5 biggest questions facing the Padres this winter

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A week later, the sting of the Padres' National League Division Series exit remains fresh. But it's never too early to look ahead.

The Padres spent the past week going through exit meetings before what figures to be a busy offseason. Here are five of the most pressing questions for the winter in San Diego:

1. Will Jurickson Profar be back?

Hard to imagine this version of Profar playing anywhere else. In parts of five seasons with the Padres, Profar has posted a .753 OPS, including an .839 mark in 2024 -- which earned him his first trip to an All-Star Game. He's never come close to those heights anywhere else.

That said, Profar has earned a raise on the $1 million steal of a contract that San Diego signed him to last spring. The Padres have question marks elsewhere on their roster, and it's entirely possible they'd look to find the next Profar-type bargain in left field, rather than simply re-signing Profar.

Still, this much is clear: Profar loves being a Padre, and the Padres love Profar.

"I want to be here," Profar said. "This team, I think they have all the things to win a World Series. [Manager] Mike Shildt built a beautiful thing here. Hopefully, I'm part of it."

2. Who else is back?

The list of other notable potential Padres free agents: Ha-Seong Kim, Tanner Scott, Kyle Higashioka, David Peralta, Donovan Solano and Martín Pérez.

Kim became a fan favorite across four seasons as a Padre, but he's almost certain to exercise the player portion of a mutual option in his contract. The Padres have shortstop candidates galore, and while they’d explore a reunion with Kim, they won’t be the only team after his services.

From the above list, Scott seems likely to get a serious payday as a closer elsewhere. (The back end of the Padres' bullpen, meanwhile, appears mostly set, though it could certainly use more from the left side.) Peralta, Solano and Pérez all filled important roles in getting San Diego to October. But the Padres might look elsewhere to fill those roles in 2025.

Higashioka might be the most obvious fit. Like Profar, he's expressed an interest in returning. At 34, his timeline seems to fit well enough with the club's plan to hand the reins to top prospect Ethan Salas in the near future, but not immediately.

3. Extension season?

San Diego's extension candidates this winter range from veteran players nearing free agency to a standout rookie -- with perhaps a few between.

We'll start with the big one: Jackson Merrill is coming off the most impressive rookie season in franchise history. As The Athletic first reported, Merrill and the Padres briefly explored the possibility of an extension last offseason. No doubt, the cost just went up. Still, Merrill has made it clear he loves playing in San Diego (and would love to do so for a long time).

Meanwhile, three crucial pieces will be entering their final season before free agency: Michael King, Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez.

Cease, a career frontline ace, seems unlikely to sign an extension this winter, considering the hefty paycheck presumably awaiting him next offseason. But King and Arraez could be more realistic targets.

King thrived in his first season as a full-time starter and made his love of the organization clear. Same goes for Arraez, who has spoken repeatedly about his desire to settle in after playing with three teams in the past three seasons (and winning a batting title with each).

4. How does San Diego round out the rotation?

At the front of the 2025 rotation are King, Cease and Yu Darvish. That's a better starting point than most of the rest of the league.

But the question marks are bigger than the Padres hoped, following Joe Musgrove's Tommy John surgery last week.

Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron filled out the back of the San Diego rotation admirably at times last year, but I'd expect the Padres to aim high for a de facto Musgrove replacement. Then, they could add another fringe arm or two to vie for a back-end spot with Vásquez and Waldron.

5. What's next for Shildt (and Niebla)?

Shildt signed a two-year deal after he was hired last winter. Based on the early returns, he's probably earned an extension. Shildt's first season with the Padres was a success, with the team's 93 wins qualifying as the second most in franchise history.

The tangible effects of a manager are hard to quantify, but San Diego was much better situationally and fundamentally in 2024. As the man at the helm, Shildt gets at least some credit. Managers rarely enter a season with the uncertainty surrounding a final year under contract. Shildt's status is an important question this winter.

So is the status of pitching coach Ruben Niebla, who has been integral to the team's pitching success over the past three seasons -- including the development of King, Robert Suarez and many others. Niebla is widely regarded as one of the best in baseball at his job. The Padres must do what it takes to retain him.