Padres' next steps after missing out on Sasaki

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

No getting around it: For the Padres, this one hurts.

They wanted Roki Sasaki. Everyone wanted Roki Sasaki -- he's a 23-year-old ace entering the Majors on a rookie contract. But the Padres really wanted Roki Sasaki. There's an argument that no team needed him more, considering the state of their contention window and their rotation, both in the short- and long-term.

And, on Friday, Sasaki chose the Dodgers.

The disappointment in San Diego is palpable. Especially considering the fact that the Padres were a finalist -- and that they clearly felt very strongly about their pitch.

Now what? Well, the show goes on. The Padres have major questions they need to answer this winter, and it's time to answer 'em. That was true, whether they signed Sasaki or not.

They still need a left fielder. They need an additional bat, another catcher and some depth. Most of all, they need another starter or two.

In a way, general manager A.J. Preller has been here before.

If it feels a bit bleak now, amid the Dodgers' indulgent offseason, I'd encourage you to think back to last winter. The Padres were coming off an 82-win season then. They'd traded Juan Soto and lost a number of key pitchers. It was bleak then, too.

Then, in what was without question his best work in 10 seasons as Padres GM, Preller threaded the needle. He shrewdly maneuvered and added, and built a Padres roster that won 93 games and put together the sport's best record in the second half. That roster took the Dodgers to the brink in the NLDS.

Last winter -- when San Diego traded Soto and L.A. signed Shohei Ohtani in the same week -- a baseball writer I respect called it the end of the Padres-Dodgers rivalry. And then, the two teams turned in perhaps the most enthralling chapter of their rivalry in 2024.

Which is all a long way of saying this: The Dodgers are favorites -- and clear favorites in the NL West. But the Padres still have one of the sport's most talented cores. With the right moves this winter, they should contend in 2025, just like they did in ‘24. But there are serious question marks.

The possible next steps:

1. The Padres need pitching, and Preller managed to find it cheaply last year. Clearly the team’s pitching development under Ruben Niebla is a strong suit. (One of the reasons they liked their pitch to Sasaki.) It’s time for Preller and Co. to identify the types of arms that can be maximized by the Padres’ pitching group.

2. One possible avenue they’ve already explored: Moving a reliever to the rotation. That seems a whole lot likelier now that Sasaki has landed in L.A. (and that the Padres still haven’t added a starter this winter). Is Adrian Morejon that guy? His upside is clearly high enough. His arsenal should work. But there are obvious questions about his durability. Hey, the Padres made it work with Seth Lugo and Michael King. (Of course, this might necessitate a bullpen addition, with Morejon as their current top lefty arm.)

3. As things currently stand, the Padres are right up against the first Collective Bargaining tax threshold. It’s unclear whether they’re willing to exceed that mark, but given their inactivity so far this winter … it seems unlikely right now. (A tough pill to swallow considering the Dodgers’ spending, but it might be the reality.) If that’s the case, it’s time for Preller to get creative, as he did with Soto a year ago. There’s no Soto on this roster. But there are trade chips -- several with one year of control remaining. If that’s the case, the Padres could look to trade one of them for multiple players with additional years of control.

4. Meanwhile, with Sasaki off the board, the Padres have work to do on the international market -- and their entire bonus pool to spend. To be clear, anyone else is a consolation prize, but there are worthwhile consolation prizes out there, including MLB Pipeline’s next highest ranked international pitching prospect, lefty Carlos Alvarez from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

With or without Sasaki, there was going to be work to do. Now, it's time for Preller to get to work.