The thought process behind O's non-tender decisions

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BALTIMORE -- The Orioles’ offseason has already taken a few turns that have been unexpected -- at least from the outside. The first occurred Nov. 4, when the club declined left-hander Danny Coulombe’s $4 million 2025 team option.

More came Friday, when the non-tender deadline passed at 8 p.m. ET. Baltimore entered the day with 13 arbitration-eligible players, and if fans and/or media had been polled prior to that deadline, quite a few would have thought infielder Emmanuel Rivera was the most likely non-tender candidate.

Instead, Rivera was not only tendered a contract, but the 28-year-old infielder was the only player from the arbitration-eligible group to already agree to terms for 2025. Meanwhile, right-handed reliever Jacob Webb was the lone O’s player non-tendered, with the 11 other arb-eligibles all being tendered.

What led to these decisions by the Orioles? Let’s try to figure that out.

Why was Webb non-tendered, making him a free agent?
For the second time this month, general manager Mike Elias surprised outsiders by opting to not bring back a pitcher who was a key piece of Baltimore’s 2023 and ‘24 bullpens. First, Coulombe, and now, Webb.

After the Orioles claimed Webb off waivers from the Angels on Aug. 9, 2023, he quickly became a trusted relief option, which carried into ‘24. In 85 appearances over the past two seasons, the 31-year-old had a 3.09 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 78 2/3 innings.

So, why not bring Webb back? That might not become completely clear until the next time Elias speaks to the media (likely at the Winter Meetings in Dallas from Dec. 9-11). But his explanation will likely be similar to that of the Coulombe move, which he explained was “talent evaluation and the fit that you see going forward.”

Maybe there were durability concerns for both Coulombe (who missed three months this past season after surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow) and Webb (who missed a month with right elbow inflammation). Perhaps the O’s are confident in some of their unproven internal options -- lefty Luis González and righty Kade Strowd were added to the 40-man roster earlier this month.

Or Baltimore might plan to be aggressive in the free-agent and/or trade markets to reinvent its bullpen.

Whatever the reasoning, the Orioles must feel comfortable moving on without Webb, who made $1 million this past season and had been projected to earn $1.7 million in arbitration by MLB Trade Rumors.

Why was Rivera tendered a contract?

Baltimore’s infield mix is crowded. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn could again factor into a platoon at first base next season. Gunnar Henderson will be the starting shortstop, with Jordan Westburg starting at either second or third base (or alternating).

Jackson Holliday could start at second. Top prospect Coby Mayo, the No. 8 prospect in baseball, could start at third or be part of a rotation at first. Ramón Urías can fill in around the infield. Jorge Mateo can fill in up the middle. Livan Soto could be a depth option anywhere.

So, why bring Rivera back? For one, the cost isn’t too high. A source told MLB.com that his salary for next season will be $1 million, less than the $1.4 million he was projected to make in arbitration by MLB Trade Rumors.

That seems like solid value for a corner infielder who slashed .313/.370/.578 in 27 games for Baltimore over the final two months of the 2024 season.

Plus, it can never hurt to have depth. Mateo, Mountcastle, Urías and Westburg spent time on the injured list this year, which is why Rivera was acquired in the first place.

It’s not a guarantee that Rivera will be a contributor next season, or that he will even make the Opening Day roster. But it makes sense to keep him in the fold for now.

Any surprises among the other 11 arb-eligibles tendered?

Not really, unless you thought Mateo and/or Urías were non-tender candidates for the same reasons as Rivera. But it never seemed likely that Baltimore would part with either in that way, especially because both veterans could still provide value on the 2025 roster.

It became obvious the O’s would tender Mateo a contract after Elias recently mentioned the 29-year-old infielder/outfielder and how much the team missed him after he sustained a season-ending left elbow injury on July 23.

“I think he was an underrated absence for us in the second half,” Elias said. “He’s really somebody that we’re able to plan around fully, more or less, in 2025, and that hasn’t changed.”