It’s not often that a manager willingly chooses to take a run off the board, but Padres skipper Mike Shildt did exactly that Tuesday night.

His faith was promptly rewarded, courtesy of Manny Machado.

With one out in the fifth inning of San Diego’s 6-4 victory over the Reds at Petco Park, Padres first baseman Jake Cronenworth hit what appeared to be an RBI groundout to second base. Tyler Wade scored from third. Fernando Tatis Jr. advanced to second. Machado was due up. Ho hum.

But Cronenworth made a signal toward the plate for a catcher’s interference ruling. Sure enough, home-plate ump Cory Blaser made the call, leaving Shildt with an intriguing decision.

On catcher’s interference, the batting team is allowed to accept the result of the play rather than the base that the batter would otherwise have been awarded. Almost always, when catcher’s interference is declined, it’s because the play resulted in a hit, anyway.

But on this occasion, Cronenworth made the inning's second out. He also plated a run. It left Shildt with these two options:

1. Decline the interference, take the out and the run and a 2-0 lead
2. Accept the interference, with Wade returning to third, leaving the bases loaded with one out for Machado and a 1-0 Padres lead

In part, Shildt credited his “Charlotte-Mecklenburg public education.” But the real driving force behind his decision?

“You can have the bases loaded and one out for Manny Machado?” Shildt said. “I’m going to bet on Manny Machado.”

A prudent decision, as it turned out. Machado roped Nick Martinez’s first-pitch sinker to left-center field for a bases-clearing double. The Padres led, 4-0. Informed of his manager’s words after the game, Machado was clearly appreciative.

“That’s Shildty,” Machado said. “It’s just the confidence he’s been giving us all year. It truly speaks volumes.”

For what it's worth, FanGraphs' run expectancy matrix supports Shildt's decision. (That Charlotte-Mecklenburg education served him well.) With the bases loaded and one out, a team is expected to score 1.520 runs in an inning. With a man on second and two outs, a team is expected to score 0.305 -- in addition to the one the Padres had already scored, meaning an average of 1.305.

Of course, the run expectancy matrix doesn't account for Machado, one of the sport's most fearsome hitters, being due up.

“That was a big part of the calculus,” Shildt said. “... I’ll take my shot with Manny. It really wasn’t that hard a decision.”

The math overwhelmingly backed Shildt. But it was still an unusual call. That’s especially true considering the Padres’ recent struggles. This was a team that had dropped five straight, choosing to take a run off the board in a one-run game. Had the Padres come up empty -- as they did in the first inning with the bases loaded and nobody out -- the discourse might’ve been different.

That’s not the way Shildt chose to look at it. He wanted an extra out to work with. As it turned out, the Padres tacked on a fourth run in the frame when Spencer Steer misplayed Jackson Merrill’s two-out liner.

The Padres led, 5-0, on the strength of five scoreless innings from Yu Darvish, who was excellent in his return from the injured list. Those extra runs proved pivotal.

The Padres’ middle relief surrendered two runs apiece in the sixth and seventh innings, before Robert Suarez earned his 10th save, tied for the Major League lead.

But the game might have played out differently had Shildt opted to keep that run on the board. For one, the Reds might have pitched around Machado.

“Now it’s bases loaded with their best hitter, and I have to pitch to him,” said the former Padre Martinez, the Reds’ starter Tuesday night. “I definitely understand the call, yeah. It worked out in their favor.”

Martinez had escaped a similar jam in the first, with some help from shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who made a lunging snare to rob Machado of a hit. Presented with the same opportunity in the fifth, Machado came to the plate on a mission.

“The opportunity came up in that situation with the bases loaded,” Machado said. “I know I missed earlier in the game. We should’ve had two -- but obviously you have that superstar at shortstop, making that long-armed play.

“It’s just not letting them get away with it. We needed those runs. We needed this win.”