Mets extend qualifying offers to Alonso, Manaea, Severino

NEW YORK -- Of the 13 players to receive qualifying offers on Monday, three were Mets. That much was no surprise. The Mets have one of the largest free-agent groups in baseball, so it stands to reason that they would also feature the most QOs.

A quick primer: The qualifying offer is a one-year contract valued at the average salary of the top 125 earners in Major League Baseball -- this year, $21.05 million. Teams can extend a QO to any of their impending free agents who have never received a qualifying offer before and were on the team’s roster for the entire season. They often do so for two primary reasons: One is that issuing a QO guarantees those teams Draft pick compensation should the player in question sign elsewhere. Two is that sometimes, players accept.

That also creates a bit of a risk-reward situation for clubs, though generally, these decisions are straightforward. Such was the case for all three Mets who received a qualifying offer:

Pete Alonso, 1B
Chances of accepting: Near zero

This is about as open-and-shut a case as there is. Although Alonso has spoken openly about his love for New York and the Mets, he has also earned a chance to go to free agency for the first time in his career. Even if he returns to Flushing, Alonso won’t be doing so on a one-year, $21.05 million contract, so there’s little reason for him to accept the qualifying offer.

The Mets extended it to Alonso solely in the hope of recouping Draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Sean Manaea, LHP
Chances of accepting: Near zero

Manaea, too, has very little reason to accept a QO. His superb second half gives him a chance to cash in with a three- or four-year deal on the open market, with a chance to double or even triple his career earnings to date. He’s not going to give that up for a one-year contract, even if Manaea -- like Alonso -- says he’d relish a return to New York.

Luis Severino, RHP
Chances of accepting: Reasonable

Of the three players who received qualifying offers from the Mets, Severino is by far the most interesting case. At 30, he’s two years younger than Manaea, which makes him more of a candidate to accept a one-year pillow contract before seeking a longer-term deal next winter. While Severino enjoyed a fine season, he didn’t have quite the same type of success as Manaea, and he doesn’t boast the same recent track record of health. He’s also the exact type of pitcher whose market could be harmed by the QO, because acquiring teams might not be keen on the idea of giving up a Draft pick to acquire him.

For all those reasons, it wouldn’t be shocking for Severino to accept a one-year, $21.05 million contract, which would represent a 62 percent raise over his 2024 salary. If he does, Mets officials would be glad to have the extra measure of rotation stability heading into the offseason. Severino could subsequently hit the open market next year seeking a long-term deal at age 31.

“He had a great year. We want him back,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said at the General Managers Meetings in San Antonio, Texas. “This was sort of the first step in that process, and so we’ll see where it goes.”

All three players have until Nov. 19 to accept or reject the qualifying offer. They can speak to other teams during that period to gauge their market value.