Previewing the Pirates' 2025 season

This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf's Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

MIAMI -- Winter is behind us. The Grapefruit League season has come and gone. A new baseball season is finally upon us.

Breathe it in.

The Pirates are looking to improve on their 76-86 records from their last two seasons, entering the year with one of the top pitchers in the game, a deeper lineup and still plenty of questions. Before they take the field against the Marlins on Thursday, let’s do a quick primer on this team:

WHAT NEEDS TO GO RIGHT?

It’s a two-pronged answer, and about as simple a one as possible: The starting pitching needs to live up to expectations, and the offense needs to exceed expectations.

Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller are going to provide the 1-2 punch early, with the hope being that Jared Jones and Johan Oviedo will join them midseason from the injured list, and MLB Top 100 Prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington will find their way to the Majors at some point too. Mix in Bailey Falter and Andrew Heaney, and that’s the makings of a solid rotation.

But who will hit? Bryan Reynolds is coming off an All-Star campaign, Oneil Cruz has potential and Joey Bart just had a fantastic spring. But more young hitters are going to need to take the next step, like Nick Gonzales and Endy Rodríguez. It would also be a huge boost if Ke’Bryan Hayes can stay healthy.

THE GREAT UNKNOWN

Last year, the bullpen added some big names, had big expectations and underachieved. This winter, the focus was on adding more depth and hoping to unlock a couple traits to help build the bullpen in a more traditional way. It worked for Dennis Santana, after all.

There’s a lot riding on David Bednar, too, who went from being an All-Star in 2022 and '23 to falling out of the closer role last September. Manager Derek Shelton has yet to officially name him the team’s closer, but regardless of role, Bednar is going to pitch high-leverage innings. He’s going to need to rebound from last year.

THE TEAM MVP WILL BE…

Cruz was the trendy breakout pick in 2023, but a fractured ankle ended his season in mid-April. He rebounded with a 20-20 season a year ago, but more importantly, he got through it healthy. Now he’s in center field, a position that should fit his athletic gifts like a glove, he made great strides against left-handed pitching last year, and he’s finally a full year removed from his injury. Cruz has the potential to be one of the best, and there was a four-month sample from May to August where his .861 OPS would have led all National League outfielders.

So what is Cruz’s ceiling? Andrew McCutchen can answer that: “There is none.”

THE TEAM CY YOUNG WILL BE ...

The guy you immediately thought of when you read that prompt.

There are some very talented pitchers on this staff, but Skenes is a Cy Young favorite across the National League, not just on the Pirates. After perhaps the greatest rookie pitching performance in Pittsburgh history, where he went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA and set a new team rookie record with 170 strikeouts, Skenes has quickly become one of the game’s brightest stars. He added a new two-seamer and cutter to his already lethal pitch mix this winter, and the 22-year-old face of the franchise will get his first Opening Day start Thursday. There are other-worldly expectations surrounding him, and he just might reach them.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Skenes won't just win the Pirates' Cy Young -- he will win the National League Cy Young Award.

He had a very compelling case a year ago and finished third despite only making 23 starts. This year not only will he break camp with the Major League team, but he likely won’t pitch on the extra day of rest like he did all of 2024. Assuming he stays healthy, he’s going to make significantly more starts in his sophomore season than he did as a rookie, which is going to lead to more innings, more strikeouts and really just more of everything. The sample size was the one thing that held him back from winning a Cy Young out of the gate. If he can go a whole season, he could be in his own stratosphere compared to his peers.