Pirates seek new heights with new leaders

PITTSBURGH -- Even though he’s been on the job for the better part of a year, Ben Cherington is still technically the Pirates’ new general manager. Same goes for Derek Shelton, Pittsburgh’s rookie manager. They’ve been leading the organization since late November, doing everything except actually watching their team play a game that counts.

Finally, after months of waiting, planning and working behind the scenes amid the uncertainty created by the coronavirus pandemic, the new era of Pirates baseball will officially begin.

The Pirates’ 60-game season starts Friday in St. Louis with Joe Musgrove on the mound, Shelton in the dugout and Cherington overseeing the organization he was hired to build from the ground up. That task could prove to be difficult in a shortened season. The Bucs won’t have as much time to evaluate their returning players, and the canceled Minor League season leaves their alternate training site camp as their only organized form of player development for the time being.

But the shortened season also creates opportunity for the Pirates, who have rallied around the idea that anything can happen between Friday and the end of September. One hot stretch could vault them into the postseason picture, and one sustained losing streak could knock them out.

“Imagine if you were at this point in a regular season, and we were 100 games into a season and every single team was tied,” left-hander Steven Brault said. “It would be a crazy end to the season, and there’s so much that can happen in such a short amount of time. … Just imagine: 100 games into a season and everybody’s tied. Insane. That’s how we’re approaching it, like it’s a 60-game playoff race sprint from the get-go.”

Here’s where the Pirates stand at the starting line.

What needs to go right?
If they want to compete? Just about everything, starting with good health. The Pirates didn’t make many significant changes to their roster after losing 93 games last year, and they’re starting this season without several players who could have been key contributors: Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Gregory Polanco, Luke Maile and Keone Kela. The National League Central is going to be a dogfight, and their lack of depth became an issue when Polanco was sidelined and Maile was injured last week.

In the bigger picture, the most important thing for the Pirates to see this year is progress. They want to see pitching coach Oscar Marin and bullpen coach Justin Meccage help their returning pitchers reach their potential. They want to see Josh Bell, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, among others, emerge as legitimate franchise building blocks. They want to see Shelton maintain the cohesive culture he’s built throughout Spring Training and Summer Camp. They need to show fans that they are, indeed, building toward something better in the future.

Big question: How will the new pitching plan work?
It’s no secret that the Pirates fell behind the analytical curve over the last few years. While they preached the value of two-seamers down in the zone and pitching to contact, forward-thinking organizations were moving the game toward biomechanical analysis and data-driven pitch usage. The Bucs caught up this offseason by hiring Marin, retaining Meccage and actively teaching their pitchers about the importance of analytics.

So how will a group of starters who underperformed last year fare under a system better designed to utilize their strengths? It’s a critical storyline for the present and future of Pittsburgh’s team. If Musgrove takes a step forward, if Trevor Williams bounces back to his 2018 form, if Mitch Keller develops into a top-of-the-rotation starter, if Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl find their niche, if power-armed relievers like Michael Feliz and Clay Holmes finally harness their stuff … yes, there are a lot of ifs. The Pirates hope that means there’s a lot of latent talent ready to be revealed.

Prospect to watch: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Hayes missed nearly three weeks of the Pirates’ Summer Camp workouts after testing positive for COVID-19. The most important issue is obviously his health and safety as he recovers from the virus, and the good news is he was able to get back on the field for a light workout on Monday at PNC Park.

When last we saw the club’s No. 2 prospect in Spring Training, Hayes was making an argument for an early season callup and perhaps even a spot on the Opening Day roster. He is a no-doubt defensive whiz at third base, something the Pirates sorely need to upgrade their defense, and he has worked quite well with hitting coach Rick Eckstein during Spring Training the last two years. So we’ll be watching to see how Hayes looks now that he’s back, how the Bucs handle his return and how long it might be until he’s able to make it to PNC Park.

On the schedule: On the road again and again and again
Travel is going to be different for teams this year, as players and staff will be encouraged to stay at the team hotel rather than venturing out into the city amid the coronavirus pandemic. And the Pirates will get a taste of that new lifestyle quite often early on, as 21 of their first 35 games will take place outside of Pittsburgh. Their early schedule is brutal, too, with series against the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Twins before they face their first opponent who had a losing record last year (the Tigers).

If the Pirates manage to make it through that while remaining competitive, they will have the benefit of playing at home down the stretch. They’ll play 16 of their final 25 games at home. The only downside of that part of the schedule? Their last day off is on Sept. 10, meaning they are scheduled to play 17 consecutive days to end the season.

Team MVP will be ... Bryan Reynolds
You could make a convincing case for Bell, obviously, and we might regret this pick the first time Pittsburgh’s All-Star first baseman bashes a ball into the Allegheny River. But consistency is going to be the key in a 60-game sprint, a schedule that doesn’t provide much time for the kind of slump Bell endured last June and July. And consistency is kind of Reynolds’ M.O., if you didn’t pick up on that last year.

Reynolds was the Pirates’ most valuable player by Wins Above Replacement last year. He has a chance to make an impact at the plate, obviously, as he did while slashing .314/.377/.503 in his rookie season. And after bouncing around all three outfield spots last year, Reynolds will also be given a chance to establish himself in the field as Pittsburgh’s everyday left fielder.

Team Cy Young will be … Joe Musgrove
The dark horse here is Keller, who has dynamic stuff and a better idea of how to use it than he did a year ago. If the rookie right-hander’s ERA this year matches his FIP from last season (3.19), he could very well be the team’s best starting pitcher. But the safer pick is Musgrove, the Opening Day starter who led the Pirates in innings and strikeouts a year ago. Musgrove feels as confident as he ever has in his six-pitch arsenal, and it’s hard not to be optimistic about the fiery competitor considering the results he put together after tweaking his mechanics last September.

Bold prediction: Reynolds wins a batting title
Best of luck to any brave soul who tries to confidently predict literally anything about this most unusual baseball season. But in the spirit of believing that anything can happen, and being appropriately bold, we’ll say that Reynolds brings home the Pirates’ first batting title since Freddy Sanchez hit .344 in 2006. Reynolds ranked seventh in the NL last year with a .314 average, one spot ahead of Newman and his .308 average, albeit 15 points behind 2019 NL batting champ Christian Yelich. But who’s to say Reynolds won’t be even better this year?