The Bautista-less bullpen strategy for O's in postseason

BALTIMORE -- On Aug. 25, All-Star closer Félix Bautista threw a pitch, stumbled to his left and experienced visible discomfort in his right arm. Nobody knew it at the time, but the 28-year-old right-hander partially tore his right UCL at that moment. He won’t throw another pitch in a game until 2025, after he undergoes Tommy John surgery.

• ALDS Game 1, presented by Booking.com: Today at 1 p.m. ET on FS1

On Aug. 26, the Orioles held a team meeting to discuss the potential of moving through the rest of the season -- and the postseason -- without one of the game’s top bullpen arms.

“We talked a lot about what he has meant and what we need to do,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “Guys needed to step up in different ways.”

Without a set closer, Baltimore has opted to use its other top relievers in matchup-based spots dependent on the game situation and the opposing lineup. That’s what the O’s are planning to continue to do in the postseason, beginning Saturday, when they’ll host either the Rays or the Rangers in Game 1 of the American League Division Series at Camden Yards.

The Orioles aren’t taking this closer-by-committee approach because they’re desperate. They’re doing so because it has worked.

Over 128 games from March 30-Aug. 25 (with Bautista), Baltimore’s bullpen ERA was 3.55. In 34 games from Aug. 26-Oct. 1 (without Bautista), the club’s relief corps posted a 3.54 ERA.

“We just have a lot of really good arms,” said left-hander Danny Coulombe, who had a 2.81 ERA over 61 appearances in his first season with the Orioles. “Obviously, it really hurts to lose Félix. There’s no doubt. But we have a lot of arms, and we’re pretty confident in that.”

This technique required a good bit of additional work for Hyde. In the past, he could turn the ball over to Bautista knowing he likely wouldn’t have to touch the bullpen phone again that night.

Bautista had a 1.48 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and 33 saves over 56 appearances, striking out 110 in 61 innings.

“It’s a lot harder,” Hyde said. “Normally, it would be an eight-inning ballgame, and then you give the ball to him and take your chances. Or 7 2/3. Or tie game in the ninth, back out for the 10th, on the road type of situation, and you take a chance with a guy that’s going to punch out 40-something percent of hitters.”

Now, Hyde mixes and matches, sometimes even using multiple relievers in the ninth.

All-Star right-hander Yennier Cano leads the charge. The 29-year-old breakout rookie had a 2.11 ERA in a team-high 72 appearances. He’s especially tough on right-handed hitters (a .203/.244/.313 slash line), and he ranks second on the Orioles, behind Bautista, with eight saves.

But Hyde will sometimes still deploy Cano in the seventh or eighth in order to get through a tough part of the order.

“Him using me, whether it’s in the ninth, the seventh inning, whatever it is and wherever he needs me, I’ll be ready to go,” Cano said through team interpreter Brandon Quinones. “I’m just happy to be out there.”

Baltimore also has a trio of high-leverage lefties in Coulombe, Cionel Pérez and former top prospect DL Hall. Pérez may be the best option of the three late in games, even if his ERA rose from 1.40 in ‘22 to 3.54 in ‘23. The 27-year-old southpaw struggled early in the year before returning to form and recording a 1.37 ERA in 27 appearances from July 27-Oct. 1.

The Orioles’ late-inning X-factor is right-hander Tyler Wells, who closed for the team late in 2021 before developing into a top starter by the first half of ‘23. The 29-year-old became fatigued early in the second half, though, and Baltimore sent him to the Minors. He rejoined the O’s on Sept. 22 and made four relief appearances, tossing five scoreless innings without allowing a hit.

Wells is unlikely to be the only converted starter in the Orioles’ postseason bullpen. He should be joined by Jack Flaherty and one of John Means, Dean Kremer or Kyle Gibson, as the club will only need three or four starters in the ALDS.

“I actually think that’s going to be nice, because we have a lot of healthy, starting-caliber pitchers up and running right now on the team,” general manager Mike Elias said. “It’s maybe something that we’re going to try to lean into in the playoffs.”

Starting pitchers typically have shorter leashes in the postseason. Or teams use them to shorten a game before turning it over to as many high-octane relief arms as possible.

Consider the bullpen usage of the past five World Series champions in their postseason runs:

2018 Red Sox: 2.71 bullpen ERA, 47% of innings by relievers
2019 Nationals: 4.44 bullpen ERA, 33.1% of innings by relievers
2020 Dodgers: 3.64 bullpen ERA, 52.3% of innings by relievers
2021 Braves: 3.11 bullpen ERA, 53.8% of innings by relievers
2022 Astros: 0.83 bullpen ERA, 43.1% of innings by relievers

The Orioles used their relievers to cover 39.6% of their innings during the regular season. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, if they stuck with the recent trend of increased bullpen usage in the postseason, leaning even more into matchups and avoiding having starters face a lineup for the third time in a contest.

And when it comes to the final third of the game, don’t expect Hyde to shift from his post-Bautista strategy.

“I’m going to continue doing what I’ve been doing,” Hyde said. “It’s been the plan since the next day after [Bautista] got hurt, honestly.”