Which of these 5 teams can crack stacked NL postseason picture?

This week, our MLB.com Power Rankings ended up in a pretty strange place: The top six teams in baseball were all from the National League. In this order: Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Cubs and Giants.

That’s particularly noteworthy because, as you may remember, there are only six teams that make the playoffs in each league, and thus those six have an immediate leg up on those spots. If those were the six at the end of the season, they’d have these first two weeks as a clear reason why.

Will anyone else be able to break in? Let’s take a look at the five most likely NL teams to bust into that top six -- and therefore the playoff picture -- by the end of the year.

Each team is listed with its current record, as well as its postseason odds (per FanGraphs) entering Wednesday’s action.

1. Braves (5-13)

Postseason odds: 63.8%
What’s gone wrong so far: You name it. They lost their first seven games of the season. A team that a couple of years ago many thought might have one of the best offenses in baseball history is currently 25th in the Majors in runs. The pitching hasn’t been much better, putting up a 4.46 ERA, tied with the Brewers for 24th in MLB. Michael Harris II is batting .190; Matt Olson is batting .200; Jurickson Profar is serving an 80-game suspension. And Ronald Acu?a Jr. hasn’t come back yet.

Path to a playoff spot: Acu?a, it turns out, is close to returning; Spencer Strider, the other injured superstar Brave, made his debut on Wednesday and looked like himself. And for what it’s worth, Atlanta's bats have been improving, with Sean Murphy healthy again and Austin Riley raking. After that 0-7 start, the Braves played .500 ball over their next 10 games, against a tough schedule, before losing Wednesday afternoon. They are still the Braves, loaded with talent. They just need to get everybody on the field.

Prognosis: Don’t forget: Even with all the injuries last year, Atlanta still made the playoffs in 2024. The returns of Acu?a and Strider may well be the sparks that get these embers burning again. It was a brutal start. But it’d still be a shock not to see the Braves in October.

2. Diamondbacks (10-7)

Postseason odds: 60.8%
What’s gone wrong so far: Oh, it hasn’t been so bad. They’re 10-7, after all; that’s the same record as the first-place Yankees. The problem is that the rest of the NL West has been so outstanding. That 10-7 record, spread out over the whole season, would mark the D-backs’ best winning percentage since 2002. The pitching, thought to be a strength heading into the season, hasn’t quite lived up to the hype just yet, but seriously, let’s not get carried away. This team is doing just fine.

Path to a playoff spot: They need the Padres and Giants to cool off, first of all. That seems pretty likely to happen. The Diamondbacks, with a combined 26 games remaining against those teams, can have a hand in that, too. Beyond that, Arizona’s rotation needs to get back to where we all thought it would be. That seems pretty likely to happen, too. This team is second in the Majors in OPS, so if the pitching perks up a bit, Arizona will get on a roll.

Prognosis: It’s going to be a tough fight in the NL West -- the Dodgers are currently in third place, after all. The D-backs will be in this thing all the way to the end.

3. Brewers (10-9)

Postseason odds: 26.9%
What’s gone wrong so far: Have the Brewers finally run out of pitching? A team that once got by with a middling offense and a splendid rotation, and (especially) bullpen, is tied with Atlanta for the 24th-best ERA in the Majors, thanks in part to several key arms being on the injured list. The offense is also a little top-heavy. Jackson Chourio (who already looks like a star) and William Contreras are hitting, but Rhys Hoskins and (especially) Christian Yelich very much are not. But the biggest problem for Milwaukee, and the next three teams on this list? The Cubs look like they might just run away with this division.

Path to a playoff spot: The Brewers have got to fix that pitching, which they have a history of being able to do. But Chourio needs a couple more running mates. Mostly, the Brewers need the Cubs to slow down.

Prognosis: Milwaukee has won two straight division titles. A third may be a stretch. But can this club get enough wins to grab a Wild Card spot?

4. Reds (9-8)

Postseason odds: 16.8%
What’s gone wrong so far: After starting 3-7, the Reds won six of their next seven to get back over .500, with their only loss in that stretch coming in extra innings. Still, they’ve had to do with a rather limp offense, which ranks 27th in the Majors with a .607 OPS. It should help that the Reds just got Matt McLain, their best hitter so far, back from the IL, and it’s difficult to imagine Elly De La Cruz putting up a sub-.700 OPS all year.

Path to a playoff spot: It’s actually the pitching. The Reds have the second-best rotation ERA in the Majors, and Hunter Greene looks like a legitimate Cy Young candidate. If the Reds could sneak into a short series in October, they could be trouble. For what it’s worth: They currently have a better run differential than the Dodgers.

Prognosis: Cincinnati does look better, and it’s not just new manager Terry Francona’s influence. But the climb to catch those Cubs is awfully steep.

5. Cardinals (9-9)

Postseason odds: 19.6%
What’s gone wrong so far: The pitching has been wobbly, particularly the bullpen, though the rotation has rounded into shape a little. That’s partly because of the emergence of young-ish starters Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante. But the real reason the Cardinals’ record isn’t better is that they’re 0-4 in extra-inning games.

Path to a playoff spot: The revelation this year has been the offense, which is third in the Majors in runs, first in batting average, tied with Arizona for first in OBP and third in OPS. Much of that is because of the emergence of young hitters such as Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II and (especially) Brendan Donovan. Can those guys stay healthy all year, and can the pitching stay stabilized? This team is a little better than its record shows.

Prognosis: The Cardinals’ focus is still on the future, and 2026 and '27 remain more important than '25.