Inbox: Which college prospects improved Draft stock most since high school?
The end of April is always an interesting time on the prospect calendar. Jim Callis and I are neck deep in finishing our Draft Top 150, which comes out next week. We've also had a slew of exciting callups to the big leagues since the season started, and while we're very early on in the schedule, we can start looking at performances and production this season.
This week's MLB Pipeline Inbox has a definite Draft bent to it, given where my brain is, but I made sure to take time to look at early performances of a prospect (last year's No. 1 pick, so I guess that's Draft-adjacent) and some thoughts on the impact of Major League callups.
Which top high school players from three years ago (for example Gavin Kilen) are now eligible to be drafted this year? Did they improve their stock by going to college? ¨C @maxisagod.bsky.social?
When we do our Draft rankings, we do it based only on perceived talent and upside. Signability, a huge obstacle for scouts and teams, doesn't enter into the equation. So every year there are a good number of prep standouts who rank pretty well but we know will be tough signs away from their college commitments. Some get drafted, typically after the 10th round, so not signing them wouldn't impact a team's bonus pool.
In 2022, only three players taken in the top 10 rounds didn't sign, and all were college players. There were a number of high schoolers taken in rounds 11-20, including the aforementioned Kilen, who were in our rankings. And there were eight players in our Top 100 who weren't drafted at all, not that uncommon since the Draft was truncated to 20 rounds. That list, by the way, included Cam Smith and Malcolm Moore, who were both first-round picks last year as Draft-eligible sophomores. Tristan Smith went undrafted and was a fourth-rounder last year. And Jurrangelo Cijntje wasn't ranked in the Top 250 in 2022, but also was a sophomore first-rounder in 2024.
Taking a sneak peek at our new list, without giving too much of it away, the two players who jump out the most as having helped themselves are Kilen, who was ranked No. 100 in 2022 and is now a first-round-caliber prospect (good call using him as an example!) and Aiva Arquette, who was No. 183 three years ago as a prepster out of Hawaii and now has the chance to go near the top of the Draft. Kilen is at Tennessee and Arquette calls Oregon State home.
The Witherspoon twins are a really interesting story. Back in 2022, Malachi ranked at No. 148, and his brother, Kyson, was intriguing but unranked. Both are now at Oklahoma, and both will rank in our Top 150. It's looking like Malachi will only improve his standing a little bit, but Kyson has catapulted into first-round territory this year.
It looks like Mason Neville, No. 102 in 2022, and Gavin Turley, No. 107, who are outfielders at Oregon and Oregon State, respectively, might improve their stock a bit, as will UC Irvine right-hander Riley Kelly. There are a number of members of the 2022 Top 100 who aren't landing on the Top 150 at all, including Gavin Guidry, Brady Neal and Bradley Loftin, all of whom were in the 70s back in 2022.
Which draft prospects could you see riding a great College World Series into a higher pick, ¨¤ la Cade Horton in 2022? ¨C @blahbla92342524.bsky.social?
Sticking with the 2022 Draft themeĦ Horton had Tommy John surgery in February 2021 and came back in 2022 and was understandably uneven, with a 7.94 ERA in the regular season. Then his stock soared after he posted a 2.61 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 31 postseason innings as he helped Oklahoma finish second at the College World Series.
I'm going to tap in colleague Jim Callis on this one, who, of course, is known for his Draft hot takes. One of them fits this description very well, and he recently said he thought Tennessee right-hander A.J. Russell could have a Horton-like rise this postseason as the Volunteers try to repeat as champions. He was No. 43 on our Draft Top 100 back in December and had internal brace surgery on his right elbow last June. So far this year, he's thrown a total of 5 2/3 innings, during which he's given up just two hits and a walk while striking out seven. Some think his invisible fastball is the most unhittable heater in the Draft (41 percent miss rate in 2024 and 2025 combined) and that the Tennessee staff will keep his innings limited during the regular season and see him take off when he's dominant in the postseason.
What's wrong with Travis Bazzana? Wrist injury lingering from when he got HBP in college last March? ¨C @DennisNosco
In a word: nothing. The No. 1 overall pick in last year's Draft, Bazzana has played a grand total of 16 games this year, his first full season. The surface slash line doesn't jump out, which is maybe why you're concerned: .258/.347/.409. He has five extra-base hits (a homer, a double and three triples) to go along with three steals. So maybe he's not setting the world on fire, but he's also registering a very low 20 percent miss rate, he's drawing walks and he isn't chasing (16 percent). It's such a small sample, there really is no reason for concern, but I'll point out that even with the relatively pedestrian start, his 126 wRC+ still puts him in the top 25 among all Eastern League hitters. So don't fret, he's doing fine. And he's going to heat up and put your concerns to rest.
Which prospects recently called up to the majors do you believe will benefit their team the most? ¨C @StevieDAles97
We answered this one on this week's MLB Pipeline Podcast. The easy answer was Nick Kurtz, the A's top prospect who we believe has the chance to compete for American League Rookie of the Year honors and is two games into his big league career. In the non-Kurtz category, I picked Rays speedster Chandler Simpson. There might be some question about whether the lack of impact with the bat is going to catch up to him at the highest level, but I think it's going to work, at least for this year (I'm a believer). I think he's going to be a true sparkplug for the Rays offense.
Jim selected Chase Dollander, who has had an uneven start to his big league career, especially on the home runs allowed front. But he has the chance to settle in and provide real stability to a Rockies rotation that needs it. I will say that now that Jac Caglianone has started to play the outfield, we should keep an eye on that situation because his power bat could really help the Royals compete in the AL Central soon.